Thomas de Waal
The plausible likelihood that Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) will remain under Armenian contol in case of any outcome in the current conflict settlement process is, by and large, understandable all actors, according to Thomas de Waal, a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe.
In an interview with RFE/RL (Echo Kavkaza), the expert described the fact as the most painful and acute issue in the entire conflict settlement process.
“I think everybody understands, more or less, that Nagorno-Karabakh will remain under the Armenians’ control in case of any settlement scenario. But here we also deal with the problem of the [surrounding seven] regions which are also under Armenian troops’ control. Baku will never certainly reconcile with the loss of those territories which used to be home to half a million Azerbaijanis (who are still refugees).
And on the other hand, Armenia will never hand them over unless there are strong security guarantees. I think this problem was much easier to solve some 20 years ago,” he noted.The analyst further warned of a high risk of renewed military operations, admitting at the same time that neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan want any war now.
“No one is likely to take such chances to instigate a confrontation potentially leading to many deaths and ravages. Yet on the other hand, there is a high proneness to conflict [in light of] mutual threats, verbal statements and accumulation of heavy armament (artillery, aviation) along the Line of Contact,” he added.
Thomas de Waal described long lasting conflicts as “stable components of instability” for the entire world. In his words, the existing high challenges are better visible to those who closely follow the developments in the region. Meantime he admitted that the world superpowers (US, EU etc.) are now more focused on other hotspots (Syria, Iran, North Korea and Ukraine) as “more urgent priorities.”
“I think that the danger surely exists as this conflict is not frozen at all, and the threat of renewed military operations is really very serious. What we need now is, I think, to give more attention to it, investing every possible effort [to prevent an escalation] instead of waiting until the conflict unexpectedly resumes any time in the future,” de Waal added.
In an article published earlier on the foundation’s website, the expert said he expects the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to remain a “Project Minimum” for Russia US and France unless the “key actors, local and international, decide to rethink their strategic priorities”.