Putting aside the conspiracy, the factor of external forces in terms of bringing Nikol Pashinyan to power, let’s try to understand what is the main reason for Pashinyan’s tragedy. Some will think that a random person who could not even get a higher education, by doing crazy things in the street, succeeded with his rhetorical skills, becoming, albeit a small, but head of state. We must disappoint those who think so. In fact, it is a great personal tragedy, which he may not have realized yet. It takes time.
When you want to discredit someone, appoint them to a position that is not in their “clothes”. This is what happened in Pashinyan’s case. Sorry, the short ones try to get taller (once the fashion for 10 cm high platform shoes became a lifeline even for such men), the ignorant try to look smart, doing sophistication and resorting to other tricks. Complicated people are not dangerous as long as they do not become decision-makers.
Complicated, Hitler not only killed tens of millions of people but also plunged Europe and the USSR into decades of economic and social decline.
In the 1990s, a minister in a ministry was appointed by someone who had not previously worn a suit or tie. During the TV show, this person was constrained, his face was sweaty, he often straightened his tie and the collar of his suit. That dress was not his. The movements were innocent movements, as the probability of making a mistake was unlikely (it seems that the Armenian equivalent of this word “clumsy” does not fully express the phenomenon). In the 1990s, Armenia was a state of a part of the Armenian people that had partially restored its national dignity, and the “winner” was not judged (it is not comparable, but Khrushchev also took off his shoes and hit the table at the UN session). Any high-ranking representative of the Republic of Armenia was highly respected during his visits abroad. You had a high sense of pride when the President of your country was received with dignity by the leaders of the powerful countries of the world. At one point you thought you were a citizen of a serious and powerful state.
Now, Pashinyan’s lack of self-confidence, who did not appear in the “suit” on him, betrays his restrained movements (even after 3 years), bent shoulders, bent body. he seems to want to disappear so as not to attract too much attention. But it’s too late. He has come և no one can deny that. A person who goes to a place that does not correspond to his level of culture and development, where the environment is unusual and restrictive (luxury restaurant or mansion, expensive dishes և delicacies…), he will definitely make unobtrusive movements. the tie will appear on the soup plate, the fork on the floor, etc., as in the case of uncircumcised women, when they break something in the kitchen every day.
Pashinyan’s restraint differs from that minister’s restraint in that he smashed everything left and right for reasons of self-affirmation and self-confidence. In addition to the well-known things, it contributed to the deterioration of interpersonal relations, the degradation of society almost eliminated everything that “glued” the nation. His personal tragedy turned into a national tragedy. Although he did not realize it either. He will leave the post when he realizes his personal tragedy, no imaginary or real forces will be able to prevent it. More generally, his personal tragedy lies in the fact that he did not realize that in 2018 he met a great opportunity to strengthen the Armenian statehood. Even if some forces contributed to his “revelation”, he could deviate from the roadmap ordered for him. He was not convinced that fate had met such an opportunity. Although, once upon a time, it was felt that it was split and its second half acted as a savior…
It is difficult to imagine how this young man will live the rest of his life after his resignation with his personal tragedy. And especially to arrive when he realizes what a tragedy he has caused to his people…
Gagik Vardanyan
Risk mitigation and threat assessment ARMENIA:
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The Great Game #3 and Armenia has a key position: being sovereign and/or divided by the current superpowers.
The Great Game in the 19th century was between the UK and Russia. The Great Game in the 20th century was between the US (and NATO) and the Soviet Union (and the Warsaw Pact). Now a new Great Game is underway with mostly the same players.
The proxies include Iran, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Pakistan (in varying composition and deployed by the US, Russia and or China depending on the situation and need).
Concerning Armenia and Artsakh, this has surfaced since mid-2018. According to sources, the start was: US 2018 withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. Iran’s squeeze started.
Also, Bolton’s (US National Security Adviser) diplomatic tour of the capitals of #Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan were used not only to exert influence in the Caucasus, traditionally Russian sphere of influence, but more to put pressure on Iran. Azerbaijan was strategically crucial to Iran’s northern border and important. Armenia with good relations with Iran, of course, but in a different context.
Since 2018 according to sources it has been suggested as early as 2018 that an Artsakh agreement and a corridor of Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan fits into the agenda. The opening of the Turkish-Armenian border has also been discussed. As an aside that Turkey is trying to take advantage of this with their Turkic World aim.
Also knowing that there have been public/private conversations since November 2020 between Pashinyan and Aliyev and that they have known each other since 2018 and according to sources possibly earlier. The way in which both leaders are immortalized in photos also speaks volumes, their facial expressions and non-verbal body language do not radiate enmity or discomfort. Strange considering all that happened between the two countries.
The striking self-assured attitude and actions of both Turkey and Azerbaijan (read Erdogan and Aliyev) since the outbreak of the Artsakh war, Israel’s arms deliveries to Baku and Azerbaijan’s little-known NATO training sessions raise questions.
The pressing question now arises, what will Pashinyan and the rest of the band in Yerevan decide. Defend Armenian sovereignty and self-determination or (un)consciously implement a different agenda and have Armenia divided up as this has been elaborated and concocted by others years earlier.
The latter will mean the end of Armenia and Artsakh in their current form and how many (personal/financial) promises ($5 billion or more) and mutual agreements are all this worth?
Once you have lost it you will not get it back and this applies not only to your good name and honour but also to your precious country.