Vakhtang Siradeghyan,
In a recent interview, the second president of Armenia, Robert Kocharyan, admits that Nikol Pashinyan can be removed from the post of Prime Minister only by force of the street. I completely agree, because life has shown that the government in Armenia has not changed with the elections, will not change, will not change in the near future. And in order to remove it through the street, it is necessary to mobilize the masses. This, of course, must be preceded by the stage of mass rejection of Nikol.
In Yerevan, according to opinion polls, it has already reached 40%, which is quite a respectable figure. However, it seems that it is still not enough. If it were enough, there would be crowds of people protesting in the streets of the capital against the person holding the post of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia. Taking into account that the number of voters in Yerevan (ie adults) is equal to about 860 thousand, then 40% of that number will be approximately 350 thousand. And if at least 10% of that volume took to the streets, the Republic Square would look like it did in the days of the April 2018 events. And Nicole simply can not do anything against that force.
But today there are no people blocking the streets, and the square is empty if we do not take into account the small groups of protesters. And in this case, we are dealing with other factors. And the main one of those factors is the lack of a leader. I am aware of two possibilities for leader formation. In the first case, someone feels an unquenchable flame or receives the necessary support with appropriate funding, և forms a movement, becoming a leader. In the second case, the leader is born from the movement “takes people with him” (the heart of the hero of the third part of Maxim Gorky’s story “Old Izergil”). By the way, no matter how unpleasant it is today, we must admit that in April 2018, Nikolov revealed the first version of the emergence of a leader.
And the other factors, such as the presence of hot weather, the presence of a critical mass of people on the street, the issue of whether to trust the opposition, etc., are either insignificant or, being possible, are derived from the presence of a leader. The birth of a leader, of course, whether in the first or the second version, depends on how much the masses hate the person or political force that has the right to decide their own destiny.
In this sense, there is a rule or phenomenon called “golden cutting”. It is present in many spheres of life, its mathematical value is equal to “1.618:”.
Why not a multi-point’s unreadable question, the attentive reader will ask? I will answer because that number goes on indefinitely. The rounded percentage of golden ratio is “62% – 38%”. That is, dividing the whole into 62 և 38 percent segments. If a person or entity has 62% confidence or authority, it is common in social science to say that it is more than sufficiently acceptable to the public. And if we approach the issue from the opposite side, then in case of 62% distrust, the politician should at least leave politics. But since we live in Armenia, where until May 2018 it was nothing, and after that everything turned upside down, we can wait for such an event and not see it. And that’s the case with that person,