The Russian-Ukrainian war is coming to an end, all parties involved in it are tired of the war and strive to end it as quickly as possible, of course, recording their victory and the defeat of the opposing side.
For the end of the war, a formal occasion is needed, such as the counterattack being prepared by the Ukrainian army and the defeat of the enemy. Ukraine’s Western allies, the US and the European Union, have already specified specific dates during which the counter-offensive will begin in the next few weeks, at the end of April-beginning of May. The USA does not want to wait any longer, because all the preparations have already been made: it is sending huge stocks of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, skills to carry out offensive operations have been taught, according to various estimates, to 40-50 thousand Ukrainian soldiers.
Russia is also preparing for a counter-attack, which has also concentrated its ammunition and human resources to resist it. The military-political leadership of Ukraine declares that as a result of this counter-offensive, Russia’s occupation of Ukrainian territories will be put to an end, and the country’s territorial integrity will be restored.
The main direction of the counter-attack will be Kherson and Zaporizhia regions of southern Ukraine. according to the scenario of the Ukrainian command, the army should cross the Dnieper River, reach the Sea of Azov and liberate Crimea. If the Ukrainian army really reaches Crimea, Russia’s defeat will be obvious. Even if Russia keeps Donbas under its control, it will matter very little, because in 2022. on February 24, Russian President Putin started a war with the slogan of returning Russia’s lost territories. The loss of Crimea would mean that Putin’s plan has failed, as Russia loses what it had gained by 2022. The Russian people may consider that the war, human and material losses and deprivations were not justified, and the continuation of the war is hopeless. This is if the Ukrainian army succeeds in counterattacking.
If the Ukrainian army fails, the exact opposite will happen. Ukraine will lose its offensive potential, and the continuation of the war will be fraught with new and irreversible losses. The people of Ukraine will lose faith in a possible victory. Already today in Ukraine, it has become very difficult to recruit new people into the army, motivated men and women who want to fight are already in the army, and the benefit of those who are taken to the front by violence and coercion is very little. If the counter-offensive fails, the country will also lose the support of its Western sponsors. The USA and the EU will continue to help Ukraine, but not to the extent and volume that they are helping now. The German Ministry of Defense has already announced that it can no longer provide new tanks to Ukraine, other countries have also exhausted their possibilities of assistance.
It is clear for the US and EU countries that if the counter-offensive fails, and they nevertheless encourage Ukraine to continue the war, only sending tanks, armored vehicles and shells will no longer be enough to maintain the combat capability of the Ukrainian army at the current level. The Ukrainian army is already experiencing a severe lack of human resources, and in order to continue the war, the direct involvement of the NATO member states in the war will be necessary, it will be necessary for the US and the EU member states to participate in the war operations with the direct involvement of their armies and their soldiers. While they are clearly not ready for it. Poland is perhaps the only exception, but it is unlikely that Poland will join Ukraine without NATO’s agreement and support.
The West tells Ukraine that we need a quick way out of the war. either you launch a powerful counterattack and defeat Russia, thus ending the war victoriously, or you lose and the war ends with the defeat of Ukraine. Ukraine will be forced to accept its territorial losses, and the rest of the country will turn into a buffer zone between NATO and Russia.
Even if the counteroffensive fails, which is one of the most likely scenarios at the moment, the Ukrainian authorities can still claim that it is Russia’s defeat. In the end, Russia had the task of capturing all of Ukraine, including the capital city of Kiev, which is considered the mother of Russian cities, while it was forced to retreat from the borders of Kiev, losing a significant part of the territories it had captured at the beginning of the war. As compensation, Ukraine will become a member of the EU, and the country will receive huge funds for reconstruction and development. The West will also consider it its victory, because Russia will get only 20 percent of the territory of Ukraine, and the remaining 80 percent will become part of the Western camp. Russia will also announce its victory, saying that it managed to save millions of Russians from the yoke of Ukrainian Nazism.
After the conclusion of peace or perhaps a ceasefire, which is more likely, the West will finally lower the iron curtain that will pass through the new borders of Ukraine. The West is now fighting for the countries of the South Caucasus, including Armenia, to remain under its influence and not fall to Russia. But Russia is not inclined to give in. Russians understand that if the territory of Ukraine was big enough to share, there is almost nothing to share here. If an agreement is reached on the issue of Ukraine, the fate of the South Caucasus will also be decided, and most likely, the West will cede this territory to Russia.
The passivity and waiting of the political forces in Armenia is primarily due to the actions taking place on the Ukrainian front. Many people understand that the issue of power in Armenia and Armenia will also be determined by the results of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, and by the global agreements to be made between the West and Russia after that. By and large, nothing depends on them now.
Avetis Babajanyan