Russia says it is building a bipolar or multipolar world, where there will be other power centers besides the US or the collective West led by the US: Russia, China, or both. In order to become a pole of power, Russia needs not only to get out of the influence of the West but also to bring back the territories previously under its control, that have come under the influence of the West.
The war against Ukraine is one of the manifestations of that struggle. Without the return of these territories or at least most of them, Russia cannot gain a geopolitical pole or a superpower status, because a superpower first of all means having spheres of influence. You probably remember the titles king and king from the king. the king of the king was the one whose sovereignty was recognized by other kings. Now the terminology has changed a bit, but the content remains the same.
Armenia is such a sphere of influence for Russia, Artsakh is also such a sphere of influence. Russia entered Artsakh to expand its influence in the South Caucasus. Nikol Pashinyan’s government wants to get Russia out of Armenia, and Pashinyan made this clear during a January 10 press conference, saying that Russia’s military presence poses a threat to Armenia’s security. Until then, it was accepted that the Russian military base and the strategic alliance with Russia are the most important components of Armenia’s security. Pashinyan, as the government of Armenia, for the first time considered Russia and the Russian military presence in our country as a threat to Armenia’s security. Nikol no longer wants to recognize Russia’s sovereignty and wants to remove the Russian army from the territory of Armenia.
After abandoning military exercises with the CSTO and presenting a military threat to Russia, it seems that the next logical step should have been to neutralize that military threat. At the same time, neutralize radically. If Armenia leaves the CSTO, it will no longer receive an offer to hold CSTO military exercises on the territory of Armenia. If Armenia breaks the agreements with Russia based on which Russia keeps its military base here, it will also neutralize that threat. Why, then, does Pashinyan not take such a step, why does he not withdraw Armenia from the CSTO, does he not break the agreements with Russia, which has become a threat to us, based on which Russia keeps troops here?
Pashinyan would do it, he is just afraid, he was scared. After threatening Russia, the Russians directly threatened it, and if that threat escaped the attention of most of the Armenian society, it definitely did not escape the attention of Pashinyan. A few days after Pashinyan’s press conference, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova literally called him an “adventurer” and urged him to think about the consequences. Declaring that the centuries-old friendship unites the Armenian and Russian peoples, and their roots go deep into history, Zakharova announced that Russia intends to continue multilaterally strengthening bilateral relations, as well as cooperation within the framework of multilateral integration associations: CSTO, EAEU, CIS.
Zakharova said simply: “Do not hope that we will allow you to leave the CSTO or EAEU.” “The statements from Yerevan, as if the Russian presence poses a threat to Armenia’s security, are nonsense. For decades, our soldiers and border guards have made a significant contribution to ensuring the security of Armenia by protecting its borders, which is an objective reality that cannot be denied. Moreover, the current leadership of Armenia publicly declared that Russia’s military presence corresponds to Armenia’s national interests. And here are the adventurers who are calling to show our military the door, obviously they don’t consider the real consequences of such steps.”
We have been waiting for almost 10 days that the RA government will respond to Zakharova’s obviously offensive and threatening statement at least at the level of the Foreign Ministry spokesperson. There was no answer, unless we count the fact that after Zakharova’s statement, Pashinyan did not make a new anti-Russian statement, perhaps understanding what consequences Russia was referring to. Especially since the consequences are not related to Armenia, but to the adventurer or adventurers.
Perhaps Pashinyan has understood that if he continues his anti-Russian rhetoric, he will endlessly aggravate both himself and his government. Because it is one thing when a representative of a party speaks against the Russian military presence, another thing when the actual leader of the country does it. We already wrote once that if Pashinyan decides to withdraw from the CSTO and the strategic alliance with Russia, that decision will remain in the air. Russia will not withdraw its troops from Armenia. There will be dozens of justifications. But if making decisions not to put salt pans on restaurant tables or subjecting gas cylinders to compulsory examination discredits the government only within the country, then the failure to implement the decision to remove the Russian military base will show that Pashinyan has no power in Armenia at all.
There can be no doubt that the Russians will not leave. In Ukraine, they are killing tens of thousands of soldiers to bring that country back under their control. Why should they take it and leave Armenia peacefully? It is true that the international community will make statements and appeals to Russia to respect Armenia’s sovereignty, but neither Armenia nor Pashinyan’s government will benefit from this. Russia will definitely not respect Armenia’s sovereignty, just as it does not respect Georgia’s, Ukraine’s, Moldova’s, but Pashinyan may lose his power.
If until now Pashinyan was considered a capitulator and a traitor to national interests within the country, then at least for Russia he is now an adventurer who is threatened with very serious consequences. Only he won’t dare to tell the Russian authorities that you are the adventurer and the ones talking nonsense. The patrols will hardly protect Pashinyan from Russia.
Avetis Babajanyan
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