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Could the Kurds beat Terrorist State of Turkey in Syria?

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by Michael Rubin,

After a multi-day artillery barrage, the Turkish Army has begun its push into Afrin, a district of Syria which has been governed by Syrian Kurds ever since they defeated al Qaeda and Islamic State terrorists. Turkish officials say they plan to set up a buffer zoneextending almost 20 miles into Syria from the Turkish border. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gave a blistering speech threatening Turkey’s Kurds if they speak up on behalf of their Syrian counterparts and promising victory within “a very short period of time.”

That may be a fatal miscalculation, one which could cripple Turkey. Erdogan’s paranoia and political meddling in the military have taken a toll. Once the pride of NATO, the Turkish military and security services are a shadow of their former self. They lack the experience, training, and discipline of their predecessors. One in four Turkish pilots is in prison; many Turkish F-16s are grounded for lack of trained pilots. In 2012, Syrian forces downed a Turkish F-4, and Kurds have downed Turkish helicopters.

Nor is it clear the Turkish army can fight effectively. The Turks may occupy pockets in Syria, but their presence has long been more symbolic than real. One of the reasons the Turkish intelligence service (MIT) supplied and supported the al Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front and allowed the Islamic State free transit across Turkish territory was a quid pro quo in order to protect Turkish interests inside Syria. In short, Erdogan wanted to assume the status of military commander without actually having to fight the tough battles that originally elevated Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, founder of the Republic of Turkey, to prominence.

Turkey’s competence gap can be seen in the few incidents where Turkish forces have come into contact with adversaries in Syria or Iraq. In 2016, the ISIS burned to death two Turkish soldiers that it captured in Syria. That ISIS terrorists were able to kidnap them in the first place demonstrates massive security lapses, and that Turkey was unable to determine their location prior to their execution reflects gaps in Turkish intelligence. Rather than acknowledge their murder, Erdogan responded as he often does with denial and deflection, refusing to acknowledge the accuracy of the video and then imposing a media blackout on the murders.

Turkey’s weakness is also reflected in deteriorating internal security. Terrorists have for decades targeted Turkey, but Turkish security forces successfully exposed and disrupted terrorist plots. After Erdogan purged senior military and security officials and rotated others out of territories and portfolios they knew inside-out, terrorism surged not only inside Turkey but even in the once-safe cities of Istanbul and Ankara. This should not have been unexpected to any leader cognizant of history. The Red Army hemorrhaged effectiveness after Soviet dictator Josef Stalin purged the officer corps prior to the Nazi invasion during World War II. Iraqi inroads into Iran in 1980 were due not only to the element of surprise, but also to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s hobbling of the Iranian officer corps during his post-revolutionary purge. More recently, ISIS seized Mosul after former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki replaced more professional officers with political loyalists who chickened out and ran at the sound of the first shot.

Turkey has fought the PKK since 1984. The group suffered a blow in 1999 when Turkish commandos, perhaps assisted by U.S. or Israeli intelligence, seized PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan. While Turkish officials for more than a decade insisted the imprisoned and isolated Ocalan has become irrelevant, Erdogan transformed him into an indispensable Kurdish political leader by agreeing to negotiate peace with him. Erdogan may like to depict the PKK as terrorists — and, without doubt, they have engaged in terrorism — but in recent years, they have transformed themselves into more of a traditional insurgency. And while the links between the PKK and the Syrian-based Popular Mobilization Units (YPG) are real, Turkish officials are hard-pressed to attribute any attacks inside Turkey to Syrian Kurds from Afrin.

But while Turkey’s military is a shadow of its former self, the same can’t be said for the YPG. The Kurdish militia has been the most effective fighting force on the ground in Syria against al Qaeda and ISIS. For years, they operated alone — ignored by the United States and Russia, isolated by other Syrian opposition groups, and embargoed by Turkey. And yet, at Kobane and elsewhere, their discipline, high morale, and cohesion paid off. If they could operate against all odds against ISIS, they can likewise be a formidable opponent against Turkey, especially with home field advantage.

Nor is the PKK amateurish, especially after years of hardening in battle. In another incident censored by Turkey, PKK operatives managed to capture two of Turkey’s leading intelligence officials.

Nor are Turkey’s aims clear. There is hardly a Kurdish farmer or shopkeeper that Turkish officials — in assessments blinded by racism and ignorance — don’t see as terrorists. If Turkey seeks to wipe out “terrorists,” does that mean engaging in ethnic cleansing inside Syria? And, if that happens, what is to stop a blowback that will not only send hundreds of Turkish troops back home in body bags, but will also ignite the already repressed Kurdish population inside Turkey? If Turkey has been unable to defeat the PKK in Diyarbakir and Hakkari, will they be able to do so in Istanbul and Antalya? Just as Erdogan’s forces once supplied al Qaeda and ISIS with weaponry, what might happen if other countries — Russia, Israel, the Syrian regime, or even the United States — decide covertly to provide the means for the YPG to better defend themselves? If Kurds bring the fight into Turkey, can Turkey’s economy survive as the multi-billion dollar tourist industry shrinks 75 percent?

Erdogan operates in a domain of ego and ambition unencumbered by reality. He brands those who question him as terrorists, and so top aides understand they must tell him only what he wishes to hear. The result, now that Turkish forces are moving into Afrin against an opponent stronger than Erdogan realizes, could be disaster for Turkey. Erdogan may expect a quick victory. Not only is this not realistic, but he may soon find that what he sees as an ignorant terrorist group is strong enough to bleed Turkish invaders dry and run the Turkish economy into the ground.

Erdogan may set the stage not for triumphant victory but for a defeat that will shake Turkey to the core.

Michael Rubin (@Mrubin1971) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. He is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and a former Pentagon official.

Source: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/could-the-kurds-beat-turkey-in-syria/article/2646726

Kurds reportedly destroy five Turkish tanks in Syria’s Arfin

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A video has appeared on YouTube showing the Kurdish YPG militia launch an anti-tank guided missile at a Turkish Leopard tank as the Turkish Army advanced toward Afrin in an offensive against the Kurdish forces.

Citing the ANF News agency, Sputniknews.com reports that the tank was hit in the area of the village of Kurdo in the Bilbil district of the Syrian city of Afrin on Sunday morning.

The video has been posted on the YouTube channel of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG).

In a single day, Kurdish fighters destroyed five Turkish tanks in the Afrin area, ANF reported.

Two tanks were hit in the village of Diqmetash and two in the vicinity of the town of Tel-Rifat. It is in these areas that the fiercest battles are currently being fought between Kurds and the Turkish Army.

The Kurdish command reported that four Turkish soldiers and 10 pro-Turkish guerrillas were killed in the fighting in northwestern Syria.

“As a result of these clashes, 10 members of the gang were killed in different parts of the region, 20 bandits [members of the armed Syrian opposition] were wounded. In addition, four Turkish soldiers were killed and many were injured in clashes in Bilbil,” the YPG reported in a press release.

It also said that during the clashes three soldiers of the Kurdish militia were killed.

 

Turkey’s Invasion ground forces enter Syria’s Kurdish-held Afrin: State media

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Turkey says its military forces have crossed into Syria’s Kurdish enclave of Afrin. Ankara began an air assault to take the area, held by the US-backed Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), on Saturday.

Turkish forces crossed the border into Syria’s Afrin district on Sunday, Prime Minister Binali Yildirim has said.

At a news conference in Istanbul, he said Turkey’s military aimed to create a security zone some 30 kilometers (18 miles) inside the war-ravaged country.

The state-run Anadolu news agency also reported the arrival of Turkish forces in the enclave as part of an operation codenamed Olive Branch, adding that airstrikes and artillery shelling that targeted the area, which began on Saturday, were continuing.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he hoped the offensive would be completed in “a very short time.”

YPG denies reports

Turkey’s claims were immediately denied by a Kurdish People’s Protection Units, or YPG, spokesman, who said Turkish forces and their rebels tried to cross into the province but failed, after fierce clashes erupted.

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported fighting between the two sides on the northern and western edges of Afrin, but said that Turkish troops had failed to advance.

Although Ankara has not released figures on the number of Turkish troops involved in the offensive, SOHR’s director Rami Abdurrahman said some 10,000 Syrian fighters have been readied.

The apparent ground assault comes a day after Turkey launched an air assault against the Syrian-Kurdish YPG militia, which controls the northwestern corner of Syria, and which Ankara regards as a terror group linked to a more than three-decade insurgency in its southeast.

Saturday’s airstrikes and artillery fire were backed by pro-Turkey Syrian rebels who were engaged in a “comprehensive” ground operation against the YPG, Andadolu said.

SOHR said six civilians, including a child, were killed in Saturday’s airstrikes on Afrin.

Rockets hit Kilis

Early on Sunday, four suspected YPG rockets struck the central-southern Turkish town of Kilis from across the Syrian border, the town’s governor said.

Governor Mehmet Tekinarslan said the rockets hit two houses and an office, slightly injuring a woman, before Turkish artillery returned fire.

“No one lost their life,” Tekinarslan was cited by the Dogan news agency as saying. “They can fire one rocket at us and we will fire 100 back. There is no need to worry.”

While Erdogan has vowed to crush the Kurdish militia, the YPG is the major force within the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces alliance, which is leading the fight against the “Islamic State” (IS) militant group in Syria.

The decision has sunk US-Turkey ties to new lows and forced other nations to urge an immediate end to the offensive.

“This fighting … must stop,” French Defense Minister Florence Parly told France 3 Television on Sunday, adding that the new conflict could “deter Kurdish forces who are at the side” of the international coalition battling IS.

France also called for United Nations action to help minimize the “humanitarian risks” as the fighting escalates in Syria.

“Ghouta, Idlib, Afrin — France asks for an urgent meeting of the Security Council,” Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said on Twitter.

The ministry said in a statement that Le Drian spoke to his Turkish counterpart, Mevlut Cavusoglu, by phone Sunday. He called on Turkish authorities to “act with restraint in a context where the humanitarian situation is deteriorating in several regions of Syria,” the statement said.

mm/jlw (AFP, AP, dpa, Reuters)

Breaking News: Syria threatens hostile action towards Turkey if they attack Afrin

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Syrian Foreign Ministry has warned Turkey against taking hostile action in Afrin, saying that Damascus will consider it an act of aggression and undermine the country’s sovereignty.

“We warn the Turkish leadership that if they initiate combat operations in the Afrin area, that will be considered an act of aggression by the Turkish army,” deputy foreign minister Faisal Meqdad told reporters.

The statement was made after Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu’s statement made earlier in the day, saying that Ankara would intervene in Syria’s Afrin and Manbij, citing the threat posed by the Kurdish militants to the integrity of the Syrian border.

Cavusoglu has also outlined the country’s position towards Syrian government forces in Idlib, saying that their advance should be stopped.

 

10,000 bodies buried in mass graves across Syria’s Raqqah: Official

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A senior Syrian medical official says members of the Daesh islamic State terrorist group have executed 10,000 people and buried their bodies in mass graves across the country’s northern city of Raqqah.

Syrian Forensic Medicine General Director Zaher Hajo told Arabic-language and pro-government al-Watan daily that his colleagues had confirmed the presence of 4,000 bodies in one single grave.

Hajo went on to say that Syrian Health Minister Nizar Yazigi has ordered the formation of a committee in order to collect the remains of the victims and transfer them to the military hospital in the northwestern city of Aleppo.

He stated that identification of the victims, using their teeth and bones, will start next week, stressing that he will chair the committee.

Hajo said the mass graves have been found in areas now controlled by the so-called Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – a US-backed group of Kurdish and Arab forces.

The SDF said on October 20, 2017 that it had “liberated” Raqqah after driving out Daesh terrorists from the city, which served as Daesh’s de facto capital in the war-ravaged Arab country.

The US-backed forces later said the political future of the city and the province of the same name would be determined “within the framework of a decentralized, federal, democratic Syria.”

SDF spokesman Talal Silo said than the group would hand over the control of Raqqah to what he called “the Raqqah Civil Council.”

Syrian Minister of National Reconciliation Affairs Ali Haidar reacted by saying that Raqqah’s future could only be discussed “as part of the final political structure of the Syrian state.”

The so-called Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) has, meanwhile, said that the SDF’s purported operations in Raqqah have killed civilians and damaged infrastructure in the city.

“When you’re killing around 1,200 civilians — nearly half of them women and children — and destroying 80 percent of the city, that’s not liberating Raqqah,” Rami Abdel Rahman, the head of the SOHR, told Arab News daily newspaper.

Syrian Kurd YPG Commander General Sipan Hemo: Afrin war will be the final

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Regarding Turkey’s attempt to invade Afrin and Manbij, YPG Commander General Sipan Hemo said: “We will free the region of Erdoğan menace just like our YPG/YPJ forces cleared the region of ISIS.”

People’s Defense Units (YPG) Commander General Sipan Hemo spoke to ANF about the Turkish state’s preparations to invade Afrin and Manbij.

Hemo stressed that they will continue to protect the gains of Kurdish and Syrian peoples, and that they are prepared to do that, adding; “We as YPG will strongly respond to whoever attacks and threatens Afrin, Rojava or anywhere else, let it be Erdoğan or someone else.”

“WE WILL CONTINUE TO PROTECT OUR GAINS”

Commenting on Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s remarks “We might come a night all of a sudden”, Hemo said they will continue to protest the gains of Kurdish people and peoples of the region.

“During the six years of struggle in Rojava (Western) Kurdistan, our forces have not gone beyond the targets they set for themselves. We had clearly stated that we will be protecting the Kurdish people’s gains in Rojava. On this basis, our forces mounted defense and responded to the attacks against Rojava Kurdistan. Historic steps have been taken and historic battles have been fought against terrorist forces, witnessing great bravery.”

“ERDOGAN BEARS ENMITY SINCE THE FIRST DAY”

Hemo recalled that the Turkish state has already launched attacks and uttered threats against Rojava at every opportunity for 6 years now, continuing as follows; “The Turkish state and President Erdoğan adopted a hostile attitude and launched attacks since the first day a movement emerged in Rojava Kurdistan. Today’s attacks and threats by Tayyip Erdoğan are nothing new. They have been waging a war against Rojava Kurdistan in various manners for 6 years anyway. However, all their attacks have failed, not a single one of them has succeeded.”

“THEY ATTACKED BEFORE”

Underlining that the Turkish state had several gang groups attack the Kurdish people in Aleppo and Afrin before with the ultimate goal of creating a conflict among the Kurds and the region’s peoples, Hemo said; “Their plan collapsed when they failed in this. After that, they developed attacks against our forces with the hand of Jabhat Al-Nusra in Serêkaniyê soon after the beginning of July 19 Revolution. Our forces resisted and cleared Serêkaniyê of the gang groups.”

“ALL THEIR PLANS WERE EXPOSED AND FOILED”

Hemo recalled that the Turkish state helped several gang groups cross into Rojava in 2014 and had ISIS attack Kobanê after the Serêkaniyê victory became a symbol for Rojava and a defeat for the gangs and their supporters.

Remarking that all their plans from Serêkaniyê to Kobanê have been foiled, Hemo said the following;

“The events we are facing today have a different meaning. It is not totally clear and evident that all the tricks, dirty war and plans of Erdogan and Turkish intelligence MİT have failed and faced a defeat. They have been exposed, everybody saw their true face. Today, everyone all around the world knows that Erdoğan is a partner of terrorists and enemies of people. Now that they have no other scenario left in their hand, and they are desperate, they want to develop a way out in this manner. They openly threaten Afrin.”

“OUR RESPONSE WILL BE HEAVY”

YPG Commander General continued; “We as YPG will strongly respond to whoever attacks and threatens Afrin, Rojava or anywhere else, let it be Erdogan or someone else. This is a legitimate right and our duty which we will duly perform. Just like we foiled Erdogan’s dirty plans and turned them into gains for Kurds and our peoples before, we will do the same now. We will foil Erdogan’s dirty plans against Afrin once again and turn them into a great gain for the peoples of Rojava, Syria, Kurds and even the peoples of Turkey.”

“WE ARE PREPARED FOR A LONG TIME”

asked about the level of their preparations for a probable invasion attempt of the Turkish state, Hemo said they have been prepared for such a case for a long time and added; “We have strong preparations for a probable onslaught on Afrin. Our level of defense is strong. The people of Afrin also know this truth and we trust the people of Afrin that they will develop a mighty resistance to protect their land as they did before.”

“WE WILL SEE THE ATTITUDE OF U.S., RUSSIA AND IRAN”

Asked if the Turkish state has received permission from Russia or the U.S. for an attack on Afrin, Sîpan Hemo said the following; “We have no official information in this regard. Still, if the Turkish state dares to conduct such an invasion aggression on Afrin, this will mean that everyone has responsibility in it. Should Iran, Russia, Syria and even the U.S. not approve this in one way or another, Turkey cannot carry out such an attack because international law will not allow it as states have many laws that prevent this. Should Turkey engage in such an attack, it means Russia, Iran, Syria and the U.S. connive at it. We do not have concrete information at the moment and we are speaking in consideration of situations that may develop. Should the mentioned states fail to manifest a serious attitude in such a case, the Kurdish people will hold all of them responsible.”

“NOBODY SHOULD BARGAIN OVER THE BLOOD OF SYRIAN PEOPLES”

Hemo stressed that the Kurdish people have their plans for probable invasion attempts, and that nobody should bargain over the blood of Syrian peoples. He continued;

“If these states don’t develop a serious attitude against Erdogan in the event of him attacking Afrin, this will manifest the fact that they have entrusted Erdogan the task of attacking the Kurds. We have not seen any serious attitude of these states so far as Erdogan openly threatens Afrin. Erdogan would not be able to do such a thing if these forces did not connive at it. Should this attack be put into practice, it will mean that these forces do support Erdogan. These forces may make plans for their own interests but we do not accept any force bargaining over the blood of Kurds and peoples of Northern Syria, and serving their interests over such an attack.”

“WE WILL CONSIDER THEM TO BE ON THE SAME FRONT IF THEY REMAIN SILENT”

Sîpan Hemo pointed out that they are yet to see a serious attitude in the face of intensified attacks on Afrin over the past one week, adding; “The situation is quite tense and battles are erupting in Afrin for the last one week. Nobody has taken any attitude against this. Even the Syrian state, which claims to be owning these lands, has not made a statement. Nor did Russia speak out against it officially. We will follow this issue very closely and if they do not take a stance, we will come to the conclusion that they are a part of this attack and take sides on that front. Our people will ask them to give an account for bearing responsibility in this.”

CALL TO THE PEOPLES OF SYRIA

Hemo continued with the following call to the peoples of Syria and those working for the Turkish state’s plans on Syria; “It is time to express some things to the peoples of Syria. The Syrian Revolution began in 2011 with very sacred slogans and with the goal of attaining freedom for the peoples. At that time, we expressed our stance clearly said that take sides with the uprisings in Syria. However, some dirty sides like Erdogan wanted to use the revolutionary process that the peoples of Syria initiated to attain pure goals. They played a game in Syria. They first gave hope to the Syrian peoples, then tried to tie them to themselves. Erdogan derailed, stained and darkened the Syrian revolution. He put the Syrian Revolution to the service of Jabhat Al-Nusra and ISIS. He thus lessened the world’s support for Syrian revolution and tied the peoples of Syria to himself.”

“ERDOGAN USED AND SOLD THEM OUT”

Hemo commented that the groups under the Free Syrian Army were meant to fight against the state but Erdogan misdirected them who therewith fought against the Syrian peoples and the Kurds as Erdogan’s guards. According to Hemo, this happened because these groups entered the service of various foreign intelligence services, the Turkish intelligence being in the first place.

“Erdogan used the Syrian revolution and sold it out. Erdogan sold Dara out, bargained in Homs and did the same in Guta. He publicly sold Aleppo out for his own interests. He put the Syrian revolution on sale. The democratic, libertarian, self-sacrificing Arab people and other peoples of Syria should see and know this truth. Erdogan has no concerns like assisting the Syrian revolution. The peoples of Syria should also see this truth for themselves and take a stand by the Kurdish people against this fascist and trader mindset.”

“ALLIANCE CONTINUES IN IDLIB”

Defining the clashes in Idlib as a part of the alliance made in Astane, Hemo said; “There is talk of an alliance made by Turkey, Iran and Russia in Astana. At the moment, many people think that the fight in Idlib is outside of this alliance. This is wrong. On the contrary, the war developed in Idlib is in accordance with this alliance. During Astana talks, it was agreed that Turkey would take some areas and open the way for the regime. The war in Idlib has not gone beyond this framework so far. The Turkish state has sold the opposition out in Idlib, just like it did in Homs, Hame, Aleppo and other places of Syria before.”

“NO BARGAIN OVER IDLIB RIGHT NOW”

Asked about the possibility of a deal for ‘Afrin in return for Idlib’, like the previous deal made between Russia and Turkey ‘for Al-Bab in return for Aleppo’, Hemo made the following comments; “As a matter of fact, such a question does not quite accord the conjuncture. Of course, everyone thinks about their own interests in war. Should such a bargain take place, the Syrian state will not disagree. The policy of Syrian state is essentially based on a denial and annihilation of the Kurds. In other words, they have the same mindset with Erdogan. However, I would like to state that there is no bargain made over Idlib at the moment. There is no plan to fight and take whole of Idlib.”

“LET’S DISCUSS JARABLUS AND BAB INSTEAD OF AFRIN AND MANBIJ”

Pointing out that Erdogan threatened Manbij simultaneously with Afrin, Hemo said; “Erdoğan has one single goal in seeking to attack Afrin and bringing Manbij to agenda. Turkey engages in such acts in order to prevent the advance of Rojava Revolution and gains of the Kurds. Essentially, the Turkish state refers to America as it talks about Manbij. We do not know what kind of promises have been made between these forces. America should be asked about this. To us, it is a basic duty to liberate every inch of Rojava Kurdistan and we will fulfill this duty. We do not discuss about Afrin and Manbij as the lands of Rojava Kurdistan like Jarablus and Bab are under occupation. We should talk about liberating these regions.”

 

“IT WILL BE A HISTORIC WAR AND FINAL”

YPG Commander General Sîpan Hemo ended with the following call to the Kurdish people; “The war to develop is a historic one that will lead to final. This will be the final for Rojava Kurdistan, Kurds in all parts of Kurdistan and thus all the peoples of the Middle East. This is because of the fact that the Turkish President with psychological issues has become a menace for the entire region, for the Kurds, Arabs, Assyrians, Turks and all other peoples. It seems that our fate gives us the task of freeing the region of Erdogan menace just like our YPG/YPJ forces cleared the region of ISIS. The Afrin war will be a war of this kind. We believe that the people of Kurdistan, Arab people and the peoples of Syria, region and the world will take sides with the legitimate struggle of our people in Rojava Kurdistan and manifest a stance against the fascists that attack the Kurdish people in an attempt to deprive them of their rights.”

Is Turkey aligned with al-Qaeda affiliate in Idlib?

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The Astana process is on the verge of collapse, as Turkey and Russia are lining up on opposite sides in Idlib, which may prove to be the decisive battle in the Syria war.

Syria’s military operations in Idlib “are making Turkey so tense that it summoned the ambassadors of Iran and Russia and warned them that the Syrian army’s moves violate the accord reached in Astana, Kazakhstan, which provides for de-escalation zones guaranteed by Iran, Russia and Turkey,” writes Fehim Tastekin.

Moscow has intimated that drones that targeted Russian facilities in Khmeimim and Tartus on Jan. 6 originated from areas controlled by Turkish-backed “moderate” opposition groups. Ankara has denied the charge, arguing that the attacks were the result of terrorist forces gaining a foothold in the region as a result of the Syrian offensive.

Turkey is the main backer of the “moderate” Free Syrian Army (FSA). Power in Idlib also rests with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the jihadi group that is linked with al-Qaeda and includes fellow travelers from Ahrar al-Sham, which lost out in the power struggle with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Both groups see the future of Syria as based on Islamic law, and their rule in Idlib has been characterized by tyranny and torture, as documented by Amnesty International and reported in this column.

In Ankara’s score, the Syrian offensive in Idlib is a violation of the cease-fire agreement and a threat to fragile peace negotiations. “Turkey’s sharp reaction to the uptick in fighting suggests that the agreement struck in Astana, at least as it relates to Idlib, is unraveling,” writes Amberin Zaman. “The immediate trigger appears to be the series of mysterious drone attacks on Russian military bases in Syria’s Latakia province since the start of the year. Moscow apparently believes Turkey did not stick to its side of the bargain either, amid accusations that Turkish forces chose to coexist rather than curb when they moved into Idlib last October as peace monitors.”

As Syrian forces advance, and come into conflict with the FSA and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Turkey finds itself in an uneasy alignment with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, putting it at odds with both Russia and Iran. “The struggle at Idlib is considered by many to be the last act of the war against a jihadi group that is basically controlled by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham under the leadership of al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat Fatah al-Sham,” writes Tastekin. “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham labels the Astana and Geneva peace processes as treason, so the cease-fire Russia formulated excludes Hayat Tahrir al-Sham as well as the Islamic State (IS). From the outset, Russia said the cease-fire covers only ‘moderate’ opposition groups; operations against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and IS will not cease. Turkey, on the other hand — despite its approval of the Astana process — decided to place Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in a different category. Ankara first tried to reshape that organization as it had earlier with Ahrar al-Sham. When that didn’t work, Turkey tried to split Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. When that didn’t work as well, Ankara accepted the facts of life and decided to cooperate.”

The top priority for Turkey is breaking the power of the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) militia, which it considers a terrorist organization, linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Turkey. “If the terrorists in Afrin don’t surrender we will tear them down,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Jan. 13.

“According to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham sources,” Tastekin reports, “there were three conditions to allow Turkey’s army to enter the area without encountering any opposition. One was that the target would be Afrin, where the Kurds have declared autonomy. A second would be that there would be no operation against groups controlling Idlib. The third was that local groups affiliated with Turkey’s Operation Euphrates Shield would not enter the area. … Turkey’s deployment — approved and escorted by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham — was not compatible with Iran’s and Russia’s definition of the de-escalation zone. Turkey was indirectly providing a shield for the organizations already dominating Idlib.”

In addition to divisions among the Astana parties, Turkey’s fractures with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham sparked divisions within the jihadi group itself. “In such a risky atmosphere, Ankara is hoping to hold on to Idlib and the triangle of al-Bab, Jarablus and Azaz that Turkey had secured in Operation Euphrates Shield, to use them as a card against Damascus in a settlement process,” Tastekin concludes. “Such a card would have serious ramifications for the fate of the Syrian president and the future of the Kurds as they seek to build their autonomy in the north. Until he gets the concessions he seeks for these two key issues, Erdogan doesn’t want the Syrian army to approach the Turkish border and face Turkish troops.”

Al-Monitor detailed financial roots of Iranian demonstrations in June 

The Wall Street Journal this week provided an in-depth report on the role of Iran’s unregulated financial and credit institutions in the current demonstrations.

The article reminded us of the outstanding and prescient analysis by Al-Monitor columnist Bijan Khajehpour, who in June 2017 warned of the risks if the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) did not license Iran’s unregulated credit and financial institutions.

Khajehpour wrote that “a sizable segment of the Iranian financial sector has become dominated by mostly unlicensed CFIs [credit and financial institutions]. These are usually affiliated with religious foundations, which claim the financial institutions are an extension of the religious responsibility of their umbrella organizations to extend interest-free loans to applicants. For a long time, the CBI was unable to challenge these entities as they claimed they were not engaging in mainstream banking and financial activities.”

Khajehpour wrote, “One apparent reason why there is a market for such institutions is that licensed public or private banks are not fully equipped to satisfy the demand for personal and business loans in the market, hence pushing many loan applicants to enter into a contract with CFIs. In other words, CFIs have filled a gap that has existed in the country’s money market in the absence of a more developed financial sector. At the same time, the mushrooming of unregulated CFIs and various cooperative funds across the country has led to unhealthy disruptions in the money market.”

He concluded, “Beyond the planned mergers and a potentially more stringent supervision by the CBI over CFIs and banks, the remaining core problem is a culture of corrupt dealings that needs to be addressed. In particular, entities closely affiliated with religious and political power centers have engaged in embezzlement schemes that have undermined the economic and social well-being of the country and further delegitimized the Islamic Republic as a political regime that can manage the complexities of a modern economy.”

AUB dedicates Halim and Aida Daniel Academic and Clinical Center

The American University of Beirut (AUB) this week dedicated the Halim and Aida Daniel Academic and Clinical Center, made possible through a generous gift from the Levant Foundation.

The center is named in honor of the parents of Jamal Daniel, the founder and chairman of Al-Monitor and founder and principal benefactor of the Levant Foundation.

AUB President Fadlo Khuri said, “The inauguration of the Aida and Halim Daniel ACC allows us to elevate our clinical care to a genuinely world-class level, and to launch clinical trials of the highest caliber. This is truly transformative change for the university, and we are grateful to the Daniel family for making this possible.”

Jamal Daniel said, “We are delighted that the Halim and Aida Daniel Academic and Clinical Center will touch the lives of future generations by providing both world-class education and the very best medical care for Lebanon and the Region, with the benefit of this first-class building and facility. The AUB institution is part of our collective history, and we need altogether in the Levant Region to go on reclaiming that history, because only when we see the world as it really is, can we begin to imagine what it could be.”

US to use 30,000 border troops for security in Syria, anger’s Turkey

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The US-led coalition is working with a Syrian Kurdish group to set up a new border force of 30,000 personnel, the coalition said on Jan. 14, a move that has added to Turkey’s anger over US support to the group in Syria.

A senior Turkish official told Reuters the US training of the new “Border Security Force” is the reason that the US charge d’affaires was summoned in Ankara on Jan 10. The official did not elaborate, according to Hurriyet Daily News.

The force, whose inaugural class is currently being trained, will be deployed at the borders of the area controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – made up mostly of People’s Protection Units (YPG)
militants.

In an almost immediate reaction to the American move, Presidential Spokesperson İbrahim Kalın said that Turkey has the right to defend itself against “terror groups” on its own terms and time, and that the U.S. stance on the issue is “unacceptable,” state-run Anadolu Agency reported.

“Turkey will continue to take all necessary precautions aligned with its national interest to preserve its national security,” Kalin added.

US support for the SDF has put enormous strain on ties with NATO ally Turkey, which views the YPG as a terrorist group for its link with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

 

In an email to Reuters, the coalition’s Public Affairs Office confirmed details of the new force reported by The Defense Post. About half the force will be SDF veterans, and recruiting for the other half is underway, the coalition’s Public Affairs Office said.

The force will be deployed along the border with Turkey to the north, the Iraqi border to the southeast, and along the Euphrates River Valley, which broadly acts as the dividing line separating the U.S.-backed SDF and Syrian government forces backed by Iran and Russia.

The coalition said the BSF would operate under SDF command and around 230 individuals were currently undergoing training in its inaugural class.

The Syrian First Lady Asma al-Assad meets with members of Armenian Relief Cross of Syria in Damascus

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The First Lady of Syria Asma al-Assad has met with the members of the executive board of the Damascus branch of the Armenian Relief Cross (ARC) of Syria, Aleppo-based “Gandzasar” paper reported.

According to the report, the participants discussed the need of humanitarian activities, while the executive board members presented the scope of their work. Asma Assad vowed readiness to get engaged in the humanitarian mission of the organization.

To note, the mission of Syrian Armenian Relief Cross is to provide assistance to Syrian Armenians who are victims of the ravaging Syrian civil war.

Thousands crowd the streets of Aleppo to celebrate city’s liberation anniversary

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BEIRUT, LEBANON (4:40 P.M.) – Thousands of people took to the streets of Aleppo, today, to celebrate the first anniversary of the city’s liberation from terrorism.

Civilians commemorated this anniversary by waving the flag of the Syrian Arab Republic, holding up pictures of fallen soldiers, and passing out candy.

In addition to the civilian celebration, the Syrian Army held a service inside Aleppo to commemorate their efforts to retake the city from the jihadist groups.

The photos below were taken during today’s celebrations by local activists: