During the tenure of Nikol Pashinyan, economic development in Armenia is not possible.
This is an axiom. no rational person will make a long-term investment in a country whose power is in the hands of unprincipled, inconsistent people in everything, in a country that is defenseless against the attacks of hostile countries, in a country whose society has no confidence in its future or even tomorrow, and whose there could be an explosion in the center and kill dozens of people in a few minutes.
No matter how cynical it sounds, Pashinyan does not need the development of Armenia either. A developed economy means a developed and well-off society, which cannot tolerate Pashinyan’s semi-literate and incompetent government. Pashinyan needs a hungry, ignorant and apathetic population that can feed on lies and maintain a half-starved existence, satisfying itself with the humanitarian aid thrown at it by the government. At one time, Pashinyan said that Sargsyan’s government keeps the society in poverty, so that in every election, it has the opportunity to reproduce with 10,000 dram election bribes. After coming to power, Pashinyan decided that this theory is the only guarantee of the strength and existence of his power, and he decided to thoroughly implement this theory in his life. Despite the devaluation of the dram and the unspeakable increase in prices,
It is even more cynicism when, under such conditions, Pashinyan organizes some events dedicated to the development of the economy, like the recent two-day discussion held at the study center of the Central Bank in Dilijan, which was dedicated to the development of policies implemented in various sectors of the economy. The Economic Policy Council attached to the Prime Minister is holding a session, but there is no word in the official reports whether the issue of dram appreciation, which is the most relevant for the economy at the moment, was discussed during that session. Businessmen of Armenia, hundreds of organizations uniting them, have been warning for a long time that the appreciating dram is destroying their business, their products are becoming uncompetitive, they are losing markets acquired over time and with great efforts, they are suffering huge financial losses. workplaces are being closed, but the Armenian government keeps stone silent regarding these alarms. The most obvious manifestation of indifference is the dram exchange rate.
The authorities of Armenia say that we have nothing to talk with you. It’s okay that your business is dying, but Armenia’s economy is developing. If you don’t believe it, look at the official statistics and you will see that we even have double-digit economic growth. It’s okay that manufacturers, builders, high-tech enterprises are collapsing, instead trade and the service sector are growing. And the banks are even thriving, making huge profits from absurd commissions.
There is a term in economics – “Dutch disease”, which is a very clear diagnosis of the current state of Armenia’s economy. In 1959, a huge gas deposit was discovered in a place called Groningen in the Netherlands, from which the extracted gas contributed to the sharp growth of the extractive industry, which led to the growth of exports, the appreciation of the guilder, the growth of the trade and service sector, but, on the contrary, the country’s industry began to decline. The gulden had become so valuable that importing goods from abroad became far more profitable than producing them in Holland. Holland, of course, was cured of the disease because the country had a competent and long-term government, but the diagnosis and symptoms of the disease remained in history.
No gas field was found in Armenia, but as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian war, a large amount of foreign currency appeared in Armenia. Russian tourists, temporary residents of Armenia and businessmen bring with them a huge amount of foreign currency, which has led to dram appreciation. The country’s GDP is growing, but it is a toxic growth because the economy is not growing proportionately. Trade, service sector and banks are growing, but as a result of dram appreciation, other branches suffer losses and are suffocated as a result of this growth. They are demanding rescue measures, which are different, but there is nothing to do with their demand. Tomorrow, when the Russian-Ukrainian war will end and the Russians will return to their country, they will have the opportunity to do business in their country. That short-term effect of Armenia’s economic growth will disappear. And the closed and destroyed enterprises will no longer be possible to restore.
Do Pashinyan and his government representatives not understand this? No matter how semi-literate and incompetent the government is, they understand the seriousness of the disaster brought to Armenia as a result of their activities. But they are sure that this disaster will help to strengthen their power, that’s why they decided not to fight against it in any way.
Industrialists, builders, people involved in the field of high technologies are the most literate and developed part of the society. They are quite independent, because they are self-sufficient, they do not depend on the whims of the government and can create problems for the government. Meanwhile, traders and representatives of the service sector do not pose any threat to the government. They are not capable of consolidating and presenting some common demands.
It is beneficial for Pashinyan to be the head of the power of the tyrants and absolutists, he cannot aspire to more than that. A part of the society will bring and sell maika-tursik, nask from Turkey, and the other part will make beds for Russians and other tourists, drive a taxi, set the table, do hairdressing. What else does Pashinyan need? life is happy, livelihood is free. Of course, such a society is destructive for the country, but it is salvation for Pashinyan and his government.
Avetis Babajanyan
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