Erdoğan’s choice vis-à-vis Taliban to determine a new, defining moment

It is over. It has only taken around 10 days for the irregular Taliban forces to take control over Afghanistan, completing a blitz offensive by de-facto demolishing the power structure in Kabul. The resignation President Ashraf Ghani and his hasty departure from the capital raise the curtain for a new and potentially tragic phase in the war-battered country.

U.S. President Joe Biden, through his decision to withdraw all U.S. military presence from Afghanistan, set in motion a gigantic tectonic shift, whose consequences will have an impact on global scale, by way of a massive, further destabilisation of the world order. The fall of Afghanistan adds to the list of two other states which are the epicentres of tremors that rattle the international stage: Syria and Libya.

Over the 40 years the country has been invaded – or intervened – by two super powers: First the Soviet Union, and following the events of 9/11, the United States. And now, it appears obvious, that a third country, Pakistan, is lurking behind the internal paramilitary take-over, by a fundamentalist, jihadist force, and will be an active stakeholder in the new era.

Keen observers of Afghanistan point out to Islamabad, with Prime Minister Imran Khan and his top commander, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, are the strategically eager choreographers of the Taliban victory. As also Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar’s flash visit last week to Pakistani capital proved, Pakistan is from now on the outmost key player – as the tutelary state of Taliban – on which all responsibility for the future of Afghanistan to be placed. Islamabad has acted on an opportunity, and it has to own the process.