Maybe there will be another war tomorrow A country cannot escape its geography. Armenia, wedged between busy neighbors, is therefore trying to find new allies.
By Meike Dülffer, Jermuk, Yerevan,
Shurnuch According to an Armenian joke, if you ironed Armenia, it would be as big as Russia. Unironed, it’s just 12,000 square miles of mountains wedged between Iran, Turkey, Georgia, and Azerbaijan. That’s a problem. With whom can this small country trade, and who supports and protects it? Three million inhabitants, old monasteries, lakes, mountains, delicacies, and vibrant life in the capital Yerevan.
Recently, Armenia has become a little bit smaller and there is a great fear that it could become even smaller. Last September, Azerbaijan fired rockets at the Armenian resort town of Jermuk. Up to 55 impacts were counted, says Armen Tadewosyan, who operates the chairlift here. The remains of a Grad rocket lie behind a little house next to the lift, and the plastic windows of a small café are torn to pieces. Already in Soviet times people came here to relax.
Jermuk is located in eastern Armenia at 2,000 meters in the South Caucasus, skiing in winter, hiking in summer, mineral water and fresh air all year round. There used to be 30,000 tourists a year, but who wants to vacation in the field of fire now? Not only Jermuk was attacked last year, but also other Armenian towns near the border with eastern neighbor Azerbaijan. The conflict with Azerbaijan has escalated in recent years. After Armenia lost the last war in 2020 over the Armenian-inhabited region of Nagorno-Karabakh (Armenian Arzakh), which is part of Azerbaijan under international law, it had to cede several previously Armenian-controlled areas to Azerbaijan following a ceasefire agreement. In the following two years, Azerbaijan finally attacked various places on Armenian territory that actually have nothing to do with the Karabakh dispute.
In Jermuk, Azerbaijani troops even advanced several kilometers into Armenian territory in the mountains. The cable car operator Tadewosyan points to the snow-capped mountains that surround the place: “You can see one of their positions up there!” They are only a few kilometers away. A pattern of escalation There is fear in the country because of such attacks on Armenian territory. Are there new attacks? Is a major military escalation imminent? War? “We’re seeing a pattern,” says Deputy Foreign Minister Vahan Kostanyan, referring to the threat situation.
“First there are minor provocations at the border, then the rhetoric of the Azerbaijanis escalates and finally there is a major attack.” That’s how it was before the attacks last September, and that’s how it is now again. The fact that the authoritarian Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev recently gave his speech on the Nowruz New Year celebrations in Nagorno-Karabakh, where around 120,000 Armenians currently live without access to Armenia, is seen as a provocation in Armenia.
And it is observed with particular attention that Aliyev has repeatedly spoken of “West Azerbaijan” in relation to Armenia in the past few months, a phrase that makes the Armenians fear for their existence. A major point of contention between the two countries is currently the Azerbaijani demand for a corridor to the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhichevan. Armenia is ready to open a road between Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan, but nothing more. An extraterritorial corridor controlled by Azerbaijan would cut off the Armenian region of Syunik from the rest of Armenia and potentially make it attractive to Azerbaijani expansionist aspirations.
Source: https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2023-03/armenien-aserbaidschan-waffenstillstand-russland?wt_zmc=sm.int.zonaudev.twitter.ref.zeitde.redpost.link.x&utm_medium=sm&utm_source=twitter_zonaudev_int&utm_campaign=ref&utm_content=zeitde_redpost_link_x&utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2F