Serob Marutyan
For some time now, information has been circulating in the Armenian press and public-political discourse that Artsakh State Minister Ruben Vardanyan will resign in the near future. And last week “Hraparak” wrote that the issue has been decided and the Russian side is not against it, so the decree will be issued in a few days.
Especially after the President of Artsakh Arayik Harutyunyan announced that he will make a speech on the 23rd of the month, these conversations became more objective.
After the appointment of Ruben Vardanyan as Minister of State of Artsakh, especially when the Lachin corridor was blocked, rumors began to circulate that Azerbaijan also decided to block the road due to Vardanyan’s person, making it clear that the latter is not an acceptable person for it and the road will be opened when he leaves Artsakh. This last thesis was strengthened especially during the panel discussion held within the framework of the Munich conference, when the president of Azerbaijan personally announced that he is ready to start negotiations with the “Armenian minorities of Karabakh” only if Ruben Vardanyan leaves Artsakh. A rather tense and intriguing situation has been created. On the one hand, we have Artsakh, which has been under siege for more than two months. On the other hand, we have the unfriendly attitude of Azerbaijan towards the Minister of State of Artsakh and the precondition that the blockade will be lifted when the latter leaves.
It is difficult to say exactly why Baku focused on the person of Ruben Vardanyan. Perhaps the answer to the question should be found in the thought expressed by Aliyev that according to him, Ruben Vardanyan is “someone exported from Russia”. If this is the reason, it is possible that Baku is afraid of the possible Abkhazization of Artsakh. especially since the Russians are constantly advancing on the Ukrainian front and the West has already started talking loudly about the critical shortage of Ukrainian armed forces and weapons. Maybe Baku is just trying to start some behind-the-scenes trade with Moscow by focusing on Ruben Vardanyan. Let’s note that the basis of these theses is the assumption that Aliyev considers Vardanyan a person brought by Russia.
It is possible that in Baku they consider that, in their own words, “negotiations with the Armenian minorities of Karabakh” is their, that is, Azerbaijan’s, internal matter, and they do not want to have discussions on this issue with the “boy from outside”. According to another version, Azerbaijan, in fact, has already started to moderate the internal political life of Artsakh and even decides the local officials. Moreover, he does it in the language of blackmail. If this scenario turns out to be the most realistic, then if Ruben Vardanyan resigns, a very bad precedent will be created, according to which Stepanakert retreats and submits to Baku. This will also cause introspective moods inside Artsakh, and will raise another “mini-euphoric” wave in Baku, saying, “Look, we got what we wanted, and in any case, when Stepanakert doesn’t do something as we want,
What will happen next will be seen in a few days. But now the ball is in Stepanakert’s court. The whole future of Artsakh will depend on how the Artsakh government behaves. Finally, let’s not forget that in the person of Ruben Vardanyan, there is an influential businessman with quite serious international connections in Artsakh who is accepted not only by the post-Soviet elites.
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