The attacks on Armenia represent a dangerous escalation, writes Seth Frantzman in an article for the Jerusalem Post.
“Armenia has recently leaned toward Russia in world affairs, while Azerbaijan has been friendly to Israel. Azerbaijan and Turkey are key allies. This means that the conflict in the Caucasus is not a small conflict, but is related to Turkey’s role in Syria and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Those who suffer from shelling are victims of these regional issues, victims of the broader context and power politics between the United States, Russia, Turkey and other states on which the fighting will stop.
The attack on Armenia came on the eve of this week’s meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Uzbekistan. Armenia and Azerbaijan are partners in the SCO dialogue, which is dominated by Russia, China and the Central Asian states. This year, however, Iran and Turkey are also participating.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has been pushing for an end to the recent fighting, appealing to France, Russia and the United States. He spoke with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken.”
According to the U.S. State Department’s statemen the United States is deeply troubled by reports of attacks along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, including reports of strikes on population centers and civilian infrastructure inside Armenia. “As we have long made clear, there can be no military solution to the conflict. We call for an immediate cessation of all military action.”
However, Azerbaijan seems encouraged by Turkey’s support. Turkey is a member of NATO, but is also friendly to Iran and Russia.
Turkey has supported Azerbaijan and probably pushed it to attack. State media in Ankara spread statements about the conflict, claiming that it happened because of Armenian provocations. It is unclear what Ankara hopes to achieve here.
On the one hand, Ankara could use this as a kind of trump card at this week’s Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting. Reports that Azerbaijan wants to create a buffer or security zone inside Armenia appear to be related to Ankara’s demands to invade parts of Syria and create a similar security zone. Turkey has ethnically cleansed Afrin and Serekaniye after operations in 2018 and 2019 to create parts of this zone.
Another aspect of Ankara’s desire for conflict in the Caucasus could be to bring the U.S. into the region. The U.S. supports Ukraine against a Russian invasion. Turkey and Ankara’s supporters tend to portray Armenia as closer to Russia and Iran.
Thus, the context is to create a crisis in which Armenia can be presented as part of an alliance system with Russia. This could give Ankara an excuse to portray itself as a NATO member supporting its allies in Baku. A compromise here arises when Ukraine launches a successful counteroffensive and Moscow acquires Iranian drones. A weakened Moscow cannot support Armenia and will be asked to force Armenia to make concessions in exchange for new deals between Moscow and Istanbul.
Moscow has generally behaved this way in the past: wanting to weaken Armenia and isolate Yerevan in order to get other things from Ankara. Armenia wants support from Washington and Paris for a cease-fire, but it is hurt by the fact that NATO member Turkey is set against Armenia. Isolated and dependent on Moscow, Armenia is in a difficult position, perhaps paying the price for the world’s attention focused on Ukraine, as its adversaries use the conflict to seize more land from Armenia.
There will be more wars and conflicts like this one in a world where countries believe the world order led by the U.S. is collapsing, as countries try to redraw borders set 50 or 100 years ago. Ankara’s war in Syria is one example. Ankara is stirring up conflict with Armenia. Russia’s war with Ukraine is another example.
There is an angle here that also has to do with Israel. Israel has close and positive relations with Azerbaijan; Azerbaijan has purchased drones from Israel. Nevertheless, Armenian-Israeli relations are on a roller coaster ride, tainted by fighting in 2020. This is a tragic aspect of history, because while both Armenians and Jews are victims of genocide, modern politics means that relations between the two nation-states are not strong. At this point.”
Corrected version …
This article is full of false premises. The article portrays an alliance of Armenia with Russia, and Turkey with that of the US. On paper yes this is correct but in reality this cannot be further from today’s political alignment in the Caucasus. Turkey has no desire in bringing the US into the Caucasus. Turkey has been cooperating with Russia in tandem to increase it’s own influence in the region and the US actually is regarded as an obstacle to a Turkish-Azerbaijan-Russia alliance which is founded on a long-held Pan-Turkist ideology of erasing Armenia from the map. Russia, on the other hand, has always used the Turkish threat on Armenia as leverage to reap benefits from Turkey at the expense of Armenia (both in weakening Armenia’s sovereignty and its territorial integrity) in order to come in and act as a “saviour” of Armenia. Armenia’s so-called alliance with Russia has proven to be equally an existential threat to Armenia’s survival. Even the most superficial study/analyses of a potential elimination of the Armenian factor from the Caucasus will show a clear threat to US national interests, and even threaten US national security.
This article is full of false premises. The article portrays an alliance of Armenia with Russia, and Turkey with that of the US. On paper yes this is correct but in reality this cannot be further from today’s political alignment in the Caucasus. Turkey has no desire in bringing the US into the Caucasus. Turkey has been cooperating with Russia in tandem to increase it’s own influence in the region and the US actually is regarded as an obstacle to a Turkish-Azerbaijan-Russia alliance which is founded on a long-held Pan-Turkist ideology of erasing Armenia from the map. Russia, on the other hand, has always used the Turkish threat on Armenia as leverage to reap benefits from Turkey at the expense of Armenia (both in weakening Armenia’s sovereignty and its territorial integrity) in order to come in and act as a “saviour” of Armenia. Armenia’s so-called alliance with Russia has proven to be equally an existential to Armenia’s survival. Even the most superficial study/analyses of a potential elimination of the Armenian factor from the Caucasus will show a clear threat to US national interests, and even threaten US national security.