Days ago I’ve predicted, that Pashinyan’s gov is going to sign a “Peace treaty” with AZ justifying it with a “desire to escape a new war” & finally giving up the fight for Armenian Artsakh. Leaving aside that this a politics of appeasement, let me make another prediction.
In case of no surprising development in the upcoming weeks, a formal document will be signed between ARM & AZ, which will be the base for the Peace treaty or the treaty itself. It will leave Artsakh to Azerbaijan with some ceremonial “guarantees” for Artsakh Armenians
Straight after the new capitulation is signed a document on establishing relations between ARM & TR will be signed establishing diplomatic relations & opening borders with a corridor for TR & AZ through ARM Syunik. ARM’s national economy will be dumped by the TR’s economy.
Then the anti-Russian stand of Pashinyan’s gov will be strengthened with a clear aim to take the Russian military base out of Armenia. For this current anti-Russian sentiments among the population will be further constructed.
Armenian state will be just a Turkish proxy with no real independence – a dispensable state. Moreover, Turkey & Azerbaijani will make new territorial claims, particularly arguing Syunik & Tavush regions as Turkish lands (They already do this on the level of rhetoric).
The only way to stop this process is to remove the current collaboration government of Pashinyan & rebuild Armenia’s strategic alliance with Iran & Russia. Otherwise Independent Republic of Armenia will be just another closed page of our long history. Maybe final page