Active negotiations were, to an extent, unexpected in Armenia-Azerbaijan relations as the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs are aware this phase is important for both Armenia and Azerbaijan, political scientist Hrant Melik-Shahnazaryan told reporters on Monday.
According to him, Azerbaijan is now unprepared for war.
“Nevertheless, no serious developments should be expected. A presidential meeting is the most that can be expected. To break the deadlock in the talks, the co-chairs only have to organize a meeting. And one can hardly say whether or not they will succeed. It will depend on the events on the battlefield,” Mr Melik-Shahnazaryan said.
According to him, the intensified negotiating process has overlapped the regional developments, particularly Iran’s cooperation with the Six. Russia-US regional cooperation has been restarted and Azerbaijan is sparing no efforts to keep border tensions.
“I can assure you Azerbaijan is succeeding. It launches actions when any regional developments get under way,” Mr Melik-Shahnazaryan said.
As regards a possibility of new war, the expert said that he does not see Azerbaijan is prepared for that as it is unprepared for resuming hostilities either in military or economic terms.
“Social problems are very grave in Azerbaijan, and the country is not going to receive any support even from its strategic ally, Turkey. Therefore Azerbaijan cannot have any military success, whereas the Armenian side has high chances,” Mr Melik-Shahnazaryan said.
Thus, the only thing Azerbaijan can do is to create tensions on the border thereby getting political dividends.
The OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs’ visits should not be linked to other European officials’ visits, as Europe’s task is to map out possible developments. Armenia’s role is increasing as Iran is trying to stress Armenia’s role in the region.
So the task is to make Azerbaijan face permanent border tension thereby divesting it of this “monopoly right.”