(news.am) Turkey is actually unlikely to engage in the Karabakh conflict now and fuel war there, since the entire region of the South Caucasus will break into flame then. Even Turkey doesn’t need the opening of a second front during the unresolved Syrian conflict. Nadana Friedrichson, expert at the “KUB” analytic center, told the aforementioned to the “Vzglyad” newspaper, commenting on the statement of the Turkish PM that Ankara will do its best “for the liberalization of the occupied territories of Azerbaijan.”
According to her, Turkey is pouring oil on flames by the statements like those made by PM Ahmet Davutoğlu. But, in the analyst’s words, Azerbaijan must “treat such a statement realistically.” Even Turkey doesn’t need the opening of a second front during the unresolved Syrian conflict: “That’s why Azerbaijan won’t wholeheartedly rush in Turkey’s arms because of that promise. Conversely, it may possibly try to find a way in the Karabakh conflict so that Moscow and Ankara can perhaps discover a joint problem. Conflict resolution sometimes requires a joint problem, which should be resolved together and this helps the negotiation process.”
According to Friedrichson, Aliyev is very much likely to touch on the Karabakh issue or the fact that the Islamic State is also making its way to the South Caucasus, and somehow persuade the sides to withdraw the provocative rhetoric.
Referring to the proposals of Azerbaijan on the possible mediation in the normalization of relations between Anakara and Moscow, Friedrichson said that the country has recently been seeking to run a shifty foreign policy. Last time the Azerbaijani authorities demonstrated this after last year’s Crimean referendum, the expert said.
Aliyev realizes that the parties aren’t ready to take the conflict to a sever stage of confrontation, and is thus “trying to propose his candidacy for the role of a mediator, something that Kazakhstan used to do successfully in the past.”
“Both Moscow and Ankara have the intention to round off rough corners, but this should be done accurately, and Azerbaijan can propose some options… Of course, Aliyev wants to show himself as a peacemaker in the South Caucasus region. This is important for Aliyev in the context of the Karabakh conflict,” the expert says.
Apart from this, Friedricshon adds, it’s important for the Azerbaijani leader to raise his stakes on the international arena. According to her, Azerbaijan is now in a bad situation not only due to the controversy between Russia and Turkey, but also because of staggered economy, falling oil prices, unstable political situation and activity of the ISIS on the country’s territory.
Alyev has no choice but to start a war with Armenia. Otherwise, there’s no way to account for the missing billions from the state treasury. A hot war will solve that problem. But how to start it without being seen as the aggressor, is a very risky political move. Surely, even King SheepDip, realizes that the war was lost and NK is gone forever. Also, it’s in Russias interest to have a land bridge to it’s southern border. In any future conflict only an Armenian victory will serve it’s interest. But Russia does not want to be seen as the instigator either. So, because Armenia’s democratic form of government is not likely to accomplish an all out unilateral assault on Azerbaijan, certainly not without the Russians knowing about it, Armenia will not be the aggressor. Dictatorships are different. One telephone call from King SheepDip and the war is on. Many Armenians view that as a calamity. Modern war is different than conventional war of even twenty years ago. Logistics is what wins battles. Azerbaijan will likely be plagued by lack of supplies for their fast moving units, which will be rendered useless without supplies, while their fixed positions will be victimized by long range artillery. Already we’re finding out from Azery whistle blowers about corruption in their military. I do not doubt the outcome of any future military conflict, between Armenia, Artsackh and Azerbaijan Turkey. But I fear that we may not be prepared for the peace after. Psychologically, we seem to stop ourselves from greatness. We need to negotiate a favorable outcome now, before, not later when we won’t be needed. What do we want? Western Armenia, Cilicia, Compensation, restitution, etc.