In response to Tert.am’s question concerning Azerbaijan’s determination to keep its promises to shoot down Armenian helicopters and airplanes in the Nagorno-Karabakh airspace, Russia-based political scientist, Doctor of History Alexander Krylov said:
“Considering bellicose statements and militant rhetoric prevailing in that country, I am sure that many other servicemen may try to follow Muradov’s example. I think that Azerbaijan’s leadership is less likely to take special steps to establish control of the Nagorno-Karabakh airspace. However, if the conflicting parties and mediators fail to defuse the tension, more skirmishes will occur.”
The downing of the Armenian helicopter during a training flight threatens with tensions and even hostilities. Do you think the situation will develop into large-scale hostilities? What is your opinion on the Azerbaijani foreign office’s statement declaring Nagorno-Karabakh’s airspace a no-fly zone?
For years, Baku has been trying to force the Armenian side into capitulation by pressing and “wearing out” the Armenian armed forces. It is no coincidence that I speak of ‘capitulation’ because it is not a matter of mutual concessions. Azerbaijan’s only aim is the capitulation in question, as well as re-establishing control of the territories Azerbaijan considers “occupied.” It is with that end in view that, from year to year, especially this year, the military component of this policy has shown an upward tendency. I mean the August events, and a helicopter has been shot down.
I do not think this tension will develop into new war because Ilham Aliyev can only launch a real offensive if Azerbaijan’s victory is guaranteed. This, in turn, is only possible if Azerbaijan has decisive military supremacy over Armenia, that is, international support, Turkey’s military support, as well as consent by Russia and other international actors. Otherwise, resuming hostilities would be a perilous adventure on Ilham Aliyev’s part. However, it does not mean that a new war is impossible. First, tension is most dangerous in that the situation might get out of the Azerbaijani and Armenian leaderships’ control and develop into a spontaneous process.
I consider especially dangerous Azerbaijan’s statements on its intention to shoot down all the helicopters and airplanes in the Nagorno-Karabakh airspace, which will make the Armenian side retaliate.
What are the reasons for Baku to show it is not inclined to a peaceful settlement by escalating tensions?
First, I should note that Azerbaijan’s social and economic situation is not at all in harmony with the revenues the state has due to its natural resources. And it is no secret that a great number of Azerbaijani citizens have to emigrate to Russia to earn their living. We should not forget that a substantial proportion of Azerbaijan’s population reside in rural areas and have low incomes.
What is your opinion of Azerbaijan’s determination to keep its promises to shoot down Armenian helicopters and airplanes in the Nagorno-Karabakh airspace?
Considering bellicose statements and militant rhetoric prevailing in that country, I am sure that many other servicemen may try to follow Muradov’s example. I think that Azerbaijan’s leadership is less likely to take special steps to establish control of the Nagorno-Karabakh airspace. However, if the conflicting parties and mediators fail to defuse the tension, more skirmishes will occur. It is in this case that a situation is much more likely to develop into a spontaneous process, which I have mentioned.