Nikol Pashinyan, who has traditionally started the government sessions in recent months with positive signals about the unblocking, either consciously lies about the expected prospector has no deep understanding of the economic and political geography of the region. Against the background of the work of the commission of deputy prime ministers, which has been going on for more than a year, it is still not clear by what nodes the infrastructure left in the blockade in our territory will be connected to other means of transport communication. To date, there is no clear calculation of what positive change in the costs of businesses will be caused by these new infrastructures.
The promises of an imminent economic flight are, of course, ridiculous, as no regional project is integrated into Armenia’s infrastructure, instead, they are an integral part of the communication channels between Azerbaijan and Turkey. It turns out that the unblocking of Armenia is first of all economically beneficial for those two countries, as they get the opportunity to connect directly with each other. No information has been provided yet as to whether during the trilateral talks it was clarified how the infrastructures will be connected, for example, the Yeraskh-Julfa-Ordubad-Meghri-Horadiz railway, which was so drummed by Pashinyan.
The most important issue is the safety of transportation in the territory of Azerbaijan, surely no one can guarantee it, in that case who needs such an unprotected road or railway? Its supposed economic value is completely zero except for security. Meanwhile, the guarantee of security and the sovereignty of infrastructure should have been the starting point of the negotiations.
The catastrophic economic downturn in 2020, the unrecorded double-digit economic growth in 2021 and a number of other macroeconomic indicators do not inspire grounds for optimism at all. Against this background, if Armenia liberalizes trade with neighboring countries and de facto enemies, the national economy, first of all, agriculture, will simply collapse. The Turkish economy is even more diversified than the Russian market, out of competition with local products. Azerbaijan’s economy, in turn, is three times larger than Armenia’s. In case of opening the borders, it will be practically impossible to resist this hostile expansion, reasonable restrictions and supporting the domestic producers in every possible way must be declared a priority. If not,
The Azerbaijani capital is confidently aiming to enter the Armenian market in case of a successful outcome of the bilateral negotiations. This means that our national goal should be to give high growth rates to the domestic economy, at least to compete with neighboring countries, and in some cases to win. If our society was solvent and stood out with its national ideology, it would pay more for domestic products and thus resist the soft invasion of the enemy. Unfortunately, society is neither solvent nor a bearer of national ideology.
What happens? We agree on the issue of the Armenian Genocide, but we do not see any danger or threat in opening the border, friendship with the Turks, consumption of Turkish goods and services? Meanwhile, the important thing is the behavior conditioned by the national consciousness, which is in fact distorted and is completely in the realm of hostile desires.