The landmark moment for Armenia to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh’s independence is drawing near, says Stepan Grigoryan, a Yerevan-based political analyst.
According to him the process requires an appropriate consideration and timing. “Recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh’s independence implies automatically abandoning [the OSCE Minsk Group] format. Azerbaijan has embarked on diplomatic processes to unilaterally withdraw from earlier arrangements. Hence I don’t think we should be the side responsible for dismantling that format. But the moment of recognition is definitely drawing near,” he said.
Asked to comment on the necessary political efforts for Armenia, Grigoryan said he sees quite a lot of steps ahead.
“I have given recommendations many times before, but I see very little feedback. On April 2, for example, I said that Armenia should apply to the UN Security Council, calling for an ad hoc session and coordinating the plan with the Minsk Group. ”
As to why the Minsk Group is silent while it sees Azerbaijan attacking civilians, Mr Grigoryan said that it is now difficult to identify the conflicting party responsible for the escalation, whereas it was much easier to do on April 2, but was not done.
“When Azerbaijan launched hostilities, regrettably no one condemned Azerbaijan. And now that Azerbaijan resorts to provocations, our forces retaliate – and they are right – and it is difficult to say for certain. When the very first ceasefire violations take place, it is quite easy to identify the part responsible for that. Regrettably, the international community had not the strength to tell the truth,” Mr Grigoryan said.
It is the lack of necessary statements that are the cause of the current confrontation.