There is a public consensus in Armenia that if Nikol Pashinyan remains in power, we will very quickly lose a significant part of our country’s territory and perhaps our sovereignty, becoming a quasi-state under the control of Azerbaijan and Turkey,
with formal state institutions that are completely controlled by those countries. Approximately such a situation that Turkey planned for us in the Treaty of Alexandropol signed on December 2, 1920. There is also a public consensus that in order to save Armenia, it is necessary to remove Pashinyan and his government as soon as possible, otherwise, a continuous disaster will inevitably develop, as it has in the last four and a half years. But how to remove Pashinyan? seems to be a wall situation on this issue.
The so-called constitutional way, a change of power through elections, is excluded. Even the 2021 elections showed that even in the conditions of huge public dissatisfaction, the government, by using the administrative and financial resources it has, using the mechanisms of electoral fraud, intimidation and bribery, reproduces itself.
In general, the institution of choice is being devalued all over the world. In the USA, considered the most democratic country and the country that exports democracy, people are increasingly talking about voter fraud and unreliable election results. The former US President Donald Trump has been disputing the results of the 2020 elections for 2 years now and, in fact, is being persecuted, including by law enforcement agencies. Normal elections have never been held in Armenia, and the government of that moment, which possessed the administrative resources, always “won”. Even the Communist Party of Armenia won the Supreme Council elections in 1990, but the Armenian Nationalist Party managed to convert some communist deputies through pressure, and as a result, after several unsuccessful attempts, Levon Ter-Petrosyan was elected the Chairman of the Supreme Council.
The other way is the street struggle, the so-called revolutionary way, when the opposition forces the government to resign under street and public pressure. Life shows that this option does not work in Armenia either. First, Pashinyan mobilizes a police force of several thousand to more than 10,000 when necessary to protect himself and his government, which is enough to suppress public discontent. The opposition also explains its failure by the lack of a critical mass: not enough people gather on the streets, or those gathered are not so determined to take power.
The reality seems to be different. There is no revolutionary opposition in Armenia, a force with enough determination to take responsibility for leading the revolution. Holding a rally in the square and giving a speech have nothing to do with revolution and revolution. The proof of this was the events of September 13, when tens of thousands of determined people gathered in Republic Square and Baghramyan Street, whose energy could be used to seize power. Meanwhile, no political force or combination of forces took responsibility to lead the gathering, and the Protestant energy was once again contained. The development of events also shows that the existing opposition continues to live with the old agenda, considering taking power as a priority, in the event that
Theoretically, there is another way to remove Pashinyan: a military coup.
The high and middle officers of the army are more informed than others about the situation at the country’s borders and the threat to the statehood of Armenia. In the event of an army rebellion, the thousands of police forces gathered by Pashinyan will be ineffective, and the society will protect the army. Meanwhile, a military coup is a theoretical possibility, since Pashinyan managed to head the army staff, getting rid of the most rebellious and capable commanders.
There is another possibility of Pashinyan’s dismissal, which, however apocalyptic it may seem, is becoming more and more probable. The residents of Syunik, Vayots Dzor, Ararat Marz and the retreating army, under the threat of encirclement in the event of another enemy attack and our retreat, appear on the streets of Yerevan, and in the country of general chaos and panic, any government will cease to exist. Pashinyan and his close circle may be able to save their physical existence, but by then they will have managed to physically destroy, kill the Republic of Armenia. At least in its current form and limits.
Armenia has been divided many times in its history: between Rome and Persia, Arab Caliphate and Byzantium, Turkey and Persia. The last time it was separated in 1920, again due to the exceptionally insane behavior of our authorities and their clinging to power and their seats until the end, until the end of statehood. There are people who say that there is no place to share. how many places are there? Now is the 21st century, now they share the atom and its smaller particles, let alone Armenia.
Avetis Babajanyan