The attacks on Armenia represent a dangerous escalation, writes Seth Frantzman in an article for the Jerusalem Post.

“Armenia has recently leaned toward Russia in world affairs, while Azerbaijan has been friendly to Israel. Azerbaijan and Turkey are key allies. This means that the conflict in the Caucasus is not a small conflict, but is related to Turkey’s role in Syria and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Those who suffer from shelling are victims of these regional issues, victims of the broader context and power politics between the United States, Russia, Turkey and other states on which the fighting will stop.

The attack on Armenia came on the eve of this week’s meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Uzbekistan. Armenia and Azerbaijan are partners in the SCO dialogue, which is dominated by Russia, China and the Central Asian states. This year, however, Iran and Turkey are also participating.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has been pushing for an end to the recent fighting, appealing to France, Russia and the United States.  He spoke with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken.”

According to the U.S. State Department’s statemen the United States is deeply troubled by reports of attacks along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, including reports of strikes on population centers and civilian infrastructure inside Armenia. “As we have long made clear, there can be no military solution to the conflict. We call for an immediate cessation of all military action.”

However, Azerbaijan seems encouraged by Turkey’s support. Turkey is a member of NATO, but is also friendly to Iran and Russia.

Turkey has supported Azerbaijan and probably pushed it to attack. State media in Ankara spread statements about the conflict, claiming that it happened because of Armenian provocations. It is unclear what Ankara hopes to achieve here.

On the one hand, Ankara could use this as a kind of trump card at this week’s Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting. Reports that Azerbaijan wants to create a buffer or security zone inside Armenia appear to be related to Ankara’s demands to invade parts of Syria and create a similar security zone. Turkey has ethnically cleansed Afrin and Serekaniye after operations in 2018 and 2019 to create parts of this zone.

Another aspect of Ankara’s desire for conflict in the Caucasus could be to bring the U.S. into the region. The U.S. supports Ukraine against a Russian invasion. Turkey and Ankara’s supporters tend to portray Armenia as closer to Russia and Iran.

Thus, the context is to create a crisis in which Armenia can be presented as part of an alliance system with Russia. This could give Ankara an excuse to portray itself as a NATO member supporting its allies in Baku. A compromise here arises when Ukraine launches a successful counteroffensive and Moscow acquires Iranian drones. A weakened Moscow cannot support Armenia and will be asked to force Armenia to make concessions in exchange for new deals between Moscow and Istanbul.

Moscow has generally behaved this way in the past: wanting to weaken Armenia and isolate Yerevan in order to get other things from Ankara. Armenia wants support from Washington and Paris for a cease-fire, but it is hurt by the fact that NATO member Turkey is set against Armenia. Isolated and dependent on Moscow, Armenia is in a difficult position, perhaps paying the price for the world’s attention focused on Ukraine, as its adversaries use the conflict to seize more land from Armenia.

There will be more wars and conflicts like this one in a world where countries believe the world order led by the U.S. is collapsing, as countries try to redraw borders set 50 or 100 years ago. Ankara’s war in Syria is one example.  Ankara is stirring up conflict with Armenia. Russia’s war with Ukraine is another example.

There is an angle here that also has to do with Israel. Israel has close and positive relations with Azerbaijan; Azerbaijan has purchased drones from Israel. Nevertheless, Armenian-Israeli relations are on a roller coaster ride, tainted by fighting in 2020. This is a tragic aspect of history, because while both Armenians and Jews are victims of genocide, modern politics means that relations between the two nation-states are not strong. At this point.”

By Levon Satamian,

This atrocity began in 1915 and continued through 1923, as Turkey committed genocide, and 1.5 million Armenians were massacred during World War I. The goal of the Turks was to exterminate the Armenians. Their goal was for the Armenian people to become extinct, but they failed.

Now, Azerbaijan partnered with Turkey to try to commit a second genocide. In 2020, Azerbaijani forces attacked Nagorno-Karabakh, which killed 6,600 people. Armenians marched on the streets to get people’s attention, more importantly, world leaders’ attention. All we saw were empty statements by leaders around the world.

On Tuesday, Azerbaijani forces shelled Armenia’s territory, killing at least 49 Armenian soldiers.

How did CP mislead people?

At midnight yesterday, we learned that aggressor Azerbaijan is shelling in the directions of Syunik, Vayots Dzor and Gegharkunik. Although it was visible for a long time that the enemy would resort to provocations, which would bring huge casualties and wounded, the current authorities of Armenia kept putting a soft pillow under the heads of the public. For example, in his recent interview with Petros Ghazaryan, CP MP Arman Yeghoyan ruled out that Azerbaijan could ever attack Armenia. The MP specifically mentioned.

“Azerbaijan cannot do things that cannot be done according to the international order. What they want to do, according to the current international order, they cannot do,” Yeghoyan said, referring to the topic of a possible war. As we see, the reality is different.

In Armenia, there is our reality and the Nicolaian reality, which have nothing to do with each other. After the shameful defeat in 2020, Andranik Kocharyan, Chairman of the Standing Committee on Defense and Security Affairs of the National Assembly, in a conversation with journalists, when asked why we did not deploy our “Iskander” and why we did not target the enemy’s oil wells, responded: “We are doing well when if necessary, we will implement it. Leave that to the military professionals.”

Now the same Andranik Kocharyan should be asked a question, the enemy has come to Jermuk, and when will the time come to put your Iskander into action?

On September 12, Ambassador with special assignments Edmon Marukyan announced that Azerbaijan is preparing for new provocations. In response to this, CP deputy Gagik Melkonyan answered the question of one of the media, whether the Armenian army is ready for war, what reforms have you made in the army? “Of course it’s ready. We have done everything, sit back.”

In other words, they put a soft pillow under the heads of people with the whole team so that they can enjoy the power in peace. Today, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan officially announced that we have more than 49 victims, and just yesterday Melkonyan was saying, “Sit down.”

Hayk Gevorgyan

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On September 13, in the administrative complex of the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Armenia, the head of the Department of Defense Policy and International Cooperation of the Ministry of Defense, Levon Ayvazyan, and the deputy head of the main operational department of the Armed Forces, Colonel Albert Baghdadyan, met with the military attachés of foreign embassies accredited in the Republic of Armenia and presented the situation created as a result of the large-scale provocation of the Azerbaijani side.

It was noted that the Azerbaijani side intensively uses various artillery means, large-caliber rifles and anti-aircraft missiles, targeting not only military but also civil infrastructures. The Armenian side has victims and wounded.

The units of the RA Armed Forces continue to fulfill the combat tasks set before them, taking all the necessary measures to counteract the enemy.

It was emphasized that the military and political leadership of Azerbaijan is fully responsible for the large-scale provocation.

The Armenian side has victims and wounded as a result of the Azerbaijani aggression. The defense ministry noted that civilian infrastructures are being hit as well.

“The Armenian armed forces fully fulfills the combat tasks set before it. The Armenian side has victims and wounded, the data is being verified,” the defense ministry noted.

Azerbaijan opened fire on Tuesday night near the Armenian borders. The reports have been confirmed by the Armenian defense ministry spokesperson who said that the adversary also used UAVs.

One thing is clear: the scenario of the 44-day war is launched by the enemy. First, they eliminate the anti-aircraft defense systems, then attack with drones. The target is Zangezur.

Azerbaijan wants to take advantage of Russia’s difficult situation and has decided to use the opportunity to open the Zangezur corridor. If for this it is required that, in violation of the cease-fire agreement, he captures Syunik and cuts it off from Armenia, he will go for that. At this moment, all international structures should be brought to their feet: appeal to the CSTO, appeal to the European Union and Charles Michel, appeal to the President of the USA and the President of France. What are Lynn Tracy and Andrea Victorin, who visit the Prime Minister 5 times a week, doing right now if they are not contacting their bosses and demanding that they intervene and stop this annexation?