Germany’s parliament is pressing ahead with a motion condemning the Armenian massacres by the Ottoman Turks during the first world war as a “genocide”, in a move that will probably infuriate Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkish president, and threaten the fragile EU-Turkey deal on refugees.
The vote, scheduled for June 2, comes amid a diplomatic scandal over a German comedian’s obscene anti-Erdogan poem and growing concerns in the EU about a central element in the refugee deal — the planned visa-free travel accord for Turks in the Schengen zone.
The motion could further complicate the intensive efforts of Angela Merkel, German Chancellor, to placate Erdogan and persuade him to drop threats to scrap the refugee accord out of anger at what he sees as EU-based disrespect for Turkey.
Ms Merkel could meet the Turkish leader again as soon as next weekend, when she is visiting Istanbul for a UN conference on emergency aid.
The Bundestag has been discussing a possible genocide motion on the Armenian massacres since well before last year’s 100th anniversary of the killings, in which up to 1.5m Armenians died. But even after a passionate parliamentary debate in April 2015, Ms Merkel’s government resisted efforts led by the opposition Green party to hold a formal vote.
Even before the refugee crisis, Ms Merkel was concerned about the potential damage to German-Turkish relations and to the feelings of nearly 4m people of Turkish origin living in Germany.
However, the government decided last year it could no longer hold the line in the face of some politicians in the ruling conservative-social democrat coalition breaking ranks and a wave of explicit genocide declarations coming from elsewhere, including the Pope.
After negotiations with the Green party, party managers of the CDU/CSU and SPD have agreed to back a genocide motion. This means it is almost certain to be passed.
While the text has yet to be published, the agenda item already makes the intentions clear: “In remembrance and commemoration of the genocide of the Armenians and other Christian minorities in the Ottoman Empire 101 years ago.”
The long delay in the vote means it comes at an even more awkward time than a year ago. However, Cem Özdemir, the Turkish-origin co-leader of the Greens, told Bild am Sonntag newspaper: “It can well be that there will be anger in Ankara. But the Bundestag is not letting itself be blackmailed by a despot like Mr Erdogan.”
Many MPs are already furious that Ms Merkel permitted prosecutors last month to pursue a criminal case against Jan Böhmermann, a television comedian who read out a poem accusing Mr Erdogan of having sex with animals, and “kicking Kurds and beating up Christians while watching child porn”.
German political leaders have also expressed reservations about the visa-free travel plan, insisting Turkey must first fulfil tough conditions, including reforming its anti-terror laws. Mr Erdogan has threatened to reopen Turkey’s borders for refugees heading for Greece if he does not get an early travel deal.
Horst Seehofer, CSU leader and Ms Merkel’s most important domestic political critic, warned this weekend in the Welt newspaper that it was “dangerous” for Germany to be so despondent on Turkey. Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the foreign minister from the SPD, also told Tagesspiegel newspaper that it was up to Turkey to meet the conditions for visa-free travel. “Turkey knows what needs to be done,” he said.