In an interview with Tert.am, Russia-based expert Andrey Areshev commented on the situation on the line of contact, possible outcomes, the side’s potential and motivations.

“I think the conflict is going through a critical phase and, regrettably, may escalate into a large-scale war unless the hostilities end in the near future. I regard the situation as most complicated and unpredictable,” Mr Areshev said.

Asked about the reasons for Azerbaijan’s attacks in early April, the expert said:

“We can give only a partial answer to this question. I think official Baku believes that early April is the best moment for external and internal factors facilitating such actions. I cannot fully understand the grounds for such conclusions in Baku. I think the Nagorno-Karabakh army will soon show official Baku the actions taken by Baku and the forces behind it are wrong.”

Russian military experts, namely, Mr Tsyganov, told Haqqin.az that Azerbaijan’s military equipment is much more powerful than that at the Armenian side’s disposal because Azerbaijan was able to re-enforce its reserves during the ceasefire. Do you share the opinion given the fact that Russia is supplier of the weapons and last night Azerbaijan used a Smerch multiple rocket launcher it had purchased from Russia?

I find it difficult to comment on Mr Tsyganok’s statement. I would say that it is not only the formal power, but also a number of other factors that ensure a military potential – it is common knowledge. I think Armenia and Karabakh on the one hand, and Azerbaijan on the other hand, have equal military potential, which rules out a Blitzkrieg. The defense army’s successful actions are evidence thereof. And the best evidence is the lack of success reports by Azerbaijan and its disseminating disinformation on alleged success. As to the use of offensive weapons, we can see Azerbaijan is not quite effective. According to confirmed information, the Armenian forces destroyed one of the TOS-1A “Solntsepyok” systems even before it was used. Let us wait for further developments, which will show the effectiveness of the weapons at Azerbaijan’s disposal. I would like to say that Azerbaijan is using not only Russian weapons, but also Israeli drones, probably Turkish weapons, during different attacks. We are well aware of Armenia’s reaction to Russian-Azerbaijani military cooperation. My personal opinion is that any cooperation with a side that resorts to shelling settlements using such destructive weapons must be suspended if not smashed at all.