By Wally Sarkeesian
The way Armenia’s electoral system is set up (thanks to the geniuses in the previous government) is that to enter parliament, political parties must pass a 4% threshold (previously 5%), while multi-party alliances must pass 7–8% (previously 8%).
This system, while presented as a way to ensure stability, in practice favors larger parties—particularly Pashinyan’s Civil Contract Party—and makes it extremely difficult for smaller or “one-man” parties to gain representation. In the last election, nearly all of those smaller groups failed to reach the threshold, and their votes were effectively redistributed to the ruling party.
So, there are two fundamental things every voter should consider:
- Will the party or alliance I’m voting for realistically pass the threshold?
If the answer is no, your vote will likely be wasted and will indirectly support the ruling party, since all sub-threshold votes get redistributed. - Is the party or alliance I’m voting for genuinely in opposition to Pashinyan’s policies?
Many of the smaller “opposition” figures—such as Aram Sargsyan, Arman Babajanyan, and Tigran Khzmalyan—are, in reality, aligned with the government’s positions in most cases: anti-Russian, heavily backed by Western money, pro-Turkish, and supportive of the same policies that have led the country to its current state.
If the answer is yes, again, this effectively becomes another vote for Pashinyan’s continuation.
As for Arman Tatoyan, there’s still uncertainty about his stance on several issues, and more clarity is needed. At this stage, aside from Robert Kocharyan and Samvel Karapetyan, it’s unlikely that most of the smaller opposition figures will pass the 4% threshold on their own.
To have any real chance, these forces—the Republican Party (Serzh Sargsyan), Gagik Tsarukyan, Arman Tatoyan, ANC (Levon Ter-Petrosyan, Levon Zurabyan), Artur Vanetsyan, and others—must unite. Otherwise, their divided votes will once again go to waste and end up strengthening Pashinyan’s hold on power.