A graph statistically depicting the views of respondents in a Pew poll on whether Erdogan is a suitable individual for leading the country

Only 39% of Turks have a favorable view of Turkish Presiden Recep Tayyip Erdogan and over half (51%) of the Turkish people hold a negative view of the president, the results of a recent poll show.

The results of the poll, which was conducted by Pew Research Center from April to May and released on October 15, show that Erdogan’s popularity is falling.

This comes as, last year, 51% of Turks had a positive view of Erdogan; and in 2013, he had the support of 62% of the people.

The findings of the survey indicate that Erdogan’s supporters were mainly Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) followers (87% favorable), Turks aged 50 and older (54%), lower-educated Turks (53%) and Muslim Turks who pray 5 times per day or more (71%).

This comes as a survey, conducted by pollster Gezici between October 3 and 4, indicated that the AKP is unlikely to win enough votes needed to form a single-party government in the country’s upcoming snap elections. The survey of 4,864 people, the results of which were released on October 15, showed that public support for the AKP, founded by Erdogan, currently stands at 40.8 percent.

The figure shows little change compared to the 40.9 support percent the party received in the elections on June 7, when it failed to form a government after 13 years of unrivaled ruling. Two months later, November 1 was set as the date for the snap votes in the wake of a failure in coalition talks between the AKP and main opposition factions.

Strong leader or strong democracy

The latest Pew poll also studied Turkish people’s preference between a strong leader or a strong democracy.

The results revealed that as much as 56 % of the participants in the study favored a democratic form of government and 36 % percent of them believed that Turkey should have a strong leader.

Iraqi, Syrian refugees

The poll also surveyed Turkish people’s view on the inflow of Iraqi and Syrian refugees into Turkey.

It was discovered that a vast majority of Turks (80 %) opposed the entry of refugees from the neighboring countries into Turkey and only 8 % of the participants in the poll favored the inflow of the refugees.

The violence caused by the Takfiri Daesh terrorist group in Iraq and Syria, which is backed by certain western and regional countries, including Saudi Arabia and Turkey, has forced millions of people in the two crisis-hit countries to leave their homeland.

Be prepare and be aware soon the Banks will charge you for parking your money at the bank instead of giving you interest. (Emphasis mine)

Two ghosts are haunting the eurozone: low inflation and a strong euro. The European Central Bank (ECB) has taken aim at both by punishing banks that park money with the ECB.

“We’re very aware of the fact that an extensive period of low inflation carries risks,” ECB president Mario Draghi told international central bankers at a meeting in Portugal last week. He is referring to the risk of deflation, the vicious circle of declining prices, yielding company profits, reduced investment, higher unemployment and ultimately an intensified recession. Once caught in this vicious circle it is hard to find the exit – the example of Japan serves as a warning to all.

Draghi does not see any risk of broad-scale deflation for the time being – an assessment backed by the improving economies in crisis-ridden southern Europe. But the strong euro is threatening to neutralize the enhanced competitiveness gained by the wage cuts in these quarters. Experts say the common currency is overvalued by about ten percent. This is mainly due to “the significant capital inflows that want to profit from an end of the crisis,” says Martin Huefner, Chief Economist at Assenagon in his weekly commentary.

Interest rate reduction already priced in

It was an open secret that the interest rates are set to fall,” says Jens-Oliver Niklasch, Chief Economist with Baden-Wuerttemberg’s state bank LBBW. Rates were cut for the eurozone from 0.25 percent to 0.15 or 0.10 percent. As a rule such interest rate cuts trigger a devaluation of the currency. In this case the effect will probably be limited. What difference does 0.1 percent make after all? And secondly: “An interest rate reduction is already priced in,” Niklasch told Deutsche Welle.

But the ECB has done more. The European monetary watchdogs are going to try out a new tool: the negative interest rate. This means that a commercial bank is obliged to pay a penalty rate if they park money with the ECB. The ECB is hoping to achieve two targets with this measure, says LBBW analyst Niklasch: “The first is rather simple: that the euro is weakened on currency markets; the second is that the vast liquidity offered by the ECB finally reaches the private sector.”

More loans for businesses

In other words: The banks should finally dish out more loans to companies. This would generate more investment, more growth and ultimately higher inflation rates. If the euro softens at the same time, the ECB have killed two birds with one stone. Experts are skeptical as to whether this plan will work. “The granting of loans by commercial banks actually hinges more on demand than supply,” says Jens-Oliver Niklasch.

This means: The debt crisis and recession dampened demand for loans, especially in southern Europe. The ECB can not force banks to provide loans to the private sector. Banks will probably look for alternatives to avoid the penalty rates, such as government bonds of debtor countries in the eurozone. These still have good returns and are guaranteed by the ECB. However, this means more money will go to southern Europe and it defeats the object of devaluing the euro.

Sowing the seed for the next crisis?

So what needs to be done? Nothing, says Roland Vaubel, economist at the University of Mannheim: “The recession is practically over. We have positive growth for the entire eurozone. We have solid monetary growth.” So he sees no need to soften monetary policy.

But what about low inflation? Is he not worried at all about that? No, says Vaubel: “Because this is the result of the monetary policy dating back two to three years. This is a lagging indicator. The ECB is making a mistake if they’re looking at the current inflation rate.”

They should keep their eyes on monetary growth and demand, both of which were positive thanks to the improving business climate. He says further relaxation of the monetary policy does not make sense and would prepare the ground for the next crisis: “We’re running the risk that we fail to drop this hyper-expansive monetary policy fast enough when the economy makes a significant leap and inflation rates soar. I fear that this so-called exit won’t work then.”

Source: DW.DE

Turkey: Most Turks hold negative view of Erdogan: Poll

EU: Negative interest rates – the ECB’s new ‘big bazooka’