Davutoğlu’s Yerevan visit may signal thaw with Armenia

In the first diplomatic push since Turkey and Armenia signed normalization protocols in 2009, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu is due to visit Yerevan next week — a move that appears significant for the restoration of diplomatic ties between Ankara and Yerevan, two neighbors that have become estranged over several issues.

While returning from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) ministerial council in Kiev on Thursday, Davutoğlu stated his attendance at the upcoming Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC) meeting in Yerevan next week.

The Turkish minister noted that the invitation had come from the Armenian side and that he accepted after consulting Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

“Turkey is one of the founding members of the organization. Its headquarters are located in İstanbul, where Armenia, which is a member of the organization, also has a representative. I received the invitation and decided to accept it after consulting the president,” Davutoğlu said.

During the OSCE meeting in Kiev, Davutoğlu met with Azeri counterpart Elmar Mammadyarov and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to hold talks on the thorny Nagorno-Karabakh issue, which is key for the resumption of Turkish relations with Armenia.

Davutoğlu was not able to hold a bilateral meeting with Armenian counterpart Eduard Nalbandyan in Kiev because the Turkish foreign minister had a full schedule, said one senior Turkish diplomat, speaking to Today’s Zaman on condition of anonymity. Noting that it was not clear whether Davutoğlu and Nalbandyan would hold a meeting in Yerevan, the diplomat added that a meeting between the foreign ministers may take place nonetheless.

“Although the visit is part of the BSEC meeting, it is still very important, as it is the first high-level visit from the Turkish side to Armenia. The visit is also important as it comes at a time in which Turkey has accelerated its efforts to find a path to permanent peace in the Caucasus. The visit will enable the sides to discuss the issues in the region,” said the diplomat.

A historic reconciliation process was launched between Turkey and Armenia in 2009, when the two sides signed twin protocols to normalize diplomatic relations, but the move was not well received by Azerbaijan. The protocols, signed in Zurich, shook Turkish-Azerbaijani relations, as the Nagorno-Karabakh territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has yet to be resolved.

The ratification of the protocols stalled after Turkey insisted Armenia first agree to find a solution to the long-standing Nagorno-Karabakh issue. The issue of Armenia’s withdrawal from the Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven adjacent territories is important to Ankara, which has frequently signaled that this step would pave the way for the opening of its border with Armenia.

Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993 in solidarity with Azerbaijan. Armenian armed forces had occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan’s territory in 1992, including the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

Armenian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Tigran Balayan also spoke to Today’s Zaman about the visit, saying: “It is the BSEC ministerial meeting, and we sent invitations to the ministers of all BSEC member states. That’s it. In terms of Armenian-Turkish relations, we have signed protocols; the only [further] move could be the ratification and implementation of those protocols.”

‘It is never too late for peace’

Turkish foreign policy experts believe that a normalization of relations between Ankara and Yerevan would lighten Turkey’s foreign policy burden.

Yaşar Yakış, a former Turkish foreign minister and current president of the Ankara-based Center for Strategic Communication (STRATİM), stated that Turkey and Armenia should do everything in their power to find a solution to the disputes.

“However, while discussing solutions, the two countries should also take into account the sensitivities of third parties. Previously, due to Azerbaijan’s opposition, their reconciliation couldn’t be realized. Now the sides should take lessons from the past. And if they act according to these lessons, the chances for peace will be higher,” Yakış told Today’s Zaman.

Özdem Sanberk, a former diplomat and head of Ankara-based International Strategic Research Organization (USAK), considers Davutoğlu’s visit an important step, adding that it is an indication that the two sides have agreed to accelerate their efforts towards a solution for the region.

“It is hard to say whether the protocols can reach their aim, because there are many actors involved in this issue. But the timing of the visit is important. Any step for peace is never too late,” Sanberk told Today’s Zaman.

Mehmet Fatih Öztarsu, an analyst who has lived and studied in Armenia and specializes in the Caucasus, noted that developments might occur after this visit if Yerevan appreciates the points made by the Turkish side. “If Armenia reads this visit positively, a new process may start between the two countries,” Öztarsu told Today’s Zaman.

Davutoğlu recently stated that Turkey will do all in its power to ensure permanent peace in the Caucasus, adding that Turkey wishes to normalize its ties with Armenia.

“Our desire is the normalization of ties between Turkey and Armenia, the resolution of the dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia and the maintenance of permanent peace in the South Caucasus,” Davutoğlu said.

Erdoğan recently reiterated Ankara’s commitment to the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, saying, “Karabakh is not just Azerbaijan’s problem, but also Turkey’s problem.” Diplomatic efforts for a solution to the conflict have failed for the past 20 years, but Azerbaijan has vowed to reclaim its territories by force if necessary.

Such a conflict has the potential to destabilize the region. It would also hamper any attempt at normalization between Turkey and Armenia.

Ahead of the upcoming election period, the government seems to be fine-tuning its foreign policy, and its rapprochement with Armenia may be one aspect of this. Sanberk noted that although the government’s aim might be merely to tidy up its foreign policy image before the elections, such moves towards Armenia are still of great importance.