It has long been clear that Turkey aims to create an intermediate, loose, yet distinct geosystem in Central Asia – a geosystem that will move and act autonomously, taking advantage of the competition of the Euro-Atlantic West and the looming collectivization of Eurasian states, with the Russia-China system at its core. What is happening in Armenia is directly related to Ankara’s goal.
Turkey is the de facto leader of this scheme, which consists mainly of Turkic-speaking countries. Also, the most powerful country in the system, Pakistan, is in the shadow of its great rival, India, but also of its great ally, China, which puts it in second place, relative to the one devoid of great neighbors and necessary allies.
The core of this loose association in Central and South Asia is the Turkey-Azerbaijan system. And the thorn between them is Armenia. That’s why Armenia must be dismantled by Turkey and Azerbaijan. A victory against Armenia, and its consequent geopolitical mutilation and satellite-isation, will further strengthen the unity of the Turkish-Azeri scheme.
In addition, it will provide Turkey with the prestige and geopolitical weight it needs in order to attract the rest of the countries in the region towards its orbit. Moreover, having neutralized Armenia geopolitically, Azerbaijan will become more independent from Moscow and will be able to turn even more towards Turkey, strengthening the Turko-Azeri scheme.
Don’t let Armenia be left alone
More generally, the mutilation and consequential geopolitical immobilization of Armenia, which Baku seeks under the leadership of Ankara, will strengthen the cohesion of the Turko-centric Central Asian geosystem and its independence from external interference, and will further strengthen Turkey’s role as an independent actor, which will balance between the West and the East and blackmail both.
In other words, it will strengthen Turkey’s bargaining chips and role in the emerging international system. And it will be easier for a more strengthened Turkey to proceed with the “big trick” it wants to achieve. That is, in the geopolitical inactivity of Greece and the Republic of Cyprus, Turkey will have less to fear from backlash from powerful actors and will have far more cards in its hands to negotiate with them.
This is why Greece’s defence begins in Armenia. So simple. Greek diplomacy must find every way to support Armenia. This is because within the unified Eurasian system there are no isolated neighborhoods that are cut off from the rest. What happens in one part affects the rest.
And the Turko-Azeri attack on Armenia makes Turkey more dangerous for Greece.
Clean and clear.
In conclusion, supporting Armenia is not an act of solidarity towards a people with whom we have much in common, it is a move necessary for the security and geopolitical functioning of Greece within a single and indivisible geosystem.
Greek diplomacy and foreign policy, which shows in recent years that it has been freed from the syndrome of provincialism that afflicted it in the past, must take action. And of course, Greece must act independently, without waiting for the rest of the European countries, which do not have similar issues to Turkey and its friends in Central Asia.
Konstantinos Grivas is a professor of Geopolitics and Modern Military Technologies and director of the Department of War Theory and Analysis at the Military School of Guards. He also teaches Geography of Security in the Wider Middle East at the Department of Turkish and Contemporary Asian Studies, University of Athens. He is a regular contributor to SLPress.