analysts have called them Iran’s new proposals that show that Tehran enters into open competition with Moscow for influence in Armenia.
The most sensational was the proposal to Armenia regarding the transit of gas from Iran to Georgia and from there to Europe via Armenia. It is for the first time that such a proposal is made openly. The ambassador said that in case of Armenia’s consent it could sell cheaper gas to Armenia, and Armenia’s energy minister will soon visit Tehran where he is likely to discuss the matter.
Last December Armenia tied itself with Russia with what many consider to be a fettering agreement, according to which, in fact, for 30 years it will not be able to make decisions in the gas sector without Gazprom’s permission. The Russian state-run corporation supplies natural gas to Armenia and its subsidiary distributes it in the country on a monopoly basis and will not allow the entry of less expensive gas. But most importantly, Iran is gradually becoming the most powerful rival of Russia in the European gas market, and Moscow is trying to block all possible ways for Iranian gas to reach Europe.
By the way, the ambassador said that the likelihood of resumed hostilities in the Karabakh conflict zone is small and that Iran does not want destabilization in the region. He also said that to his knowledge, there are no Turkish military units in Nakhijevan. It looks like Iran’s ‘calming’ Armenia, which usually rejects favorable economic and political projects, citing the threat of destabilization in the region. In fact, Iran, through its ambassador, said that there are no threats in the region, that Tehran will take care of that and now Armenia should not be afraid to make an important step.
The next remarkable statement was that Iran is not interested in the appearance of third countries’ troops in the Karabakh conflict zone, because “it will become a threat to the whole region.” In fact, Iran says that it has the leverage that it will use not to allow the entry of other forces, including Russian troops, into the region, and, accordingly, will not allow the partition of Karabakh. Some experts believe that the function of peacekeeping forces in the Karabakh conflict would come down to ensuring a “peaceful” division of the territory currently controlled by Nagorno-Karabakh. And this is another “guarantee” of Iran to Armenia, which is not interested in the deployment of peacekeepers and the partition of Karabakh.
The Armenian-Russian gas agreement and a broader range of interests of Russia in Armenia has become a major obstacle not only to the development of Armenia and the removal of its economic blockade, but also a barrier to the opening of the entire region. The revision of the agreement is not a very simple matter, and the only “occasion” could be Georgia’s changing its attitude towards the transit of Russian gas to Armenia through its territory. On July 18, Georgia ratified the agreement on joining the Free Trade Area with the European Union, and when this agreement is ratified by all EU member states, Georgia can, in agreement with Brussels, change the rules for the transit of Russian gas to Armenia, which, in turn, may become a reason for denunciation of the agreement. And then Armenia will have nothing left but to start negotiations with Iran.