The West and Russia are competing with each other regarding the settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, the core of which, by and large, is the issue of Artsakh.
Everyone offers their own version of the regulation, adapting it to their interests as much as possible. How do the solutions offered by the West and Russia differ from each other, and what will happen to Artsakh and the people of Artsakh if they choose which option?
It became clear from the statement made in Prague that the West wants to resolve the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict as quickly as possible, which will enable Russia to be pushed out of the region. The Western regulation model is as follows. Armenia and Azerbaijan recognize each other’s territorial integrity and return to the border of the Soviet years. Azerbaijan returns to Armenia the occupied territories from Armenia in 2021-22, and Armenia returns the Azerbaijani territories under the control of Armenia in the Tavush Marz. Presumably, Tigranashen in Ararat Marz can be exchanged for Artsvashen, which will enable the Armenian government to say that the strategic road connecting Syunik remained under our control, we saved the road.
According to the model of Western settlement, Armenia renounces any ambition and obligation towards Artsakh. Azerbaijan is starting direct negotiations with the current authorities of Artsakh. In those negotiations, Azerbaijan will propose that the people of Artsakh accept Azerbaijani citizenship, in exchange for which Azerbaijan will guarantee their safety and the right to live in that territory. What Nikol and the CP members say is the issue of the security and rights of Artsakh residents, they mean it. Armenians living in Artsakh will get a certain cultural autonomy, for example, there will be Armenian language classes in schools, there will be an Armenian theater, radio, and maybe also a TV channel.
Although the people of Artsakh now say that they exclude their existence under the rule of Azerbaijan, if the authorities of Artsakh are deprived of the political and financial support of Armenia, and remain alone against Azerbaijan, a part of the Armenians of Artsakh will still have to live under the rule of Azerbaijan. Not all Artsakh residents have apartments in Yerevan, Armenia, and at least for the time being they will be forced to live in their places of residence, until they permanently migrate to Georgia or go to Azerbaijan. Even during the 1915 genocide and migration, many Armenians remained and continued to live in Turkey. Until some of them left the country in safer conditions, and the other part became Turkish-Kurdish. The scenario proposed by Pashinyan will bring the same fate to the people of Artsakh.
The West wants to implement this plan as quickly as possible, because as a result, there will be no need for Russian peacekeepers in Artsakh, and the Russian 102nd military base in Armenia. The people of Artsakh will be brothers with the Azerbaijanis, the citizens of Armenia with the Turks.
For Russia, on the contrary. the existing status quo should be preserved as long as possible, the Artsakh issue should remain unresolved, and the tension in Armenian-Azerbaijani relations should continue. Russians do not want to leave either Artsakh or Armenia, but they need a reason to stay. The project to be submitted for the referendum on the constitutional changes implemented in Artsakh under the direction of Russia envisages a provision that the residents of Artsakh can be dual citizens. Russia would have distributed Russian passports to Artsakh residents a long time ago, as it was done in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Donetsk and Luhansk, but by distributing Russian passports to Artsakh residents, Russia would enter into a direct conflict with Azerbaijan, which it cannot afford at the moment. In the case of Georgia and Ukraine, Russia allowed itself to do something similar.
Regardless of that agreement, Russia will do everything to prevent the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, including the Artsakh conflict, from being settled. The leverage of Russia’s influence on both Armenia and Azerbaijan is quite weak, it can have some influence on the government of Artsakh, but it is not enough to achieve what it wants.
The government of Armenia, which does not have its own program and concept for the settlement of the problem, shows that it is conducting a so-called complementary policy, agreeing to the programs of both the West and Russia, as if trying to combine the solutions offered by them. But it is impossible to combine the incompatible, and Armenia has already made a choice. Pashinyan chose the Western model of settlement of the issue, which they formulate in the following way: “We hand over Artsakh to save Armenia.”
CP members are already publicly announcing that we have lost Artsakh, one way or another, and there is no point in clinging to the sinking Russian ship for its fragments.
In reality, Pashinyan calculated that he chose the strong one, he calculated that Russia’s situation will deteriorate to such an extent that at some point he will be able to send Russia and its government as far as possible. At that time, Nikol Pashinyan’s dream will come true, he will become the Prime Minister of Armenia without problems. There will be no question of keeping an army, or helping Artsakh, or war with Azerbaijan, or opposing Turkey, only peace and solidarity will prevail on all four sides. They will share the money collected in the budget with the CP members, they will live carefree and happy under the watchful control of 40,000 policemen.
Avetis Babajanyan