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Trump claims Germany ‘totally controlled’ by Russia, airs list of grievances

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By S.A. Miller – The Washington Times – Updated: 8:10 a.m. on Wednesday, July 11, 2018

Opening the NATO summit in Brussels with a bang Wednesday, President Trump blasted Germany for a pipeline project that he said made Germany “totally controlled by Russia.”

“I think it’s very sad when Germany makes a massive oil and gas deal with Russia where we’re supposed to be guarding against Russia,” Mr. Trump said at a breakfast with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg.

Mr. Trump said Germany was “captive to Russia” and urged NATO to look into the issue.

“The former chancellor of Germany is head of the pipeline company that’s supplying the gas,” Mr. Trump said. “You tell me, is that appropriate? I’ve been complaining about this from the time I got here.”

The president was calling out the planned Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia to Germany’s northeastern Baltic coast, which would bypass Eastern European nations and double the amount of gas that Russia can pipe directly to Germany.

The pipeline already has opponents among some NATO nations.

“Very bad thing for NATO,” Mr. Trump said. “I think we have to talk to Germany about it.”

Mr. Trump’s charges flipped the narrative about Russia, which previously centered on his praise of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Mr. Trump’s summit next with with Mr. Putin in Helsinki, Finland, has been criticized for giving Moscow and NATO equal billing.

Mr. Trump also criticized Germany for failing to spend the agreed upon 2 percent of GDP on NATO defense.

 

NATO General Surprised By Lack Of ‘Visible Russian Interference’ In Armenia Crisis

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NATO Cannot Ignore Russia's Military Capabilities, Top General Says

NATO Cannot Ignore Russia’s Military Capabilities, Top General Says

PRAGUE — A NATO general says he’s surprised that Russia is not more openly involved in Armenia’s recent tumultuous events that led to longtime leader Serzh Sarkisian being pushed from power.

General Petr Pavel, the chairman of NATO’s Military Committee, told RFE/RL on May 3 that he was surprised at the lack of Russian “interference” because of the close ties between Moscow and Yerevan and because of Russia’s “significant” military presence in Armenia.

“Armenia is one of the countries which Russia sees as their near neighborhood and their justified sphere of influence,” said Pavel, the third-highest-ranking NATO official behind Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and Supreme Allied Commander Curtis Scaparrotti.

“Russia identified so-called ‘colored revolutions’ as one of [its] major security challenges,” Pavel said. “To some extent I am surprised there is not so much visible Russian interference, but I believe there is a lot going on beneath the surface.”

Pavel noted that NATO has an Individual Partnership Action Plan with Armenia. But he said that “obviously, if a new government is in favor of more links with NATO, we are ready for it.”

The Armenian parliament is scheduled to vote on opposition leader Nikol Pashinian’s candidacy for prime minister on May 8.

Pashinian led nationwide protests that have forced Sarkisian to give up power, and that has pressured his ruling Republican Party. The events are reminiscent of so-called “colored revolutions” from 2003 to 2005 in Georgia and Ukraine.

Pashinian has said there will be no geopolitical changes as a result of the upheaval.

Turkish-Russian missile deal puts NATO on edge

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Turkish-Russian missile

Turkish-Russian missile

Ankara has inked a defense deal with Moscow that could further derail ties with its NATO allies. How will they react? And could the deal still be reversed? Teri Schultz reports from Brussels.

As relations continue to fray over the clashes between Turkey and American-backed Kurdish forces in the northwestern Syrian region of Afrin, Ankara’s ties with Moscow are strengthening, exacerbating the tension with Washington.

Despite months of warnings from NATO allies both publicly and privately, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has finalized his decision to upgrade his country’s air defense with a$2.5 billion (€2.03 billion)-investment in a Russian surface-to-air missile system, the S-400 “Triumf.”

It’s not clear whether the Turkey-Russian sale is past the point of no return. Even NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg wouldn’t hazard a guess ahead of this week’s defense ministers’ meeting. He said Turkey needs to clarify the status of the contract.

Stoltenberg said that Ankara is also discussing missile-defense cooperation with the Franco-Italian EUROSAM consortium that came in second to Russia’s bid. The US defense giant Raytheon also vied for the contract.

NATO diplomats speaking off the record due to the sensitivity of the subject said they believe the decision can still be reversed. There’s a precedent for that: In 2013 Turkey announced it would choose China’s Precision Machinery to supply its its first long-range air and anti-missile program. NATO allies protested vociferously and Ankara scrapped the program.

‘Not a bluff’

But no one should expect the same outcome this time, warned Tulin Daloglu, publisher and chief editor of the online Turkish current affairs magazine Halimiz.com. “Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400s is not a bluff,” she told DW. “It is a shout out to Washington that it is crossing a red line” with its longstanding support to Kurdish groups that Ankara views as terrorist organizations, such as the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) militia.

Officials speaking critically of the Turkish move are always careful to add that military purchases are any government’s unilateral decision. Nonetheless, the displeasure is evident. “The principal of sovereignty obviously exists in acquisition of defense equipment,” General Petr Pavel, chairman of NATO’s Military Committee, said last fall, “but the same way that nations are sovereign in making their decision, they are also sovereign in facing the consequences of that decision.” NATO officials were quick to explain Pavel wasn’t threatening retaliation, but rather underlining that the Russian “Triumf” would be forced to stand alone in Turkey, as it could never be integrated into NATO’s system.

Russian system best plugs ‘vulnerability’

“The objective here is not to push the envelope or to create problems for NATO itself — Turkey has other objectives,” explained Sinan Ulgen, chairman of the Istanbul-based think tank, the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies and a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe. “The purchase of the S-400 came from a perceived vulnerability in Turkey’s air defenses, which is real, and the Russian offer was the best one on the table in terms of its delivery and ability to address that gap. But of course this is creating problems.”

Ulgen’s Carnegie colleague Marc Pierini described to DW more specifically what some of those problems will be on on the practical side. He pointed out the Turkish Air Force will not know how to operate the S-400s, so they will need Russian “instructors”, who Pierini envisions “camping out in Turkish Air Force headquarters,” where of course there is plenty of NATO-related information.

That’s not all. “In any missile interceptor you have something equivalent to the identification ‘friend or foe,'” Pierini explained, “so you have to connect your airplanes to these systems so that they’re not going to be shot down. So what do you do? Give access to the F-16 and F-35 operators in the Turkish Air Force to the Russians’ software in these missiles? And vice versa, do you give Russian instructors access to software in the Turkish Air Force airplanes?”

Turkey is showing its belligerent face on the world stage

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By Ludér Tavit Sahagian,

The revealing of Turkey’s longstanding authoritarian and belligerent face is greatly appreciated ( “NATO is headed for a very messy break-up,” Stephen Kinzer, Ideas, Nov. 12).

Turkey has always been unworthy of allied relations with Western nations and merits no place in Euro-Atlantic organizations, where member states are under equal commitments and obligations and may not abandon common values. The country’s aggressive form of nationalism, dismal genocidal and human-rights record, meddling in European elections, violent attacks on peaceful American protesters, support for religious extremism, incursions into Syria and Iraq to target Christians and Kurds, and illegal occupation of Northern Cyprus and Western Armenia are central testaments to these facts.

The Soviet-led Warsaw Pact is history, and the Cold War should be long over. A world without the North Atlantic Treaty Organization would certainly reduce arms buildups and military flareups globally and ensure a more peaceful and prosperous world order — one in which multilateral international organizations like the United Nations are given the opportunity to function optimally.

Alon Ben-Meir: Time To Kick Turkey Out Of NATO

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By Alon Ben-Meir,
The egregious violation of freedom of the press in Turkey has reached a mammoth proportion that places Turkey among the most oppressive nations for journalists. It is sadder than sad that the US and the EU, who champion free press as one of the main pillars of democracy, have largely left Turkey’s President Erdogan free to crush not only free press, but also freedom of speech and peaceful demonstrations.
The irony here is that Turkey, as a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), has violated every provision of NATO’s founding treaty regarding human rights. Indeed, each member state is required to fully adhere to “…safeguard[ing] the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their peoples, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law.” To be sure, Erdogan has given himself license to mock these principles without any noteworthy rebuke from other NATO members.
It is time to consider kicking Turkey out of NATO, regardless of how difficult and complicated this far-reaching measure may be. Turkey has long since forsaken Western values while becoming an increasingly zealous Islamic state. Indeed, contrary to Erdogan’s manipulative narrative about Turkey’s presumed democracy, the country under his watch is governed by an authoritarian regime that has no place among Western democracies.
The violation of free press and the systematic undermining of human rights demands that the West reevaluate its relationship with Turkey and stop searching for excuses to justify its self-conceit about Erdogan’s outrageous behavior. Here is a dossier of Erdogan’s gross violations of freedom of the press and his suppression of democratic values:
Turkey today has become the global leader of incarcerated journalists. The Stockholm Center for Freedom, a Sweden-based advocacy agency, reports that as of July 2017 the Turkish government has arrested 228 journalists and convicted an additional twenty-five. Reporters Without Borders’ 2017 World Press Freedom Index ranks Turkey 155 out of 180 countries.
President Erdogan has all but silenced any media outlets that have attempted any scrutiny of his policies, particularly his crackdown on anyone whom he perceives to be an enemy. As such, he has systematically denied the Turkish public any unbiased source of information from domestic newspapers, radio, and television.
He uses the criminal justice system to prosecute journalists on false charges of terrorism, insulting the president, or fabricated crimes against the state. Many journalists have been charged and convicted for reporting that the government is supplying weapons to the Islamic State (ISIS), when in fact the government did just that, and turned a blind eye to ISIS’ oil being smuggled into the country.
Erdogan regularly exerts tremendous pressure on various media organizations to dismiss journalists who write anything critical of the government, such as those who worked for the newspaper Cumhuriyet. Investigative journalism is viewed as treason against the state, which has de facto choked off any effort by journalists to investigate any wrongdoing by officials, especially in the rampant number of corruption cases that included several ministers and his own son.
He took over or closed down private media companies, including Feza Publications (parent company of Zaman and Cihan), and in many cases assigned trustees to media organizations, which is absolutely illegal and against Turkey’s own constitution, which he labored so hard to pass.
Many of Turkey’s business tycoons, who have extensive media holdings, are given major inner-city construction projects in exchange for keeping their reporters in check and forbidding them from publishing critical commentary about the government.
He regularly targets journalists and media outlets associated with the Gülen movement, which the government accuses of being a terrorist organization. Human Rights Watch reported that he closed nearly 170 media organizations and publishing outlets under the state emergency law that was enacted following the failed military coup in July 2016, severely undermining every aspect of human rights and the rule of law.
Erdogan targeted Kurdish journalists in particular and pro-Kurdish political activists who have expressed support for Kurdish rights, including prominent academics and mayors, accusing them of having links to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). In fact, none of the accused committed any wrongdoing—their arrests were arbitrary and lacked any semblance of legitimacy.
He stifled not only freedom of the press, but free speech in general. According to the Twitter Transparency Report, Erdogan demanded that Twitter remove any offending posts. Of the 33,593 Twitter accounts reported in 2016, over 23,000 were reported by the Turkish government, more than all other countries put together.
Fearing retribution from the police, even private news outlets no longer dare to report on anything which is not to the liking of the government—including demonstrations or clashes related to the Kurdish problem. Self-censorship by journalists has become a common practice, while quietening colleagues who try to protect the basic ethics of journalism.
Given that public demonstration is another form of free expression, Erdogan ensures that no demonstration can take place without a specific permit. In 2015, a bill was passed allowing the police to use excessive force to quell demonstrations and incarcerate those who participate in unauthorized demonstrations for up to 48 hours, presumably to maintain public order. Protesters wearing full or even partial masks could face up to five years in prison, especially if they are accused of disseminating propaganda for terrorist organizations.
Journalists are attacked for merely advocating for the resumption of peace talks with the PKK, or if they refer to PKK members as militants rather than terrorists. The Erdogan government has put freedom of the press under siege, and is bent on destroying journalism completely.
Erdogan’s crackdown on press freedom, however, is not limited to Turkish journalists and reporters; it has expanded beyond Turkey’s borders. As a case in point, Turkish consular officials in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, asked Turks in the country to report on any insult directed against Erdogan. Moreover, Turkey has targeted many foreign journalists, among them a French photojournalist who was arrested and expelled, and another reporter for a German television station who was denied entry into the country.
Turkish state officials have accused European and Western media organizations of being hypocritical in their representation of the media in Turkey, as Western states have their own standards of censorship on sensitive matters related to national security.
Although on a couple of occasions the European Union issued scathing reports about Turkey’s serious backsliding on press freedom, the EU and the US (along with the Council of Europe and the UN Human Rights Council) have unfortunately taken no punitive measures to stop Erdogan’s rampage against free press.
Sadly, the European community and the US are betraying their democratic values. They continue to treat Erdogan with kid gloves because he is presumably an important player against ISIS, and because he is allowing the US and its allies to use Turkey’s Incirlik Air Base to launch air attacks against ISIS.
To be sure, Erdogan has been successful in blackmailing the West. He skillfully uses his leverage to control the flow of Syrian refugees to Europe and cement Turkey’s geostrategic position as the hub for the transfer of oil and gas to Europe.
Turkey under Erdogan is not only violating freedom of the press, individual liberties, and the public’s right for peaceful demonstration; every stratum of Tukey’s governing authorities—including the police, the judiciary, the bureaucracy and the political echelon of the AK Party—is corrupt to the core and irredeemable.
NATO cannot allow one of its member states to erode the alliance from within and still expect it to be a viable force that can maintain and protect European security and its moral values.
No country led by a dictator that attacks US allies—such as the Kurds in Syria—should remain a member of NATO, and no country that sold weapons to ISIS should be a member of NATO.
No country that cozies up to and buys weapons from America’s enemy—Russia—should continue to be a member of NATO, and no country which is being transformed into an extremist Islamic state by a zealous leader should maintain its place as a member of NATO.
And no country that has violated every tenet of democracy, engages in gross human rights abuses, and wreaks havoc on its population deserves to stay in the NATO alliance.
Turkey under Erdogan is no longer a reliable nor trustworthy partner, and has become a liability rather than a viable and constructive member of the organization, which could severely impact NATO’s cohesiveness, effectiveness, and preparedness to meet any threat to European security.
For this reason, NATO should warn Erdogan that unless he reverses his policies and reinstitutes basic democratic principles, especially human rights and freedom of the press, Turkey will be kicked out of NATO.
Certainly, I am not holding my breath that NATO will act on this anytime soon, but I feel very strongly that a discussion on this critical issue within NATO should take place.

 

Armenia to join NATO military drills in Georgia

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Armenia will take part in NATO military exercises in Georgia later this year.

The annual multinational drills, entitled Georgia-NATO Agile Spirit 2017, are expected bring together troops from US, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania, as well as Georgia.

The initiative is aimed at fostering military cooperation among the NATO member states and partners.

The scheduled timeframe of the event is from 31 August to 12 September.

‘Dissolution of NATO, military alliance with Russia’: German Left leader echoes Trump

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Dissolve NATOgermany, A military security system, which would include Russia, should be set up instead of NATO, Sahra Wagenknecht, leader of the German Left party said in an interview, echoing Trump’s recent statements on NATO.

“NATO must be dissolved and replaced by a collective security system including Russia,” Wagenknecht told Germany’s Funke media group on Tuesday. NATO has received its fair share of criticism in the German media following US President-elect Donald Trump’s recent interview published by Bild, in which he called NATO an “obsolete” organization.

“I said a long time ago that NATO had problems. Number one it was obsolete, because it was designed many, many years ago,” Trump said on Sunday.

“We’re supposed to protect countries. But a lot of these countries aren’t paying what they’re supposed to be paying, which I think is very unfair to the United States.”

These words were supported by Wagenknecht, who added that his comments “mercilessly reveal the mistakes and failures of the [German] federal government.”

The interview has not gone unnoticed, as a spokesperson of German Chancellor Angela Merkel commented that it was “read with interest” at the Chancellor’s office.

Meanwhile, NATO officials were rather “irritated” by Trump’s statements, according to German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who talked to reporters after a meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. Steinmeier said, however, that NATO is confident that the incoming US administration would keep to their country’s commitments to the alliance.

Alexander Graf Lambsdorff, vice president of the European parliament and member of the German party FDP, told Funke that Trump’s statements “remain vague and not so sound.”

The Left party is the largest opposition group in the German parliament, and has previously called for closer ties with Russia.

The comments come amid the amassing of US troops, tanks, and military equipment in Europe near Russia’s borders as part of a NATO operation called Atlantic Resolve. Following military exercises within the framework of the operation, the soldiers will be distributed among Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, and the Baltic countries, with a headquarters unit in Germany.

NATO members reject Turkey’s offer to host next summit

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no nato summit in Turkeyno nato,summit, turkeyNATO member states have rejected Turkey’s offer for the second time in a row. The offer by Turkey to host 2018 NATO summit did not receive approval by the crucial members of the alliance.

As Panorama.am was informed from Turkish media, during the NATO summit in Brussels, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan proposed to hold the next summit in Istanbul; however Germany and France opposed the offer.

Several other NATO member states, namely Canada, the Netherlands and Denmark also did not approve this proposal. Turkey made such an offer during the 2016 NATO summit in Warsaw as well, which also received opposition.

 

Source Panorama.am

Falling Skies: Christian Serbian Children Recall the Horror of 1999 NATO, Turkey, Saudi Islamization of the Yugoslavia Bombing

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Eighteen years after the beginning of NATO’s aerial bombardment of Yugoslavia, Serbian children who were born during that troubled time still bear the emotional scars left by war.

In 1999, the United States and its NATO allies utilized the air power of the formerly defensive organization to conduct air strikes in support of an internal Yugoslav conflict between Belgrade and the breakaway region of Kosovo. Their actions took a toll on the lives of the young children of that generation, leaving scars they still wear today.

Andjela S. was born in Pec, a city located in the Serbian province of Kosovo and the former seat of the Serbian Orthodox Church. After the events of the 1999, however, all of the city’s Serbian residents had to abandon their homes and flee for their lives. According to Andjela, a great injustice was done to Serbia back then, when Western propaganda portrayed Serbians as the chief culprits behind the war.

“I know they blamed us for allegedly trying to exile all Albanians from Kosovo. That’s how it was portrayed, and then the airstrikes began. And even though they (NATO) said that they’re only going to bomb military targets, they didn’t care about the civilians who were dying and couldn’t understand what was going on,” Andjela told Sputnik.

She told how her parents and relatives were hiding in the basement while NATO warplanes were bombing the city.

“My grandfather was already old and sick back then. Due to all that colossal stress he ended up having a stroke,” the girl added.

According to Gavrilo M., the first thing that comes to his mind is the downing of a US F-177 stealth aircraft, which remains on display to this day near Belgrade’s airport.

“It proves that even high tech weapons can be defeated by military tactics and technology,” he said.

To him, the events of 1999 became “the end of the Yugoslavia’s break-up and the finale of one global geostrategic game that lasted two centuries.”

“My father wasn’t fighting, but he was keeping watch at the faculty building where he was working. They told me that mother was terrified by the airstrikes, that she panicked a lot; most of the time she was just lying down. But I do know that once when the sirens started wailing she hid under a table,” he said.

Uros C. was born in Lipljan, a city in the Serbian province of Kosovo, and lived there until 2004. While he was growing up, the boy learned from his parents about the Western media “orchestrating” the humanitarian disaster in Kosovo.

“My father was in the army when the airstrikes began. Mother told me that she was shocked, that none of them knew what was going on and that they were scared. Sometimes the airstrikes made night look like day, just how they show it in some movies. They told me that I was the only ray of light amid the darkness,” Uros said.

He lived in Kosovo until he turned six, but Uros still remembers buildings riddled with bullets, bomb craters and areas contaminated by the depleted uranium weapons used by NATO. And when the NATO-led KFOR mission came to Kosovo, the Serbians living there forgot what ‘the freedom of movement means’.

“I remember that I could only go to kindergarten and back home. Walking anywhere else was dangerous,” Uros recalls.

Uros’ family fled Lipljan on March 11, 2004, just a few days prior to a wave of anti-Serbian pogroms that swept across the city.

And while Serbian schools do not teach students much about the NATO airborne campaign, Uros believes that there’s no need to spend much time teaching about the events so recent.

“The conflict continues, and if the schools were teaching only the Serbian version of those events, that would’ve had a negative impact on the situation. But we will always regard these events as aggression, while the foreign aggressor will regard them as merely gaining access to Kosovo’s mineral resources, which is perfectly legitimate in the aggressor’s eyes,” Uros said.

Andjela S. also added that the paragraphs in history textbooks describing those events appear “too censored” and usually look like this: a few sentences from official releases, and then a few sentences describing the author’s point of view.

“Yes, they also contain fragments that describe our view of those events, but essentially the textbooks stick to what the US designated as the official opinion,” Andjela explained.

However, Biljana K., history teacher at the First Belgrade Gymnasium, told Sputnik that the school program adopts an unbiased approach to that particular time period, and that the Serbian society and expert community appear divided on those events.

“There are those who would say that it was good, and that the airstrikes marked the beginning of the end of Milosevic’s reign. But there are also those who would say that we were innocent, and that the whole world conspired against us for reasons unknown. The truth is somewhere in between, and it’s definitely not black-and-white,” she said.

Source: https://sputniknews.com/europe/201703241051935691-yugoslavia-nato-airstrikes-legacy/

“If NATO were being established today, Turkey would not be eligible to join”

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By Aline Ozinian

We talked to David L. Phillips, the Director of the Program on Peace-building and Rights at Columbia University’s Institute for the Study of Human Rights, about the developments around the triangle of Turkey-US-Middle East by way of his recent book “An Uncertain Ally: Turkey under Erdogan’s Dictatorship”.

David L. Phillips is the Director of the Program on Peace-building and Rights at Columbia University’s Institute for the Study of Human Rights. Phillips has served as Foreign Affairs Expert and Senior Adviser to the US Department of State during the administrations of Presidents Clinton, Bush, and Obama. Writing for Huffington Post about Kurdish question, Turkish politics and fighting ISIS, Philips worked as an adviser in the internationally known think-tank Atlantic Council and as an adviser to the White House concerning Middle East Balkans. In the past, he issued reports for AKP government for the solution of Kurdish question.

We interviewed Phillips to discuss Turkey’s current political situation and foreign policy approach, the US-Turkey relations under Trump administration, US security interests regarding Kurdish unity and the future of the Artsakh (Karabakh) conflict and Turkey-Armenia relations. 

What are your thoughts regarding today’s Turkey? How would you explain what is happening in Turkey right now? 

If NATO were being established today, Turkey would not be eligible to join.  President Tayyip Erdogan has revealed his true face as an Islamist who is anti-American, anti-European and who undermines NATO. NATO is more than a security alliance. It is a coalition of countries with shared values. More journalists are jailed today in Turkey than any other country. Recent events during which legitimately-elected members of the parliament were arrested, denied free speech, and deprived of other rights are indicators of Turkey’s departure from the democratic mainstream. Using ministers for partisan political lobbying is not welcome in Europe. 

What was the motivation for the changes inside the AKP (after 2007)?  

Erdogan used his electoral mandate from July 22, 2007 to consolidate his power, attack the judiciary and target Turkey’s secular elite. The election put Turkey on the path to the dictatorship that it is today.

How would you describe the relations between US-Turkey today?  What are your predictions about future relations?

US-Turkey relations are at a low point. Erdoğan demands that the US extradites Fethullah Gülen. This is a legal, not a political decision. Also, Turkey demands that the US abandons the Syrian Kurds who are proven fighters against ISIS. The Pentagon wants to continue US security cooperation with the Kurds over Erdoğan’s strident objections.

What kind of political changes should we expect from the Trump administration regarding Turkey?

It’s too soon to tell. When Trump and Erdoğan talked on February 8, they avoided contentious issues like Trump’s Muslim travel ban and Turkey’s crackdown after the coup. Vice President Mike Pence heralded a “new era” in US-Turkish relations. The rhetoric has changed, but substantive differences still exist. 

Why has Turkey become “An Uncertain Ally” for America? Is Turkey’s Kurdish policy the only reason?

Turkey’s rapprochement with Russia raises concerns about its response in the event that Russia attacks Ukraine, Poland or the Baltic States. About 140,000 Turks have been arrested or dismissed after the failed coup of July 15, which gutted the Turkish Armed Forces. Targeting Kurdish civilians is a war crime for which Erdoğan should be held accountable. Armenians were victims of genocide. Armenians know better than anyone the wrath of Turkey and the duplicity of its leaders.   

What about Kurds? You have spent some time in Iraqi Kurdistan.  What do they think and expect from Turkey? 

Iraqi Kurds have extensive cooperation with Turkey, including energy transport from oil and gas fields in Kirkuk and Suleimania to the port of Ceyhan. Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan are both antagonistic towards the PKK. When it comes to fighting ISIS, Kurdish unity is critical.

How important are the Kurds and the “Kurdish question” for Turkey’s democratization process?

There are about 20 million Kurds in Turkey. However, their political and cultural rights are systematically denied. A dozen members of parliament from the pro-Kurdish HDP are in jail. Kurdish mayors have been arrested or fired. Local community leaders with the KCK are targeted and imprisoned. Turkey cannot be a democracy unless Kurds are fully enfranchised. Instead, Kurds are victimized. A recent report by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights described mass killings and deportations, despite Turkey’s effort to cover up facts on the ground by denying access to UN investigators. 

Do you have doubts about Turkey’s eligibility as a NATO member? 

I propose that the North Atlantic Council establish a Compliance Review Committee to evaluate the performance of NATO members when it comes to democracy and human rights. If a NATO member receives a failing grade two years consecutively, their membership should be suspended. In addition to Turkey, Hungary is also a country of concern.

What do you think will happen after the “April Referendum” in Turkey?  In May, what kind of Turkey should we expect? 

A majority of Turks will vote “no”, rejecting Erdoğan’s executive presidency. However, Erdoğan will steal the vote and declare victory. Constitutional reform establishing a dictatorship has been Erdoğan’s project for years. There is no way he will lose the vote. Instability and social conflict will ensue.

Turkey has been a geopolitically important country for both Europe and Caucasus. Turkey has a huge influence on Azerbaijan, and as you know, Azerbaijan continues to break the ceasefire agreement on a daily basis. How will Turkish political uncertainties affect the region, especially in regard to the Azerbaijan-Artsakh (Karabakh) conflict? 

Turkey will seek to change the Minsk Group by insisting on an expanded role for itself or by trying to shift mediation from the OSCE to the UN. Turkey is a party to the conflict and cannot play a constructive role in mediation. The Minsk group has proven ineffective, but at least it has prevented a spiral of deadly violence from which Azerbaijan and Turkey would seek to benefit.

For many years, you made efforts for Turkish-Armenian reconciliation and opening borders without preconditions. What do you forecast for future relations between Turkey and Armenia?  

The Protocols provide a path forward. Turkey should ratify the Protocols, enabling normal travel and trade and enhanced diplomatic cooperation. Erdoğan does not share my view. His idea about reconciliation is to humiliate and abuse Armenians. Reconciliation is a process not an event. Turkish and Armenian civil society should expand their interaction and explore areas for cooperation. We have already seen progress when people get together and can relate in human terms, independent of their governments.  

Source: Agos