In this fiercely pro-Western nation that fought a brief war with Russia in 2008, few thought the Kremlin could ever regain a toehold. But with the West backing away from Georgia’s path to EUand NATO membership after a year of conflict in Ukraine, pro-Russian sentiments are on the rise, the Washington Post reports.
The former Soviet nation’s leaders are warning that Russia may yet prevail if Georgia is shut out from Western clubs. Wary of further provoking Russia, Western politicians have quashed talk of NATO and the European Union expanding eastward any time soon. Russia has stepped into the vacuum, increasing its presence by opening Georgian-language outlets of its state-owned news network and deepening investments in the energy industry and other key sectors.
“Stability and security cannot be maintained with this paradigm, with Russia’s paradigm of having special rights towards other countries,” said Georgian President Giorgi Margvelashvili, in an interview in the presidential palace on a bluff overlooking the old city of Tbilisi. “Russia is working pretty actively, not only in Georgia, but all around the world,” to expand its influence, he said. Despite the growing Russian presence, Georgia remains unshakably committed to eventual membership in NATO and the E.U., he said.
EUleaders squabbled at a summit last month about whether to offer even the faintest prospects for membership to Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova, which have said they want to join. The EUleaders decided against it, and they also delayed plans to ease visa rules for Georgian travelers, a bitter disappointment for Georgia’s leaders. The EUcaution stemmed from a desire not to inspire backlash from Russia, diplomats involved in the discussions say.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has taken the role of the lead European interlocutor with Putin, has played down expansion prospects. So has President Obama.
“Neither Ukraine or Georgia are currently on a path to NATO membership. And there has not been any immediate plans for expansion of NATO’s membership,” Obama said last year.
Now support for pro-Russian politicians in Moldova and Georgia is growing, while Ukraine is so consumed by conflict that it has made little progress in instituting reforms necessary for westward integration. Armenia, a fourth post-Soviet country that had been in talks with EUleaders about a trade deal, last year abandoned the discussions altogether, allying itself with the Russian camp.
Many here say that Russia has skillfully outmaneuvered the West.
“The Russians are working to dominate this part of the world. They calculate, they plan, and they know this region much better than the Europeans and Americans,” said Tedo Japaridze, the chairman of the Georgian parliament’s foreign relations committee.
The United States has tried to offer some consolation measures. U.S. troops did training exercises with Georgian soldiers in May, and Georgia’s leaders present an upbeat face about their westward efforts.
Spurned by the West, Georgians are starting to look elsewhere. Support for signing the EUtrade agreement is down to 68 percent in April polls from the National Democratic Institute, down from 80 percent immediately before the Ukraine crisis started. Support for Georgia’s joining the Russian-dominated Eurasian Economic Union, meanwhile, is up to 31 percent.
By 2012, however, many Georgians were ready to embrace the leadership of their nation’s wealthiest man, Bidzina Ivanishvili, who promised to improve relations with Russia while maintaining ties to the West. The payoff for Georgia was swift. Russia lifted a ban on imports of Georgian wine in 2013, and trade spiked.
Pro-Russian parties are expected to make gains in parliamentary elections next year. For now, even some of Georgia’s most committed pro-Western politicians say that their best hope is to hold tight to their goals but to expect little from their partners for now.