Nikol Pashinyan, having held the position of Prime Minister of Armenia for more than five years, is still unable to decide what kind of foreign policy he is actually pursuing,
where he is taking Armenia. At first glance, it may seem that the direction of his foreign policy is very clear: to take Armenia out of Russia’s sphere of influence and integrate it into the Western security system, so that Armenia’s security is not guaranteed by Russia and its army, but by NATO. But in order to neutralize Russia’s displeasure and opposition, Pashinyan is maneuvering, trying to convince the Russians that he is not pushing Russia out of Armenia, but that Russia is voluntarily leaving Armenia. The result of fleeing from Russia and not getting asylum in the West is that Pashinyan’s eyes are directed towards Turkey as the only reliable guarantor of his and his government’s security, the price of which can only be the unconditional Turkification of Armenia. In an interview given to the Italian newspaper La Repubblica, Pashinyan reveals the bankruptcy and failure of his foreign policy.
Pashinyan justifies the change in Armenia’s security concept or geopolitical vector by two circumstances: Russia’s weakness and Russia’s desire to leave Armenia. “Today, when Russia needs weapons, ammunition, and munitions, in this situation it is understandable that even if it wanted to, the Russian Federation could not provide for Armenia’s security needs. In other words, this example should show us that in the field of security, to depend or be attached to only one place is a strategic mistake in itself. And it is only after we have tasted the bitter fruits of that mistake post facto that we make some very vague attempts to diversify our security policy.”
Pashinyan, who came to power as a result of a color coup, declared that the coup had no foreign political context or foreign sponsors. Meanwhile, all the color revolutions were organized with an anti-Russian connotation, and the only problem of their sponsors was to get those countries out “under” Russian influence. On the one hand, it says that the Armenian government is taking steps to diversify the security policy, on the other hand, Pashinyan accuses Russia of leaving Armenia. “When talking with our Russian partners, we sometimes voice our opinion and our assessment that, on the contrary, we see that Russia itself is leaving the region due to the steps taken or not taken by it. But there are processes that, of course, lead to such a thought that the same scenario can be repeated,
Is Armenia diversifying its foreign policy by pushing Russia out of Armenia, or is Russia leaving because of its actions? Pashinyan’s logic is not so clear. As for the statement about “the same scenario repeating itself”, it simply means that Pashinyan expects that a color coup will take place in Russia as well, that Russian President Vladimir Putin will be removed from power, and chaos, and anarchy will begin in Russia, as a result of which the Russian army will leave the territory of Armenia. :
In 1917, according to different estimates, as a result of a coup organized by the special services of England or Germany, the tsarist government was overthrown, the Russian emperor Nicholas II and his family were shot, civil war and anarchy began in Russia, Russia left the South Caucasus, but only for 3 months. Pashinyan dreams of repeating this scenario. Since he doesn’t know history at all, and for that he uses only the events he knows when drawing historical parallels, then in the near future we will look at what tragedy the “repetition of the scenario” could be for Armenia.
But the problem is not only removing Russia, with which Pashinyan is going to close the issue of the old and non-working security system of Armenia. By rejecting the Russian security system, Pashinyan is unable to receive security guarantees from the West. Speaking about the reasons why the peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan has not been signed so far, he says. “Why is the document not signed?” Now, in practice, we have reached the places in the negotiations of the peace treaty, which refers to the guarantees, which are the guarantees that will bring peace in practice after the signing of this paper. As soon as the agreement on these guarantees is reached, it means that in practice the agreement can be considered as reached.
Since these negotiations are proceeding with the mediation of the USA and the European Union, Pashinyan, in fact, admits that these countries do not provide security guarantees to Armenia, they do not guarantee that if Armenia signs a peace agreement with Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan violates that agreement, the US will the EU intervene and force Azerbaijan to fulfill its obligations under the agreement? The same applies to Artsakh. Pashinyan has been saying for more than a year that the Russian peacekeepers should leave and other international forces or mechanisms should be introduced to ensure the rights and security of the Armenians of Artsakh, but no one has committed that they want to take on such a role.
In fact, the West is pushing Pashinyan to implement an anti-Russian policy, to push Russia out of Armenia, but he does not want to occupy the vacated place, to replace Russia. Rejecting Russia and being rejected by the West, Pashinyan’s only hope remains Turkey. Pashinyan explains the Turkishization of Armenia as follows. “The journalist asked: How do you position yourself or are you between the West and Russia? I said: You know, it is actually a wrong impression that we are between Russia and the West. We are actually between Georgia, Turkey, Iran, and Azerbaijan, and therefore, the security interests of our state first of all force us to have stable and orderly relations with our neighbors, without, of course, undermining the role and influence of geopolitical centers. significance and importance for our region and, of course, for our country as well.” While not underestimating the role of geopolitical centers, Pashinyan understands at the same time that only Turkey can give him and his government real security guarantees. He constantly bows down to the Turkish authorities, makes various concessions, denies the genocide, and expresses his readiness to change the history of the Armenian people, but Turkey continues to oppress, showing that only the elimination and Turkification of Armenia can satisfy the Turkish authorities. Instead of “stable and orderly relations”, Turkey demands submission and absolute obedience. Being rejected and despised both by Russia, the West, and Turkey,