Panorama.am has conducted an interview with Laurent Leylekian, a
French analyst on the European Union and Minor Asia and Huffington Post
columnist, over the recent developments in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
settlement process.
Mr Leylekian, I would like to hear your comment about the recent
developments of Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, especially after the
meeting of the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers. What can you
say on this?
– The first thing I would like to say, maybe underlining, is the lack of
transparency. Of course, the negotiation processes are kept secret: we
don’t even know what is on the table, so it’s quite difficult to have a
definitive opinion. I have the impression, maybe quite pessimistic, of a
kind of communication policy from Azerbaijan. My point is the
following: Armenia recently experienced this famous ‘velvet revolution’,
and Armenia has now quite a good image of the dynamic country which is
stepping forward, and to cope with this new image of Armenia, Azerbaijan
is faking an impression to make some concession to agree to the talks.
So, you can see the things two ways: either that’s just a way for
Azerbaijan to drive a kind of communication policy in order to create a
good image too, or Azerbaijan is really expecting a lack of experience
from Mr Pashinyan in the Karabakh issue and is trying to get some gain
from this supposed weakness of Armenia. Honestly, I tend to think that
this is rather a communication policy.
– After the meeting, the OSCE Minsk Group’s statement was so
called positive one, and they stated that the ministers ‘agreed to
prepare the population for a peace process.’ Do you think it is
possible?
– When the Minks Group says that the countries need to prepare the
population for concession, they are in their role, that’s their duty to
say that thing, and that’s not the first time they say this. I am afraid
the people in Karabakh are not ready at all to make any concession,
because they are ignored by the the negotiation process, and also in
Azerbaijan because they have benn radicalized by their own authorities.
This is unbelievable. I’m pessimistic.
– What can you forecast for the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process for future?
– At the time being, thanks to this change in Armenia Azerbaijan is now
facing a hard situation. Yesterday they condemned again the European
Parliament on human right issues. In the meantime, they are buying
weapons from many countries, including my country France. They are also
lobbying in France to make the French authorities launch trials against
the cities, which set up so called friendship agreement with the cities
of Karabakh. So, I don’t see any change in Azerbaijan. They are making
some discourse, but the situation isn’t changing.
That’s a kind of wishful thinking from the Minsk Group co-chairs to say
that they are urging the countries and that they are showing this
optimistic mood, but in the end I don’t see something new. Recently
there has been troops movements in Nakhichevan, and I don’t see any
breakthrough in negotiations as long as the Minks Group doesn’t force
the parties to make some concession. Armenia said on a numerous
occasions that it is ready to make concession, Azerbaijan never did it.
So, to reach agreements, maybe I am pessimistic, but I don’t see
something positive in the near future.
Interview by Anna Mkrtchyan