While Iraqi Kurds are expected to overwhelmingly vote their preference for an independent state on Sept. 25, it is less clear how Iraqi Kurdistan President Massoud Barzani will manage opposition from just about everyone else.The referendum does not compel Barzani to declare an independent Iraqi Kurdish state. Barzani may consider a yes vote as leverage to negotiate with Baghdad and neighboring powers from a greater position of strength.
This column wrote last month that there is “shared interest among Syria, Turkey and Iran in preventing Kurdish autonomy” in both Syria and Iraq. The Iraqi Kurdish referendum complicates Erbil’s close ties with Ankara. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has opposed the referendum from the start, fearing the impact on the Kurds in both Turkey and Syria. Turkey’s top priority in Syria is to break the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). The YPG is Washington’s Syrian partner of choice and also aligned with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The United States and Turkey consider the PKK a terrorist organization. While the KRG does not support the YPG, and is a rival of the PKK, both the YPG and the PKK are popular with many Iraqi Kurds.
Cengiz Candar reports that among “the inner circle of the KRG decision-making process, negative comments by the Turkish side are for the benefit of Turkey’s domestic political scene. What they have heard from their Turkish colleagues privately on the referendum issue is quite different. … Therefore, for the Kurds, there is supposedly no need to be concerned about Turkey’s reactions.”
The question is whether the KRG inner circle indeed has the inside track or instead is hearing what it wants to hear. Candar writes, “Erdogan’s statement and the words he chose have to be treated with the utmost importance, as his position overrides every institution and personality in today’s Turkey. His remarks during a July 5 interview with TV channel France 24 do not support KRG officials’ optimism on Turkey’s ultimate position.
Candar continues, “Anybody familiar with Erdogan’s speaking style should know that these phrases are quite tough — beyond a friendly warning. Tellingly, Erdogan was also belittling the KRG by saying ‘local administration’ rather than using Iraqi Kurdistan’s official name. Erdogan has consistently made it known that he doesn’t support even the autonomous Kurdish entity in northern Iraq, fearing the same thing will happen in Syria. … Turkey’s military establishment, one of Erdogan’s recent staunch domestic allies, is also known for its opposition to the autonomous Kurdish entity.”
Nahwi Saeed writes that Iran unambiguously opposes to the referendum. “In a move that coincided with preparing for the referendum,” Saeed writes, “Iran cut water flow from the Little Zab River to Kurdistan. Iranian officials have recently told a high-ranking Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) delegation, ‘If you hold a referendum, do not expect anything good from us.’ More recently, the Iranian defense minister has threatened that the separatist movements in Iraq will not be tolerated. In short, Iran is unequivocally against the Kurdish referendum and will try to prevent it from taking place.
Holding the referendum is also complicated, Saeed says, because it would take place not only in the Kurdistan Region that Barzani is president of, but also in “disputed territories such as the oil-rich city of Kirkuk, Sinjar, Makhmour and Khanaqin.”