The relationship between the EU and Turkey has become very frosty. At their summit in Bulgaria, Turkish officials will discuss human rights and military operations with their EU counterparts.

The frosty weather is set to improve at the Bulgarian resort of Varna on the Black Sea from Monday onward. However, the forecast is less promising for the political climate at the summit taking place there between leading representatives of the European Union and Turkey.

At the start of the year, French President Emmanuel Macron described relations between Turkey and the European Union as “hypocritical.” And, in her address to the Bundestag last week, German Chancellor Angela Merkel was unusually outspoken in her criticism of Turkey’s military offensive against Kurds in northern Syria. Turkey reacted sharply. “Some of our allies see the situation with the eyes of terrorists” was the Foreign Ministry’s response.

The EU states have now recorded their current displeasure in an unequivocal declaration. In a statement published in advance of the EU summit in Brussels, the European Council “strongly condemns Turkey’s continued illegal actions in the eastern Mediterranean and in the Aegean Sea” and “expressed its grave concern over the continued detention of EU citizens in Turkey.”

More than misunderstandings

Dialogue is clearly needed. The president of the European Council, Donald Tusk, and EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker will be among those in Bulgaria to speak to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. At stake are the frozen EU accession negotiations, ease of travel to the bloc for Turkish citizens and, of course, another €3 billion ($3.7 billion) for the controversial refugee agreement.

This last will be top of the list at the summit. In her recent government declaration, German chancellor Angela Merkel made it very clear that she stands by the agreement and “will always defend it.” The accord between Turkey and the EU was signed two years ago, to stop refugees from Syria and other countries from traveling onward to the bloc. It’s one of the reasons why the European Union, and Germany in particular, have been so restrained in their response to Turkey’s attacks on the Afrin region: human rights abuses and military actions that clearly contravene international law. If the European Union alienates Turkey, the country could again open its borders to permit the movement of displaced people.