Nagorno-Karabakh crisis forces Western rethink on Azerbaijan

Baku has drawn the ire of the EU and US after years of promoting itself as a reliable security partner and vital transport hub,

As the dramatic images emerge of thousands of Karabakh Armenians forced away from their homes in a mass exodus, some in the west are beginning to rethink their relationship with Azerbaijan.

Through a mixture of skilled diplomacy and lobbying, the resource-rich country has for years promoted itself in the UK and EU as a reliable security partner and vital transport hub.

But by launching a military offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh and triggering a humanitarian catastrophe as refugees pour out of the region, the Azerbaijanpresident, Ilham Aliyev, has drawn the ire of the EU and the US.

“The crisis and human suffering could and should have been prevented,” said a senior western diplomat in Baku, speaking on condition of anonymity. “It will be trickier for us to continue as usual with Azerbaijan.”

At the UN last week, the German foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, accused Baku of “breaking its repeated assurances to refrain from the use of force, causing tremendous suffering to a population already in dire straits”. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, said Azerbaijani authorities were “uninhibited”.

“Many in Brussels and Washington feel shocked and betrayed by Azerbaijan’s use of force,” said Thomas de Waal, senior fellow at the Carnegie Europe thinktank. He said that western officials believe the inaction of the 2,000 Russian peacekeepers deployed to the region suggests that a side deal was reached between Moscow and Baku, who both blamed the Armenian prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, and his pro-western pivot for the fighting.

“The west has been marginalised, despite long efforts to solve the conflict,” De Waal said. “For a long time, Azerbaijan was very skilled at projecting its value to the west. But there seems to be a revaluation going on about just how important and trustworthy Baku really is.”

Baku for years has been said to employ so-called “caviar diplomacy”: using cash and gifts to buy influence in Europe. The Guardian previously revealed how Azerbaijan funnelled about $2.9bn (£2.2bn) out of the country via a network of secret British companies to pay supporters, lobbyists and politicians in Europe, buy luxury goods and services, and launder money for the Azerbaijani elite.

Prior to the latest fighting in Karabakh, Europe appeared to be moving closer to Baku, despite the country’s poor human rights record and credible evidence that it committed atrocities in the 2020 Karabakh war.

The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, travelled to Baku in 2022 as the EU looked to reduce its reliance on Russian energy, hailing Azerbaijan as a “crucial” and “reliable” energy supplier. She announced an agreement to double the EU’s purchases of Azerbaijani gas by 2027, but made no mention of the country’s human rights situation or its relationship with Armenia.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/26/nagorno-karabakh-crisis-forces-western-rethink-on-azerbaijan

There are compelling justifications for Pashinyan’s resignation, primarily stemming from the loss of Artsakh during his tenure due to both his actions and inactions. Each day Pashinyan remains in power poses a grave threat to Armenia’s future.

He bears responsibility for mishandling Armenia’s foreign and Karabakh policies through his populist rhetoric, lack of strategic direction, and absence of a clear vision. Pashinyan’s policies have resulted in the most significant tragedy for the Armenian people since 1915.

Western supporters of Armenia and Artsakh have failed to fulfill their commitments, a foreseeable outcome for seasoned politicians, but not for Pashinyan and his Civil Contract party.

Azerbaijan has now crossed all of the West’s established boundaries without encountering any sanctions directed at its government entities or officials. Assigning blame to Putin, Aliyev, Erdogan, or others is inconsequential. As an Armenian citizen, I can only hold my government accountable for mishandling every aspect of this situation.

Op-ed by Karen Harutyunyan, Editor-in-Chief

“The future of Armenia depends on one person, and that person is me. The future of Armenia depends on one person, and that person is you,” Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated in his Sunday address to the nation amid mass protests demanding his resignation following Artsakh’s devastating defeat and loss of independence, which has led to a mass exodus of Armenians.

Some argue that there is a concerted Russian effort to undermine Armenia’s statehood and independence, and they may have a point. Russia not only acquiesced to but also potentially greenlit Azerbaijan’s aggression and subsequent ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Armenia’s ruling party media apologists staunchly adhere to the government’s propaganda line. They suggest that while Pashinyan can be blamed for failing to address Armenia’s challenges, he is not solely responsible for the challenges facing Armenia and Artsakh. Since the end of the 2020 war, this concealed propaganda identifies various convenient scapegoats: former corrupt elites, the army, deserters, traitors, the Alma-Ata Protocol emphasizing member countries’ territorial integrity, Russians, Wagner Group mercenaries, and even the victims themselves — the people of Artsakh. Their ultimate goal is to whitewash the current government and portray it as a defender of Armenia’s sovereignty and independence, while those demanding Pashinyan’s resignation are depicted as “players of Russia’s game.”

There are compelling reasons why Pashinyan must step down, primarily because we lost Artsakh during his leadership, due to both his actions and inactions. Each day Pashinyan remains in office poses an existential threat to Armenia’s future.

He is responsible for screwing up Armenia’s foreign and Karabakh policy with his populist statements, lack of strategy, and lack of vision. Pashinyan’s policy has resulted in the greatest tragedy for the Armenian people since 1915.

All Western supporters of Armenia and Artsakh failed to meet their commitments, a foreseeable outcome for seasoned politicians, but not for Pashinyan and his Civil Contract party.

Azerbaijan has now breached all of the West’s red lines without facing any sanctions so far on its government agencies or officials. Assigning blame to Putin, Aliyev, Erdogan, or others is irrelevant. As a citizen of Armenia and an Armenian, I can only hold my government accountable for mishandling everything.

No one should reinforce Pashinyan’s unofficial narratives about “sovereignty and independence.” His populist rhetoric regarding sovereignty now threatens to erode the last remnants of Armenia’s sovereignty.

Pashinyan must step down and pave the way for the establishment of an interim government of national unity before holding snap parliamentary elections. He and his party pose a significant threat to Armenia’s sovereignty and independence.

P.S.

This article was ready for publication when the breaking news came: “The Nagorno-Karabakh Republic will be formally dissolved by the end of the year. All government agencies are ordered to be disbanded by January 1, 2024, according to a decree issued Thursday by President Samvel Shahramanyan.”

Pashinyan must resign now, without any reservations. 

Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) President Samvel Shahramanyan signed a decree Thursday on the actions derived from the situation after September 19.

According to the decree, in the light of the complex military and political situation, based on the priority of ensuring physical safety and vital interests of the people of Artsakh, taking into account the agreement reached through the command of the Russian peacekeeping contingent with representatives of Azerbaijan on ensuring free, voluntary, and unrestrained passage of residents of Nagorno-Karabakh, including the armed servicemen, by their property on their vehicles along the Lachin corridor, and in accordance with article 93 of the Nagorno-Karabakh Constitution, the following decision was made:

1) Dissolve all state institutions and organizations under their administrative jurisdiction by January 1, 2024, and the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) ceases to exist.

2) After the entry into force of this Decree, the population of Nagorno-Karabakh, including those outside the Republic, should read the conditions of reintegration presented by Azerbaijan, in order to make further an independent and individual decision on the possibility of stay (return) in Nagorno-Karabakh.

This Decree will enter into force immediately after its publication.

Armenia has filed an appeal with the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) concerning the arrest of Ruben Vardanyan by Azerbaijan. Hasmik Samvelyan, spokesperson for the Office of the Representative of Armenia on International Legal Matters, confirmed this in response to a query from NEWS.am.

Earlier, NEWS.am reported that Ruben Vardanyan, the former Minister of State of Artsakh, was detained by Azerbaijani authorities while attempting to cross the Lachin Corridor. Azerbaijan’s State Border Service confirmed the arrest of Ruben Vardanyan as he was trying to leave Artsakh.

In a statement, Veronika Zonabend, Ruben Vardanyan’s wife, explained that her husband had been arrested and captured by Azerbaijani authorities at the border while attempting to leave Artsakh along with thousands of other Armenians who had fled the Azerbaijani occupation.

“My husband, Ruben Vardanyan, the philanthropist, businessman and former minister of state of Artsakh, has been arrested and held captive by the Azerbaijani authorities at the border as he attempted to leave this morning, along with thousands of Armenians escaping Azerbaijani occupation. Ruben stood with the Arsakh people during the 10-month blockade and suffered along with them in the struggle for survival. I ask for your prayers and support to ensure my husband’s safe release,” she said.

William Bairamian

The Russian Foreign Ministry has released an extraordinary statement on what is happening in Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) and Armenia.

What’s more, the Russian MFA has effectively confirmed that Nikol Pashinyan has treasonously colluded to undermine the sovereignty of Artsakh and the security of Armenia, leading to the ethnic cleansing of over a hundred thousand ethnic Armenians from their millennia-old homeland in favor of appeasing Western powers.

One thing to note is how pointed the statement is, quite unusual for any diplomatic text, especially one from the Russians. Some highlights: “Had Nikol Pashinyan agreed to a ceasefire a few weeks earlier, the defeat would have been less severe.” Within a few weeks of the start of the 2020 War, it became clear to anyone not dependent on the Pashinyan regime’s own atrocious misinformation, that Armenia was either outgunned, outplanned, and/or outmaneuvered.

Nevertheless, Pashinyan, inexplicably, kept pushing on, though only in speech, not in action. He kept calling for recruits, but not engaging the standing army, or the reserves; he kept calling for volunteers to fight and die in a great patriotic war, while not availing Armenia of the weaponry at its disposal. Groups of men were being massacred in by drones, with no apparent change in Armenian strategy. Most befuddling of all was that there seemed to be no urgency in stopping the bloodbath. With the Russian MFA’s statement, it has become clear that Pashinyan prolonged the war unnecessarily, cost the lives of thousands more young Armenian men, lost Shushi, and made it practically impossible for Artsakh to recuperate from the defeat.

“In regional affairs, instead of adhering to the gentlemen’s agreement reached by the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia in November 2020 to leave the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh’s status to future generations, Nikol Pashinyan succumbed to Western influence.” This is a bombshell. The Russian MFA is suggesting that there was an agreement, including with Azerbaijan, that the issue was not to be immediately resolved, and that Pashinyan reneged on his commitment, and circumvented both Russia and Azerbaijan to pursue an alternate path with parties in the West that were not present at the time of the ceasefire. Extraordinary.

“In Prague and Brussels, the decision was made to act based on the 1991 Alma-Ata Declaration by recognizing Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh. This fact fundamentally altered the circumstances that were in place when the trilateral declaration of November 9, 2020 was signed, as well as the situation of the Russian peacekeeping contingent.”

In Pashinyan’s ploy to “recognize” that Azerbaijan has a right to Artsakh, which he cannot unilaterally do, he obviated the role of the Russian peacekeepers whose presence was contingent on a pending final agreement between the parties. If Artsakh was considered a part of Azerbaijan according to Pashinyan, then that implied that the status of Artsakh was settled, thus leading to Azerbaijan’s belief that it was justified in reclaiming territory that it considered its own, which resulted in military action to “retake” the territory, solely precipitated by Pashinyan indicating to Azerbaijan through his statement that Armenia would not intervene.

“In particular, Nikol Pashinyan failed to sign the decision agreed by all six foreign ministers to deploy a CSTO observer mission to the areas bordering on Azerbaijan.” What is the last thing one would want if they wanted to help someone steal something if not a group of trained eyes watching? Pashinyan loudly criticized the CSTO, but apparently refused to allow the stationing of a CSTO mission to monitor border areas, many of which have, since 2020, come under fire, attack, and occupation by Azerbaijan. It is important to note here that this has to do with Armenia’s security, not Artsakh’s.

“The situation was further exacerbated by Armenia’s persistent denial of the continued presence of Armenian armed formations in Nagorno-Karabakh after November 9, 2020, which became one of the key reasons for the escalation in September.” This is absolutely incredible. Russia is unequivocally saying that Armenia prevented Armenians from defending themselves through military units, thus leaving them utterly defenseless when Azerbaijan attacked yet again in September. Again: Pashinyan and his government actively neutered a potential Armenian defense against another Azerbaijani attack. “Notably, during the above meetings in Prague and Brussels under the auspices of the European Union, the Prime Minister of Armenia acknowledged Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, but failed to address the rights and safety of the Karabakh Armenians.”

Russia is saying in no uncertain terms that Pashinyan abandoned Artsakh’s Armenians, while giving a free pass to Azerbaijan, which the latter then used to launch a military operation that not only killed more Armenians but also sealed Artsakh’s fate. This might seem hyperbolic if it were not confirmed by every last instance of inaction on the part of Pashinyan and his government to intervene in the progressive elimination of Artsakh’s Armenian population, as well as the nonchalant betrayal of Artsakh to the whims of Azerbaijan’s violent dictatorship.

“The Prime Minister of Armenia should be well aware of the fact that, unlike the West which has become quite skilled in organizing color revolutions, Moscow does not engage in such activities.” This is where the Russians could have shown a bit more self-awareness. In 2018, they did not seem terribly concerned that a color revolution took place in Armenia that wrought this tragedy not only upon their longtime ally but also on the relationship they are now lamenting the loss of. That said, this statement proves beyond a reasonable doubt – if anyone had one after November 9, 2020, to begin with – that in conjunction with the members of his regime, Nikol Pashinyan has betrayed Artsakh and, what’s more, he has betrayed Armenia. We did not need the Russians to tell us, but we can add this to a long list of evidence that proves the point. There has been no greater traitor in Armenian history than Nikol Pashinyan.

The Statement: https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1906229/?lang=en&clear_cache=Y