Violating the ceasefire is not in the Armenian side’s interests, Armenia’s former minister of defense Vagharshak Harutyunyan told Tert.am.
Mr Harutyunyan, what is the reason for resumed border tensions?
It is Azerbaijan’s strategy. Azerbaijan is well aware of its inability to settle the conflict by means of full-scale war. On the other hand, they do not want a negotiated settlement. The result is a frozen process.
The OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs are not making any proposals because Azerbaijan has rejected all the proposals.
Azerbaijan has no alternative and is well aware all the ways are closed. So they are trying to influence Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh by escalating tension and an atmosphere of fear, thereby forcing emigration and forcing the Armenian side into concession at the negotiations, blackmailing the co-chairs and the oil-exporting states, which are interested in regional stability. The steps are aimed at information war to force the Armenian side into concessions.
The border tensions followed Russian FM Sergey Lavrov’s visit to Baku. Could Lavrov have given any promises to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev for Russia to retain influence over Azerbaijan?
Lavrov’s visit was preceded by the ones of Russia President Vladimir Putin and other presidents. Border tensions have continued for 21 years, and it is absurd to link them with the visits. It is signed documents that show the level of interstate relations. If we compare Armenian-Russian relations with Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, we can see we have the deepest ties with Russia – in the military, economic and security fields. On the other hand, Azerbaijan has only economic ties involving the Caspian. Azerbaijani-Russian relations are nothing but partnership. We should not forget that Russia and Armenia signed a protocol in 2010, which envisages Russia’s interference in case Azerbaijan attacks Armenia. It means Russia views Azerbaijan as an enemy.
Mr Harutyunyan, does the use of new quality of weapons by Azerbaijan signal a threat of renewed war?
The fact that Azerbaijan uses high-caliber weapons is really a reason for concern, but that does not imply an increasing likelihood of war. The likelihood will increase in a political-military situation in which Azerbaijan will be sure of success. But we do not have that situation now.
What about the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict? Is its settlement no longer in a deadlock?
The situation we are facing today signals no solution to the conflict. If we consider the problem in global terms, we will see that no territorial dispute or conflict has ever been settled at once. Israel hasn’t been able to settle the problem for about 60 years and it’s almost 80 years Greece hasn’t done so. So, problems of the kind are not easy to solve.
But the OSCE Minsk Group repeatedly urges the partoes to restrain the tension and avoid violating the ceasefire. And no specifically addressed statements are ever made.
It’s not in the interests of the Armenian side to violate the ceasefire regime. We do not have such purposes, either political or military. We do not seek to move ahead to seize Baku, whereas Azerbaijan has set such a task and announced officially that it is going to seize Karabakh.So from the political-military point of view, Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic are not interested in violating the ceasefire?
Then why does the OSCE Minsk Group fail to make its calls specific?
These should be treated as diplomatic statements. Personally I consider them wrong, because if the objective is to avert border tension, the appeals and calls have to be specific and addressed to the side which is really to blame. But the co-chairs simply put an equal sign as a diplomatic gesture.
Is there any need for Armenia to apply to the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) or the UN Security Council?
The organizations which are concerned with this are the United Nations and its Security Council, the OSCE, its Minsk Group and personal representative, the Commonwealth of Independent States and NATO, the PACE and the EU Eastern Partnership countries. There are also other interested states and institutions. So the Republic of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh have to let those institutions know of border transgressions whenever they happen and call for active mechanisms towards resolving and preventing such violations.