YEREVAN — RFE/RL Armenia’s snap elections are aimed at resolving a political crisis that has engulfed the country since fighting last autumn in the war against Azerbaijan over the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh.
However, analysts warn that the results on June 20 could spark renewed political violence in the streets of Yerevan.
Although there are 21 parties and four alliances taking part, the contest has become a power struggle between two main forces: Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian’s Civil Contract party, and the newly created Armenia Alliance of former President Robert Kocharian.
Pashinian’s popularity has plummeted since he signed a Russian-brokered cease-fire in November 2020 that halted Azerbaijan’s military advance in and around Nagorno-Karabakh. The deal also restored Baku’s sovereignty over the seven districts around Nagorno-Karabakh that had been controlled by ethnic Armenian forces since the early 1990s — a development that spawned Yerevan’s ongoing crisis.
As a result, Pashinian’s approval rating has fallen from 60 percent before the six-week war to about 24 percent. Meanwhile, support for Kocharian’s Armenia Alliance has jumped from 7 percent to about 24 percent since it was founded in early May.
That means a close race for first place is likely between Civil Contract and Armenia Alliance. What remains unclear is whether either group will be able to control a majority in the parliament — either on their own or by building a governing coalition.
Threat Of Violence
The emotionally charged rhetoric of the election campaign has raised concerns of postelection political violence.
The U.S. Embassy in Yerevan on June 16 warned U.S. citizens to be wary of demonstrations during the following two weeks, another sign that clashes between rival political factions are seen as possible.
Political analyst Benyamin Poghosian says that if the results show Pashinian’s Civil Contract party with more than 50 percent of the vote, empowering it to form a one-party government, “the outcome will not be recognized by at least one part of the opposition represented by Armenia Alliance — and perhaps also other parts of the opposition.”
“After that, developments could be unpredictable,” Poghosian warned. “It will certainly lead to street clashes.”
If Pashinian’s Civil Contract fails to win 50 percent of the vote but is able to build a coalition with other parties, Poghosian says the threat of political violence is less clear. He says it’s also difficult to predict how Pashinian’s supporters will behave if a coalition government is built around Kocharian’s Armenia Alliance.
Kocharian warned in late May that his alliance will stage street protests if it determines Armenian authorities have rigged the results in favor of Pashinian’s party. Other opposition forces have also not ruled out postelection protests.
Pashinian has repeatedly said on the campaign trail that he expects his party to win at least 60 percent of the vote. In what close observers say is an unprecedented move, the Civil Contract on June 14 confirmed it had arranged daylong rallies in Yerevan’s two largest squares for four consecutive days after the vote.
Pashinian has said that the June 21 rally on Yerevan’s Republic Square would celebrate a Civil Contract victory. But neither Pashinian nor his associates have explained why they would continue demonstrations from June 22 to 24.
Some opposition figures and critics of Pashinian have speculated that he is making contingency plans for a possible defeat. In that case, they claim, his supporters could put pressure on the Central Election Commission or provoke violent clashes with opposition protesters to have the results annulled.
Political analyst Armen Baghdasarian says the toxic campaign rhetoric of both Civil Contract and Armenia Alliance has raised the prospects of political violence after the vote. “The main messages of these two political forces is to destroy each other,” Baghdasarian told RFE/RL. “If this was a boxing match, what we are seeing now is the stage when two boxers stare each other down, trying to intimidate the opponent.”