The statements by Ibrahim Kalin, the spokesperson of Turkish President Recept Tayyip Erdogan, give clear signals that Turkey and Russia collaborated very actively in the past to coerce Armenia into concessions, according to an Ankara-based political analyst.
In recent comments to the paper, Cengiz Aktar referred to the processes initiated back in 2008 (“football diplomacy”), and the subsequent Zurich Protocols which he said implied progress over Karabakh. “Russia was very active in that period if you remember – although it was not a Russian initiative. Yet the statement makes clear that there were other developments running parallel with the Armenia-Turkey processes,” he said, commenting upon Kalin’s speech delivered at Ankara Yildirim Beyazit University
According to Paul Stronski, a senior fellow specializing in Russia and Eurasia Affairs at Carnegie Endowment, a Russian-Turkish transaction over Karabakh is absolutely likely albeit not in line with OSCE Minsk Group format”. He said that he even predicts a successful outcome in the region in case of an undermined influence by the West (US and OSCE Minsk Group) and challenges to the Armenian-Russian relations.
Stronski he also highlighted possible changes in the US-Armenia relations, hinting also their future impact on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement talks. He cited particularly US National Security Advisor John Bolton’s recent statement – expressing hope that there will be chances for a real settlement after the parliamentary elections in Armenia.