The current state of world affairs increases the chances of the Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) to achieve an international recognition, according to Ruben Safrastyan, the director of the National Academy’s Institute of Oriental Studies.
At a news conference on Monday, the expert cited the upcoming independence referendums in Catalonia and Iraqi Kurdistan (slated for October 1 and September 25, respectively) as possible good precedents paving way for such a scenario.
Meantime he admitted that the US, China and Russia remain the main vectors in global politics.
“Unlike the ‘cold war’ period which saw two power centers totally dominate the world, that [scenario] isn’t possible now, with small and medium states gaining looser chances to act,” he said.
Asked to comment on possible impacts on Armenia’s national security (against the backdrop of the changes in the Middle East), the analyst noted the states in the region gain both hazards and advantages.
Safrastyan highlighted particularly an intensifying confrontation between Turkey and Iran which he said seek for a dominant role in the region. “Both countries have high ambitions as it is. Hence the edges of cooperation – if any at all – are tactical in essence,” he said.
As for the opportunities for Armenia, Safrastyan said he pins hope on the re-arrangements expected in the near future. “The creation of a Kurdish state implies changing borders, so this state of affairs should regionally rely upon the Treaty of Sevres, the only international document adopted in the early 20th century to lay the foundations for new re-arrangements. They should, willy-nilly, return to that agreement, so we have to be prepared for that,” he added.