Armenia lacks not only a vision of economic development but also of the country in general, Doctor of Economics, Professor Tatul Manaseryan told Panorama.am in an interview on Thursday, summing up the economic year.
According to him, development tendencies have been observed in the country this year, but they do not stem from the socio-economic policy of the state.
“The development is mostly due to the consistent efforts made by the private sector in these difficult times… In other words, the private sector is paving the way for itself,” said the economist, adding that the economy is mainly developing by inertia.
According to him, although Armenia is in the process of recovery after the 2020 Artsakh war, the authorities still have no idea how to get the country out of the current situation.
He also denounced the economy minister’s unrealistic economic growth forecasts for the next year.
“In fact, we need to restore the economy, and clear priorities must be set for it. First of all, bonuses, representation expenses and car purchases for officials must be ruled out for the time being. Until the country stabilizes, let the officials go to work on foot or use public transport. It has always been the case in Artsakh, that’s why there are no rifts between officials and the people, as in Armenia,” Manaseryan said.
The economist considers the rule of the current leadership a “bigger disaster” for the country, than the war and the earthquake. He expressed surprise at the silence of the intellectuals, who do not react to the developments taking place in the country.
“Those who remain silent are no less accomplices than those, who are in power today,” the economist said.
Perhaps this will be supportive to strengthen the state-building efforts of the country also:
It is said that a country is as strong as having the capacity to effectively and efficiently combat (transnational) serious organised crime, illicit financial flows, bribery and corruption by well-equipped police, intelligence and judicial services.
Knowing that after the fall of the Soviet Union, an institutionally corrupt system and the “vor v zakone” were rampant in the newly created situation. A mix of old political and KGB (now FSB, SVR and GRu) structures and organised crime, cooperating and providing protection (“krysha”).
Also knowing that bribery and corruption are all over the world and undermine states from within. State revenues flow into the wrong pockets instead of going to what they are meant for, the building of a country and its people. Because a country is nothing more and nothing less than its people.
Also understanding and acknowledging, that relatively new states (as in this case Armenia since the collapse of the USSR) do not always have this internal undermining under control. Again my hobbyhorse, everything must be in balance (the force field of good and evil).
Therefore, a few identifying factors with which Yerevan can pursue the good, just a free piece of advice:
Gradual forecasts by flagging risks like: Money Laundering, Bribery, Corruption, Terrorism financing, Evasion of capital and taxes, international sanctions and or other forms of assets by [groups of] individuals [e.g. PEP’s terrorists or facilitators], [transnational and fluid] serious organised crime groups, illicit/legal business corporations and or entities [e.g. front stores, shell companies] and or NGOs/governmental administrations and or other [supra, inter]national bodies/agencies.
Pre-monitoring crime behaviour by flagging actors can supply financial crime pattern analysis:
Geographical, Sociological/psychological/intuitive, Political and economic, Cultural and demographical and Groups/families/neighbourhood/individual-based actors.
All these factors play a role in recognising the risks mentioned above and can be assessed. It is often said that you should know your customer and know whom you are doing business with, but in the first instance, a country should take the lead and set a good example. Trust in the rule of law must be guaranteed at all times and this must actually be protected and guaranteed.
It is going too far to name all the Red Flags in the reconnaissance system, but see this as a guideline on how to start and shape it.
All the fine words of the IMF, World Bank, UN, FATF, ADB, EBRD and other institutions and the (partial) fulfilment of all preconditions by Armenia produce nothing more than fine political reports. What matters is that the pesticide actually works and achieves its goal.
The good thing is that this is where the real difference between neighbouring Azerbeidjan and Turkey is made.
The difference between a good name or a bad standing.
Good luck and if needed, let me know.