“I think the US has somewhat misplaced its understanding on what moves Turkey to cooperate with the Kurdish government in northern Iraq. Turkey’s approach is perfectly reasonable over the issue,” said Holmes in an exclusive interview with Today’s Zaman.
The former US ambassador spoke to Today’s Zaman about several issues ranging from Turkish-US relations, the Syrian crisis and Turkish-Armenian relations to Turkey’s partnership with the KRG.
Turkey’s economic ties with the autonomous Kurdish region in northern Iraq have raised eyebrows in Baghdad and Washington in recent years. Growing ties in the area of energy between Turkey and the Kurdish region have attracted the criticism of the US, which is concerned that bypassing the Iraqi central government could serve to increase the already high tensions between the KRG and the central government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in Baghdad. These tensions would then pose a significant risk to the country’s stability, in Washington’s view.
“The issue has now focused on hydrocarbons, and I frankly don’t blame Turkey at all for looking out for its own interests with respect to access to hydrocarbons,” remarked Holmes, adding that Turkey believes that doing business with northern Iraq would be much more stable than doing business with Baghdad.
As a growing country, Turkey desperately needs energy, and the KRG appears to be one of the best options for Turkey’s energy needs. The US has been trying to convince Maliki to pass a hydrocarbon law which would provide more advantageous conditions for energy companies in Iraq.
Holmes added that American hydrocarbon companies are interested in the territorial integrity of Iraq. “I am sure that Turkey is interested in hydrocarbons coming from Basra as much as from Arbil, but that’s not the reality now,” Holmes claimed, describing Turkey-KRG energy ties as an issue that Turkey and the US do not agree on but set aside in the interest of the relationship.
Difference between Turkey and US on Maliki
There is a difference in the stances held by the US and Turkey toward Maliki, who is currently at odds with the Turkish government. Washington believes that Maliki offers the best chance for stability in Iraq at the moment, while Turkey has criticized the Iraqi Shiite-led government’s monopoly of power at the expense of other groups in the country.
“I believe that the US has less influence on the Maliki government than it pretends to have. The US has lost a lot of influence in Iraq. However, the relationship between Turkey and Iraq is enormously important for the US. If we look five years back, no one would have bet that Turkey would have had this kind of relationship with the KRG or Baghdad,” said Holmes.
Due to energy and several other thorny issues, ties between the Ankara and Baghdad have deteriorated to an all-time low.
From time to time, US officials have reiterated their displeasure with Turkey’s efforts to knit closer ties with the KRG. “We don’t support oil exports from any part of Iraq without the appropriate approval of the Iraqi government,” stated Victoria Nuland, State Department spokesperson, a while ago.
However, Turkish officials clearly confirm that the country will go ahead and forge deeper energy ties with the Kurdish authority in an effort to more meet Turkey’s ever-increasing energy needs.
Turkey-US relations outstanding despite differences in policies
Turkish-US ties have experienced perhaps one of their brightest periods since Barack Obama was first elected president in 2008, with the two NATO allies finding common ground on most foreign policy challenges rising from the troubled Middle East. However, ties between Turkey and the US have been tested amidst deepening crises in the Middle East, particularly in Iraq and Syria. Holmes believes that Turkey and the US enjoy outstanding relations despite policy differences.
“What Obama and [Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip] Erdoğan is trying to do is to develop a very close personal relationship, like [Former Secretary of State Hillary] Clinton and [Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet] Davutoğlu have done — in a way that they can identify issues they disagree on and say, ‘OK, let’s put these issues aside and speak about topics we share complete agreement on.’ I am very happy that both countries can openly discuss the topics they cannot agree on,” said the former US ambassador.
Holmes said his prediction is that an Obama-Erdoğan meeting will take place within a few months. “My understanding is that we will probably hear simultaneous announcements from Washington and Ankara of an agreement on a visit by Erdoğan in the first four months of this year,” Homes predicted.
The head of the ATC added that both countries make efforts to prevent topics of disagreement from affecting relations. “Not all administrations were able to do this. [Former US President] George Bush was clearly saying ‘You are either my friend or my enemy.’ But Obama’s approach is ‘You don’t need to be my enemy or doctrinaire. We can work together despite our differences.’ This approach facilitated a closer relationship,” iterated Holmes.
Asked whether the Syrian crisis of two years had become an apparent topic of disagreement between Ankara and Washington, Holmes replied that the Turkish government, which very much wanted the US to take a leadership role in the conflict, has been disappointed by the US’s stance, although Turkish officials don’t say this publicly.
“Turkey was disappointed to see that Obama did not express the will to do that. The US didn’t want to get further involved in the crisis. But Turks do understand this position and, indeed, there are elements of political leadership in Turkey which themselves are quite nervous about getting more deeply involved in the military aspects in Syria,” said Holmes.
Although Turkey and the US have shared the same discourse on the resolution of the Syrian crisis, with both calling for the establishment of a transitional government, Syria has become a potential challenge and issue of dispute between the two NATO allies.
At the start of the Syrian crisis, the US encouraged Turkey to take a harsh stance against the Syrian regime. However, Turkey no longer feels the open backing of the US it has in the past and has found itself increasingly isolated.
“I place the Syrian crisis as an issue on which the two countries disagree. The Syrian issue is not serious in terms of deteriorating relations such as Iraq. Iraq is a much more serious disagreement. But in both cases, the two countries have managed to overcome issues and keep talking in a way that preserves their relationship,” said Holmes.
While Washington sees Turkey as a pivotal player in backing Syria’s opposition, Turkey, which is anxious to avoid going into Syria on its own, views the US as vital to any operation in Syria. However, the US fears that a military intervention in Syria could ignite a wider conflict.
Involvement of Turkish community in US politics increasing
Holmes also touched upon the status of the Turkish community in US, saying the Turkish lobby is becoming more active when compared to the past in terms of effective participation in American politics as a reaction to the Armenian lobby in the US. The Armenian lobby has made great efforts demanding the recognition of the so-called Armenian genocide by the US Congress and is making preparations for 2015, the centennial of the events Armenians refer to as genocide in 1915.
“There is recognition that they [the Turkish community] can’t sit and do nothing if they really care about strengthening the Turkey-US relationship. So, there is a much more willingness to become involved in the politics of America. Yet, it is still not enough,” remarked Holmes.
Holmes noted that the Turkish lobby in the US has historically been passive in political participation and said Turks in the US should participate more fully in US politics to make their voices more widely heard.
“It is not a large group, but still a decent-sized community. The Turkish community, or Turkish diaspora, has not played a significant role in American politics until very recently. They came to the US as professionals, engineers, doctors, etc. But they didn’t get involved in the city councils or local municipalities much. There has never been a representative of Turkish descent in Congress. There are very few states where there is a representative of Turkish descent. And that is a reflection of the fact that Turks never regarded politics as something they wanted to be involved in,” the former ambassador explained.
Holmes said the Turkish lobby is now going to great lengths to form relationships with members of Congress to win support for the Armenian issue. “But this is only in the last three or four years. However, it is leading to positive consequences in terms of the awareness of American officials not only on the Armenian issue but also other issues concerning Turks,” said Holmes.
When asked whether their passivity was due to their Muslim identity, Holmes replied in the negative. “Americans don’t pay much attention to whether you are a Muslim or a Hindu. It would be a big mistake for people to believe that there is any sort of a discrimination against Muslims, much less Turks,” said Holmes.
Genocide issue has potential to strain Turkey-US relations
Holmes stated that the so-called Armenian genocide issue has the potential to be a very destructive issue between the US and Turkey, adding, however, that it depends on how Washington handles the issue.
“We need to be very alert, nimble and ready for the critical consequences if Turkey and Armenia are not able to make progress that softens this issue prior to 2015,” said Holmes.
“Turkey can take steps which may soften the issue significantly but I personally believe that there is pretty broad and accurate awareness in the [Obama] administration. Congress is much closer to pressure from their local constituencies, and this is where the risk is. The risk is that Congress may somehow take a step which might only answer to pressure coming from local constituencies,” Holmes warned.
As the head of the ATC, a leading business association in the US that works to enhance US-Turkish ties, Holmes stated that his organization was constantly following the Armenian issue. “We understand and we are perfectly prepared to go to Congress and say: ‘Wait a minute. Let me make sure that you have got an accurate understanding of this issue. Let me make sure that if you proceed on this line which is unfair for Turkey, it will lead to serious consequences in business and commercial relations with Turkey’,” said Holmes.
When asked what are likely to be the key issues discussed in ATC’s annual conference this year, which is to be held in Washington in June, Holmes replied that the whole spectrum of US-Turkish relations including business, national security and political and cultural relations will be discussed. “Apart from US-Turkey relations, the problems surrounding Turkey will also be discussed. These problems include Turkey’s relations with Iran, Iraq, Syria, Cyprus, Israel and Armenia. We are a business organization, but we have been involved in Turkey for a very long time. With these conferences we bring together political, business and military leadership,” commented Holmes.
Participation in the ATC’s annual conference is diverse, from members of Congress, senior US administration officials and the US military to high-ranking government and military officials from the Turkish side.
Holmes, who has headed the ATC for eight years, stated that Turkey and the US attach importance to these conferences as they are the one occasion on which the full range of issues concerning the two countries are discussed by senior representatives of the country’s various institutions.