Editorial November 11-22
Edmond E. Azadian
Armenia should it retaliate against Azerbaijan or not? It is a Shakespearean dilemma at the border between Karabakh and Azerbaijan. Even if the answer to the question is a foregone conclusion, we know from the Armenian side of the border that sooner or later the Armenian forces will react to the provocation of Azerbaijan, who shot last week an Armenian military helicopter M1- 24 operating near the line to stop the fire, accompanied by another helicopter.
At the time of writing, recovery attempts have failed. The helicopter was shot inside the no man’s land and the bodies of three soldiers remained on board are inaccessible, the area remaining under intense fire from both sides. The Armenian side takes to prevent crime Azerbaijani forces, Armenians fear that the enemy lays a missile in the crash zone to try to prove that Armenian forces hostile intentions. Azerbaijanis take to keep the Armenian forces in distance and probably maintain tension and repel a possible solution to the conflict.
With little regard to the statement by President Aliyev Hilham consider airspace Karabakh as fly zone, President Serzh Sargsyan arrived in Stepanakert airport to board a military helicopter, accompanied by the Minister of Defense Seyran Ohanian. They were both dressed in military fatigues, given the war situation, and the president made a strong speech, evoking an appropriate response to the severity of the assault, a severe speech enough to deter further aggression of Azerbaijan .
International observers have studied the logic of the Karabakh conflict are of the opinion that the Armenian side will not be silent much longer.
Despite the rise of the rhetoric of war and violations of the ceasefire regime resulting fire, all parties seem convinced that the option of an open war is not yet payable of the day. President Sargsyan, who threatened reprisals in his strong speech, said that the threat of open war was not imminent.
The international response to the shot that killed the helicopter was predictable. Jan Psaki, the US State Department, members of the Minsk Group of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe and the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs have put together also warned against any further provocation, knowing full well that party was responsible for this new incident.
The fact that the Minister of Defense of Azerbaijan has praised who fired the missile proves that he is not an accident or the result of a miscalculation; it was a decision taken at the highest level of the Department of Defense.
Last June, the cease fire was raped many times and Armenian forces responded to provocations on three fronts, causing many Azeri losses. In August, Russian President Vladimir Putin invited the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, advocating moderation. Other meetings at the highest level followed. The US Secretary of State John Kerry and French President François Hollande called the presidents of both countries to meet and at the border, a drop in blood ensued.
Moreover, whenever a meeting was held with the participation of two presidents and hopes were high for a peaceful solution to the conflict, Azerbaijan immediately violated the ceasefire regime ruining the chances for peace. This time, it took some time before this scenario does not happen again, but there was a more aggressive way than before.
The opposition daily Haykakan Jamanak believes that Aliyev is not 100 percent sure of the conclusion of the war and that any miscalculation would not be the end of the Aliyev dynasty with the loss of enormous wealth stolen from the coffers of the state and the life of exiles that follows.
Many in Armenia wondered why Moscow weapon Azerbaijan as massively as the only enemy of the latter is Armenia, strategic ally of Russia.
Answers and speculation are numerous and varied; answer is that Russia definitely wants Baku joins the Eurasian Union to complete its hegemony over the Caucasus. Others believe it is in the interest of Russia to maintain a certain fever in the region, without open war, to pose as the savior for both parties.
Another frequently asked question is: why Aliyev he chose to shoot the helicopter and why at this time?
Again, the answers are many and varied. During a recent military ceremony, echoing the voice of his master, the Minister of Defense of Azerbaijan Zakir Hasanov criticized the “inaction” of the Minsk Group. He expressed exasperation and announced that the only alternative is the military option, with respect to “restore the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan.”
This rhetoric seems to be climbing a response to dissatisfaction with a restive population vis-à-vis the repressive regime of Aliyev, exposed to severe criticism issued by Western governments, mainly. Therefore, to divert the discontent, it takes Aliyev a scapegoat, that is to say, the Karabakh conflict. While he collects his profit the wealth of the nation, he wants to give him a patriotic picture, and sometimes, in spite of common sense, his vanity led him to take adventurous postures.
Knowing full well the influence of Moscow on Armenia, Aliyev expressed his impatience to force the hand of Moscow to act and force Armenia to withdraw its forces from Karabakh.
While theories abound and speculation, a source in Armenia think that the recent provocation comes from the West, forcing Azerbaijan to undertake another bloody conflict while Moscow is busy on its border with Ukraine.
This possibility remains remote, even if Russia had not committed anywhere in the world. The answer is given in an interview by a prominent Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhaur. Whether the defense pact covers Armenian-Russian Karabakh has always been a much debated question. The analyst said he believed Russia could intervene if Armenia was attacked by Turkey, a distant prospect at the moment. “But if the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, Russian pact with Armenia would not play. The most that can be Russia, is to require both parties to cease hostilities. “ This is the protection of our strategic ally, Russia.
As if the troubles in Georgia were not enough, snaps of the Armenian border with Azerbaijan is intensifying with incalculable consequences.
Concerning the response of Armenia, it is believed that in all environments is rejected. This solves the Shakespearean dilemma, but tell us when this response will be or what form it will take place.
Gilbert Béguian translation Armenews
Jean Eckian © armenews.com