On the night of January 15, Azerbaijani armed forces fired about 600 shots at the Armenian positions, sin arms of different calibers, AGS-17 and RPG-7 grenade launchers.

On January 14, at 9:30pm, Azerbaijani commando units attempted an incursion in the eastern direction of the Line of Contact. The advance forces of the Defense Army of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) spotted the commando unit and retaliated, killing at least two Azerbaijani commandos.

The Armenian side did not suffer losses. The NKR Defense Army is in full control of the situation.

It is no coincidence Azerbaijan is trying to agree to the OSCE Minsk Group’s proposals though it opposed earlier, political scientist Stepan Danielyan, Chairman of the Cooperation for Democracy center, told Tert.am.

According to him, Azerbaijan may make more serious concessions later. Time is against Azerbaijan because Kurds’ struggle for independence is changing the region’s geopolitical mosaic.

Mr Danielyan, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan has rebuked the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) members for not stating their positions on Azerbaijan’s attack on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and on the Line of Contact.  Armenia’s leader particularly said that, although each state has its own interests, “every time when the armed forces of Azerbaijan use guns, rocket mortars, or artillery against the Republic of Armenia, they are firing at Astana, Dushanbe, Bishkek, Moscow, and Minsk.” In your opinion, what is the reason for President Serzh Sargsyan’s statement? Do you share many opinions it was belated criticism?

In recent years, along with the Custom Union member-states’ summits, the leaders of Turkic states have been holding meetings. A structure seems to have been simultaneously forming on the basis of the ethnic unity concept. Turkey’s joining that union was being talked about. Of course, Russia was concerned. The situation was ambiguous. Turkic states’ leaders held their meetings in Nakhijevan as well – an important and weak link in the chain of their union. Besides, Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev makes regular statements on “West Azerbaijan”, that is, on Azerbaijan’s territorial claims on Armenia – in the presence of the Turkic states’ leaders, who did not in any way respond to his statements. Of course, such ambitions pose a threat to Russia as well. One should not be deceived by Russia’s great territory. It follows the domino principle: a falling domino causing an entire row of upended dominoes to fall as far as Yakutia. After Russian-Turkish relations worsened, Russian political figures and political scientists started speaking of Turkish threats at the highest level. Moscow was especially concerned over, to put it mildly, extreme restraint shown by the Turkic states, even Tatarstan. And it is the “moment of sincerity” now, which was at one time passed over for political reasons. And now it is being publicly stated. President Serzh Sargsyan’s speech reflected Russia’s position as well. As regards “belated” criticism, I do not think so. Such things are normally said at the right moment.

Why should the CSTO and the individual member-states – which never before expressed their position on the border incidents – do that now? Do you think there will be any statement by the CSTO?

The problem doesn’t have anything to do with specific attitudes by the CSTO member states. The problem is that those countries were given a specific task they aren’t able to accomplish. It was a rather tough alternative for them. The knot of national and economic security, ethnic identity and religious affiliation poses serious challenges to that country. As for Belarus, that country’s leader tries to gain dividends in any situation, which is a completely different story,” he added.

The two countries’ leaders met in the run-up to the CSTO session. That meeting finally took place thanks to the Minsk Group efforts, but it apparently didn’t yield any result, as the border tension never eased. On the contrary, Azerbaijan used mine-launchers, tanks and other heavy equipment. Given that the presidential meeting even appears fruitless in terms of easing border tension, what else can be effective?

I believe that Azerbaijan is now geopolitically and economically in an unfavorable situation which is likely to deteriorate even further. They are trying to reach a prompt solution. So no wonder they are now trying to agree to the Minsk Group proposals which they earlier resisted. They feel it is possible to make greater concessions later. By provoking border clashes, perhaps, they are trying to speed up consent over an accord or a proposal – something they would never do earlier. I don’t think time works in favor of Azerbaijan. The Kurdish independence process changes the geopolitical mosaic. So I think we now need to simply win time.

Nagorno-Karabakh’s Ministry of Defense reports over a dozen of Azerbaijani servicemen killed and injured in recent retaliatory attacks.
In a statement issued on Monday, it also dismisses the Azerbaijani media reports about the Armenian losses.
“The Ministry of Defense of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic announces that the Defense Army’s frontline military units resorted to retaliatory actions in response to [Azerbaijan’s] proactive operations, leaving over  a dozen killed and wounded in the direction of Akna,” reads the official press release.