revolution Archives

Armenia’s People-Power Revolution, Russia, and the Western Bloc

May 3, 2018 By administrator

By David Boyajian
As we write this, massive peaceful civil actions against Armenia’s establishment have continued under the leadership of Nikol Pashinyan, a National Assembly (N.A.) member who is part of the opposition Yelk (Way Out) Alliance. Though widely unpopular Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan has been forced to resign, his Republican Party (RPA) still has a narrow majority (58 of 105) in the N.A. Most observers believe that the RPA members were elected through fraud, bribery, and intimidation.
The RPA’s politicians and oligarchs are also generally blamed for stealing billions of the country’s wealth; violating civil rights; debasing the judiciary and civil service; keeping the talented Armenian Diaspora at arm’s length; and failing to successfully address Armenia’s many problems: corruption, a less-than-robust economy, unemployment, outward migration, and more.
A bright spot: Landlocked Christian Armenia and its brother Artsakh/Karabagh Republic survive, even though blockaded by genocidal Turkey and Turkic/Muslim Azerbaijan who outnumber Armenians by 90 million people. This miracle is due to the tenacity of Armenia’s people and armed forces.
As Armenia is a long-time friend and admirer of our country, we Americans need to understand it.
Why Armenia Matters
The current revolution is home-grown and purely Armenian. Outside powers – whether countries or organizations – neither initiated nor control the revolution. Still, major nations definitely have strong opinions, usually unstated, about the present crisis.
Russia loathes the revolution. Russia wants Armenia to continue to be highly dependent on it for natural gas, the nuclear power plant and energy grid, investments, sophisticated weapons, and the right to travel to Russia to work and sometimes deposit stolen money. Ongoing corruption in Armenia makes it easier for Russia to bribe, intimidate, and blackmail dishonest leaders and oligarchs, represented mainly by the RPA. A Russian base guards Armenia’s border with Turkey.
Why is Russia so intent on controlling its small ally? Because without Armenia, Russia would lose its grip on the Caucasus, Caspian Sea, and probably Central Asia. The US/NATO/EU/Turkey (“Western Bloc”) would then move in. Thus perched along the Russian Bear’s soft underbelly, NATO would slice it open and have his insides for dinner. Thus, Russia needs Armenia far more than it cares to admit.

Georgia was coopted by the Western Bloc years ago. It has invested billions in Georgia, which desires NATO membership as protection against Russia.
Azerbaijan, corrupt and a virtual dictatorship, but flush with oil and gas income, has also expressed interest in joining NATO. Over 27 years, the Western Bloc has invested untold billions in Azerbaijan in such sectors as energy, banking, hotels, aviation, agriculture, and consulting. The Western Bloc has also constructed major oil and gas pipelines from Azerbaijan’s Caspian fields through Georgia and into Turkey and beyond. More such pipelines (to supply Europe) are planned.
Interestingly, Israel receives around 40% of its oil from Azerbaijan and sells it billions in weapons. Major Jewish organizations such as the American Jewish Committee provide Azerbaijan political support while, sadly, a coterie of Jewish writers constantly and unfairly berate Armenia in the US and international media.
The Pan-Turkic Path.

Turkey’s long-standing dream is a pan-Turkic path from Turkey to Azerbaijan, then across the Caspian Sea to the four Central Asian Turkic countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyztan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The Western Bloc has implicitly bought into pan-Turkism in order to exploit the region’s energy deposits and, as explained, perch along Russia’s underbelly.
Georgia – predominantly non-Turkic and Christian – serves as the Western Bloc’s door into the Caucasus. Of course, Georgia remains under Russian pressure. Witness not only Russia’s support for Georgia’s breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but also Georgia’s defeat in the 2008 Russian-Georgian war. All that pressure becomes meaningless, however, were Russia to lose Armenia to the Western Bloc.
Russia would then have no military or operational base in the Caucasus. Moreover, if Armenia got off its dependence on Russian energy and military equipment, Russia would have little ability to pressure Armenia, especially as the two lack a common border.
The Western Bloc’s path to the Caspian Sea (which a NATO fleet would dominate) and Central Asia would be wide open. NATO would probably eventually sit along Iran’s northern border.

Russia could also lose its mainly Muslim North Caucasus regions (Chechnya, Daghestan, etc.) to the Western Bloc.
‘As Armenia goes, so goes the Caucasus, Caspian, and Central Asia’ is a fair statement. For Russia, Armenia is vital – perhaps a matter of life or death. Russia needs Armenia far more than it will admit.
Unfortunately, many Armenians who see Russia as a Christian “big brother” don’t realize that the Russian-Armenian relationship should be a two-way street.
Would Armenia ever join the Western Bloc?
Armenia’s Dilemma
To dissuade it from explicitly joining the Western Bloc, Russia is flattering Azerbaijan as a “strategic partner” (which it really isn’t) and sells it weapons that it will use against Armenia/Artsakh. Russia is also cozying up to Turkey to pull it away from the Western Bloc. It won’t work. Turkey and Azerbaijan (“One nation, two states”) are historically and inherently hostile to Russia. But it makes Armenia nervous nevertheless.
Armenia’s main concern is security. Armenians remember the Genocide of 1915-23 and numerous anti-Armenian massacres committed by Turks against Armenians in the last 150 years. Since 1991, Turkey has threatened several times to attack Armenia. In 1993, Turkey and the Muslim Chechen Speaker of the Russian Duma hatched a plan to invade Armenia while Russia stood aside. Turkey also arms and trains the Azerbaijani army.
And Azeris have long committed massacres against Armenians – as recently as the late 1980s, early 1990s, and currently against Armenians in Artsakh/Karabagh.
Armenians know this history very well. Western Bloc attempts to reassure Armenia that Turkish intentions are benign are understandably treated with derision. With Turkey’s return to its traditional authoritarianism and repression, and its ongoing alliance with jihadists in Syria, even the Western Bloc is reconsidering its long-standing sycophantic treatment of Turkey.

However, Armenians know that Russia may go too far in accommodating Turkey and Azerbaijan and thereby betray Armenia.
After WWI, Turkey used weapons supplied by Bolshevik Russia to exterminate the former’s remaining Armenian citizens and invade the independent Republic of Armenia. Russia also gifted Armenian territory, including Artsakh and Nakhichevan, to Azerbaijan. Russia prevented Armenia from retaking Western Armenia (now eastern Turkey), which Armenia was entitled to according to the Treaty of Sevres (1920) signed by the European powers. Russia could sell out Armenia to Turks and Azeris in similar ways today.
It’s possible, therefore, that Armenia could turn to NATO as a protector. This is risky, however. NATO member Turkey far exceeds Armenia in military weight. Moreover, the West, though historically sympathetic to Christian Armenians for hundreds and even thousands of years, has generally helped Armenians only in humanitarian – not military – ways.
Still, it is possible for Armenia to switch sides if Russia continues to treat Armenia as little more than a pawn. In fact, one pro-Russian writer just called Armenia a “pawn.”
Indeed, Armenia has excellent relations with the Western Bloc (except for Turkey) and recently signed a partnership agreement with the EU. The Western Bloc, of course, silently hopes that the current revolution and possible internal liberalization in Armenia will someday turn it away from Russia.
Shaping its Own Destiny
The RPA, Russia’s favorite pin-up boys, is trying to depict Nikol Pashinyan as anti-Russian and thus a security risk.
However, Pashinyan has firmly stated that Armenia’s alliance with Russia will not change, nor will Armenia drop out of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) and CTSO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) if he becomes Prime Minister.
The RPA claims that Pashinyan is anti-Russian because he once opposed his country’s entry into the EEU and preferred an association agreement with the European Union. The charge is absurd. Until Russia twisted his arm in 2013, even then-President Serzh Sargsyan was set to sign an agreement with the EU.
Armenians appreciate Russia’s help. But they refuse to be taken for granted and betrayed yet again.
Armenia’s populace simply wants Armenia to become stronger and more self-confident in every way – for Armenians’ own sake and so that Russia treats it equitably.
This is neither anti-Russian nor pro-Western Bloc. It’s just the right thing to do.
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The author is an Armenian American freelance journalist. Many of his articles are archived at www.armeniapedia.org/wiki/David_Boyajian.

Russia warns against ‘colour revolution’ in Armenia #ElectricYerevan

July 2, 2015 By administrator

By Timothy Heritage and Hasmik Mkrtchyan

REUTERS/Narek Aleksanyan/PAN Photo

MOSCOW/YEREVAN (Reuters) – In a veiled warning to the West, Russia cautioned on Thursday against any attempt to spark a new “colour revolution” in Armenia by exploiting protests against electricity prices for political ends.

Large crowds of mostly young people have been protesting in the Armenian capital Yerevan for more than 10 days, demanding the government scrap plans to raise the price of electricity for households.

Russia has been wary of unrest on its borders since governments fell in Georgia’s 2003 Rose Revolution, Ukraine’s 2003-04 Orange Revolution and Kiev’s 2014 Maidan protests – events in which it says the West backed the protesters.

“You know how the ‘colour revolutions’, and the Maidan in Ukraine, started,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at a BRICS Youth Summit gathering of young people from Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) in Moscow.

“The current developments in Armenia – there is also a temptation among many to use them to whip up anti-government sentiment although the root of these events is purely economic,” Interfax news agency quoted him as saying.

“It seems useful for someone to go further and develop these processes in a political way.”

Lavrov said that the West in particular was paying increasing attention to the role of young people in shaping national agendas, including through “peaceful protest”.

His comments were the closest any senior Russian official has come to suggesting the West may have or be seeking a role in the protest in Armenia, which hosts a Russian military base, to pull it further out of Moscow’s orbit.

FEAR OF COLOUR REVOLUTION

Thousands of protesters have been gathering every evening in Yerevan though their numbers dwindle during the day. Police tried to disperse them with water cannon early last week but the protest continued and has been peaceful since then.

The protesters have ignored concessions offered by President Serzh Sargsyan, saying they want the price rise of up to 22 percent planned by the distribution company, a subsidiary of Russian firm Inter RAO, to be scrapped entirely.

The protesters have avoided chanting anti-government slogans, saying their demands are limited to the electricity price dispute, though many also complain about alleged corruption in Armenia.

“I think the process of these protests is largely over – or if not over, heading that way,” Armenian political analyst Alexander Iskandaryan told Reuters in Yerevan.

But Russian leaders fear unrest in neighbouring states could encourage protests in Russia and President Vladimir Putin said last year that Moscow “should do everything necessary” to prevent such a “colour revolution” in Russia.

Armenia, in the southern Caucasus, was once part of the Soviet Union and its 3.2 million people have been hit hard by an economic downturn in Russia, its main ally and trading partner.

It is also part of the Eurasian Economic Union, a political and economic bloc set up by Moscow to try to match the economic strength of the European Union, China and the United States.

The Kremlin has said it is up to Armenia’s government and the protesters to resolve the dispute themselves.

(Additional reporting Margarita Antidze in Tbilisi; Editing by Louise Ireland)

‘Greek ‘revolution’ woke up Europeans, spreads like wildfire’

February 17, 2015 By administrator

Public support for Greece across Europe is predictable as other countries are suffering just as much, Leonidas Chrysanthopoulos, a former Greek ambassador, told RT. It’s a message to EU leaders who have been distant from people they are supposed to serve.

RT: Are you surprised by the show of public support for Greece in many parts of Europe?

Leonidas Chrysanthopoulos: No, it was expected actually, because the other countries are suffering just as bad as we are particularly Portugal and Spain. So once we started this, let’s put it ‘revolution,’ and we are waking up the European people, it caught like wildfire. So this is a good solid support of the European people and I hope that this message is getting across to the leaders of the EU who have been far away from the people who they are supposed to serve all these years.

RT: Do you see a growing disconnect between Brussels-led austerity policies, and public opinion in EU nations?

LC:…It is their interest that is at stake, because if they continue this intransigence and this hard-line, then Greece can also play hard-line and we would just refuse to cooperate. And this of course might lead to a possible departure of Greece from the eurozone with all the negative consequences that it will have for Europe more than it would have for Greece. For Greece it will have in the long-term beneficial results.

RT: Are you optimistic that a compromise can be reached at Monday’s meeting?

LC: I don’t think there are many chances for a compromise. What I presume might come out of the meeting is a sort of a text that nobody understands that will satisfy the EU, but might have no practical results because the Greek government is no way going back on what it promised to the Greek people. And I read in today’s newspapers for example that most of the measures that have been taken by the previous regime are now being changed. For example, a draft law is going to [be passed] in the Parliament next week for the 13th [month-Ed.] salary for the pensioners. Also there is going to be 12,000 euro [annual salary- Ed.]for tax that will be included as a tax limit. And also the extreme tax that was put on property is going to be abolished also.

RT: If Greece does not receive the bridge loan it is asking for – what are the alternatives for the government?

LC: Essentially what will happen…is there will be a denunciation on the basis of international law of the loan agreement. And if you denounce the loan agreement, not unilaterally, on the basis of international law, [the Vienna Convention on the law of treaties], which in the articles 48 to 51 4: 50 anticipated cases where international agreement is null and void. You do that, you keep the €26 billion that they are asking and if you continue your recovery that way plus you nationalize the Bank of Greece then also you have funds. So this will get us through the year, this is one way of financing ourselves during that interim period if it goes as bad as that.

Political not financial consequences scare EU

Pro-government protesters in Athens’ Syntagma Square ahead of the eurozone finance ministers’ meeting in Brussels demanded that no more concessions are made, noted Aris Chatzistefanou, a journalist and filmmaker.

“The same message that PM Mr. Tsipras had Friday night when there was an emergency Cabinet meeting with many left-wing ministers saying that we have already made enough concessions in these negotiations and we should keep to our positions otherwise it will be seen as a total betrayal of what we said to the electorate before the election. When they talk about concessions, it’s mainly three things: that they don’t talk any more about cancelling the debt which was one of the promises that this party made to the electorate. The second is they have agreed to accept 70 percent of the memorandum that is the austerity package imposed in Greece by the IMF and ECB and the European Commission. And the third is that we should have a primary surplus. That practically means a kind of continuation of austerity…”

“…This year only we have to repay something around €22 billion and almost €6-7 billion of this amount is the interest that we have to repay. So by making at least a memorandum in repaying the debt there is enough money to keep the economy staying alive for a few more months until the solution is found.Don’t forget that the same policy was applied even in Russia, in Argentina, Iceland, Ecuador and there was always a positive outcome for the economy. On the other hand, don’t forget that apart from the Western financial centers that are threatening Greece with stopping the liquidity of the banking sector there are some other financial centers that can be trusted,” Chatzistefanou said.

The main concern for Berlin now, he observed, is the political consequences of the Greek bailout talks in Brussels.

“There might be a domino effect if people in other European countries realize that this austerity imposed by Brussels and Berlin is not the only way out of the crisis… I think this is a big problem for Berlin at the moment. They are not afraid of the financial consequences. Don’t forget that Greece is a very small economy, 2 percent of the eurozone. They are afraid of the political consequences,” Chatzistefanou told RT.

Azerbaijan ‘revolution’ fear

December 29, 2014 By administrator

Opposition radio station in Azerbaijan ‘Azadliq Following the sealing of the office in Baku 12 radio employees were detained. Aliyev supporters of increased pressure on the media in the country, activists and civil society organizations ‘revolution’ is spreading news that it is in preparation.

Financially supported by the US Radio Free Europe “Radio Azadliq known as’ the raid on the offices of Azerbaijan takes repercussions. sealed radio last Friday’s 12 employees were detained and interrogated for 12 hours. The host of the daily radio broadcast program Kamran Mahmudov reportedly detained at his home.

All radio workers detained were released, but it is estimated that in the coming days the statement called for questioning more employees.

A long time that the Government’s target Radio Azadliq terrestrial broadcast was halted in 2009. Radio has been broadcasting on the internet since then.

Out by the David Herszenhorn signature in the New York Times in an article is by Aliyev fans overseas in countries supported NGOs ‘Arab Spring in or may be revolutionary preparations in Baku as in Ukraine’ is doing the review.

Aliyev government blames the grounds of their cooperation with Armenia örgtü of civil society.

New Azerbaijan Party deputy Siyavuş Novrusov, in a statement to a newspaper ‘Armenian lobby working for foreign intelligence services and the need to search every place,’ he said.