Will Turkish-Iraqi alliance against Kurds hold?

October 18, 2017 By administrator

By Semih Idiz

Events show again how slippery a foundation politics in the Middle East sit on. A year ago I argued in this column that the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) would remain Turkey’s main ally in Iraq for the foreseeable future.

Ankara and Baghdad were trading insults then over Iraq’s categorical refusal to allow Turkey to participate in the liberation of Mosul from the Islamic State (IS). Baghdad was also demanding that “uninvited” Turkish troops at the Bashiqa camp near Mosul be withdrawn.

The KRG, however, provided the cover for the Turkish military presence in Bashiqa. Ankara maintained at the time that it was the Iraqi Kurds who wanted Turkish troops in Iraq to train peshmerga fighters against IS.

“As far as Bashiqa is concerned, you know that from the start … the [Massoud] Barzani administration wanted Turkish support to train local forces for the liberation of Mosul. This is clear and not open to dispute,” Deputy Prime Minister Numan Kurtulmus told reporters after the Iraqi parliament demanded Turkish withdrawal.

Meanwhile, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, angered by Baghdad’s refusal to let Turkey participate in the liberation of Mosul, was berating Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi. Calling Abadi his subordinate and telling him to “know [his] place,” Erdogan insisted that Turkey did not need anyone’s permission to participate in the Mosul operation. In the end, Abadi carried the day in Mosul, with US support, while Turkey refused to pull its forces back from Bashiqa, which remains a sore point between the sides.

KRG President Massoud Barzani’s gamble with his independence referendum, however, has changed everything, forcing Turkey and Iraq into an alliance against the KRG — a match that doesn’t look like it was made in heaven.

Officially, Ankara is happy to see the KRG lose much of Kirkuk and has offered Baghdad what assistance it needs. It is also happy that tens of thousands of Kurds who had resettled in the oil rich city after the US occupation in 2003 are fleeing now.

Ankara argues that the resettlement of Kurds in Kirkuk was designed to artificially change the demography of the city, which it says is a Turkmen city historically. Its strained ties with Baghdad, however, ensured that it did not pursue this matter with the KRG in recent years. It is not certain, though, that Baghdad’s taking control of the city with an operation spearheaded by the Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) will result in the administration Turkey wants to see in Kirkuk.

There is also the problem of the PMU, which is a Shiite terrorist group in Ankara’s eyes. It was not long ago that the pro-government analysts were writing that this group “was as bad as IS.” When the PMU was preparing to take Tal Afar from IS in 2016, Erdogan warned that if it terrorized the city, which he said was “totally Turkmen,” Turkey would step in. Ankara did not want this group to be part of the operation to liberate Mosul either, but it failed to prevent this.

The PMU, for its part, warned Turkey of dire consequences if it refused to withdraw its troops from Bashiqa, referring to the Turkish military presence as “occupiers.”

Such serious differences between Baghdad and Ankara appear to have been momentarily shelved as the two countries try now to coordinate their joint actions against the KRG. The future status of Kirkuk, however, is likely to remain a bone of contention.

Agitated by the Nationalist Action Party (MHP) — which is close to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) — Turkish nationalists regard Kirkuk to be Turkey’s by birthright. The MHP says thousands of its partisans are ready to fight and die for the city, which, it argues, was illegally wrested from Turkey after World War I.

A Western diplomat speaking to Al-Monitor off the record due to his sensitive position believes there will be little incentive now for the central government to share Kirkuk’s administration.

“With the Kurds dispatched from Kirkuk, there is a good chance that the central government, which is predominantly Shiite, will take full control of the city and its oil facilities and refuse to share power,” the diplomat, who knows the region well, said. “There will also be no reason for the central government to go out of its way to accommodate Sunni Turkmen, especially those Turkmen groups that have been supported by Ankara politically and financially for years.”

Semih Idiz is a columnist for Al-Monitor’s Turkey Pulse. He is a journalist who has been covering diplomacy and foreign policy issues for major Turkish newspapers for 30 years. His opinion pieces can be followed in the English-language Hurriyet Daily News. His articles have also been published in The Financial Times, The Times of London, Mediterranean Quarterly and Foreign Policy magazine.

Greece Seeks to Create South-European Alliance to Protest ‘Austerity Policy’

August 9, 2016 By administrator

The Greek government invited leaders of five South-European countries in order to accelerate cooperation in the economic field. German newspaper DWN writes that the main goal of the alliance would be to counter the austerity policy of the German government.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is said to have invited the leaders of five South-European countries to a conference which will take place on September 9, in Athens, the newspaper wrote citing Greece-based news agency ANA-MPA.

The meeting is aimed at discussing “common” economic, political and institutional challenges, particularly focusing on the EU’s austerity policies and migration.

“Athens consciously seeks closer cooperation between the southern EU member states,” DWN wrote.

According to the media source, with this move the Greek Prime Minister hopes to ease austerity measures and come out of the current financial crisis.

France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Cyprus and Malta are expected to attend the conference.

Greece is currently negotiating its way through its third bailout agreement with its creditors. Having had to be rescued a third time, Greece is being given financial support in a series of tranches of money after meeting strict conditions on changes to its fiscal policy.

Greece to Inject About $3Bln Into Banking System by Easing Capital Controls

In short, Greece is being called on to make severe cuts to public services, while widening and increasing tax collection and making major reforms to its state pension system. The austerity measures are deeply unpopular and have led to demonstrations and strikes for years.

Earlier in April, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and Portugal’s Prime Minister Antonio Costa signed a joint declaration in which both classified the EU’s austerity policies as “wrong”.

“This austerity policy weakens economies and divides society,” the two politicians stressed and expressed their dissatisfaction with the EU.

More Serbs Back Alliance With Russia as Support for EU Entry Falters

January 18, 2016 By administrator

According to the latest poll by popular Serbian politics magazine New Serbian Political Thought, Serbs’ support for the idea of joining the European Union is continuing its downward slide, while support for an undefined ‘alliance with Russia’, or for the country’s neutrality, continues to grow.

Interviewed by Sputnik Serbia, Djordje Vukadinovic, the editor in chief of the independent magazine, revealed that “at the moment, according to our research, support for joining the European Union stands at about 47%. Among that figure, 25% is the ‘backbone’ which has always been (and will remain) in favor of the EU.”

Ultimately, he notes, “most respondents see in Europe a chance for a better future for the next generation, rather than a chance for themselves. However, undoubtedly, the number of Eurosceptics is growing.”

Interestingly, when the question is not a yes/no proposition, but an explicit choice between the EU and Russia, the answers change. Also speaking to Sputnik Serbia, Srdjan Bogosavljevic, country manager for the Ipsos Strategic Marketing market research firm, explained why this is so.

“When one asks people: ‘Are you for EU membership or for a union with Russia’, the ‘alliance with Russia’ option (whatever it means), receives 20% more support than the EU.”

“We are now finding,” Bogosavljevic explained, “that a large number of people support both the EU and Russia. But when we force them to choose between them, about 15% choose the EU, while 33% choose Russia, and 35% step out in favor of neutrality.”

In any case, Vukadinovic noted, “support for European integration has faced a slow but consistent decline. We see it drop from poll to poll, and now support is down to less than 50%.”

Noting that there has been a marked spike in Euroscepticism, the magazine editor explained that “when we talk about those who support the European Union, this is a broad but fragile group. Eurosceptics on the other hand are much more implacable – much firmer in their convictions. Of the 45% of respondents who support the EU, only about half of them can boast such firm convictions.”

“The rest are on the fence; after all, the ruling Serbian Progressive Party has evolved from a Eurosceptic to a ‘Euroreformist’ party, and voters followed their leader, who told them that it is necessary to join the EU.”

The Serbian Progressive Party emerged in 2008 as a result of a split with the Serbian Radical Party –a Eurosceptic party which at the time was the country’s leading opposition force.

Turkey joins 34-state Islamic military alliance against terrorism announced by Saudi Arabia

December 15, 2015 By administrator

Turkey has joined a 34-state Islamic military alliance against terrorism whose formation was announced by Saudi Arabia on Dec. 14, according to a joint statement published by state news agency SPA.

“The countries here mentioned have decided on the formation of a military alliance led by Saudi Arabia to fight terrorism, with a joint operations centre based in Riyadh to coordinate and support military operations,” the statement said.

A long list of Arab countries such as Egypt, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, together with Islamic countries Malaysia, Pakistan and Gulf Arab and African states were mentioned.

The announcement cited “a duty to protect the Islamic nation from the evils of all terrorist groups and organizations whatever their sect and name which wreak death and corruption on earth and aim to terrorize the innocent.”

Shi’ite Muslim Iran, Sunni Saudi Arabia’s arch rival for influence in the Arab world, was absent from the states named as participants, as proxy conflicts between the two regional powers rage from Syria to Yemen.

The United States has been increasingly outspoken about its view that Gulf Arab states should do more to aid the military campaign against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) militant group based in Iraq and Syria.

In a rare press conference, 30-year-old deputy crown prince and Defence Minister Mohammed bin Salman told reporters on Dec. 15 that the campaign would “coordinate” efforts to fight terrorism in Iraq, Syria, Libya, Egypt and Afghanistan, but offered few concrete indications of how military efforts might proceed.

“There will be international coordination with major powers and international organisations … in terms of operations in Syria and Iraq. We can’t undertake these operations without coordinating with legitimacy in this place and the international community,” bin Salman said without elaborating.

Asked if the new alliance would focus just on ISIL, bin Salman said it would confront not only that group but “any terrorist organisation that appears in front of us.”

Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Arab neighbours have been locked in nine months of warfare with Iran-allied rebels in neighbouring Yemen, launching hundreds of air strikes there.

Especially after a rash of attacks on Western targets claimed by ISIL in recent months, the United States has increasingly said it thinks that firepower would better be used against ISIL.

As a ceasefire is set to take hold in Yemen on Dec. 15 alongside United Nations-backed peace talks, Riyadh’s announcement may signal a desire to shift its attention back toward the conflicts north of its borders.

ISIL has pledged to overthrow the monarchies of the Gulf and have mounted a series of attacks on Shi’ite Muslim mosques and security forces in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

Paris Should Leave NATO If Ankara Stays in Alliance – French Party Head

November 27, 2015 By administrator

Jacques Cheminade

France should leave NATO if Turkey preserves its membership in the alliance after the downing of a Russian Su-24 aircraft.

MOSCOW (Sputnik) — France should leave NATO if Turkey preserves its membership in the alliance after the downing of a Russian Su-24 aircraft, head of the French Solidarity and Progress party told Sputnik France on Friday.

“Either France should leave NATO at this stage, or to demand suspension or exclusion of Turkey [from the alliance members] as part of NATO,” Jacques Cheminade said.

On Tuesday, the Su-24 bomber crashed in Syria. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the plane was downed by an air-to-air missile launched by a Turkish F-16 jet over Syrian territory, falling 4 kilometers (2.5 miles) from the Turkish border. Putin described the Turkish attack as a “stab in the back” carried out by “accomplices of terrorists.”

Following the incident, NATO expressed solidarity with Turkey and offered support for Ankara saying that the Alliance’s assessments of the incident were consistent with information provided by the country, which claimed that the Russian warplane had briefly violated Turkish airspace.

French authorities changed their point of view toward Syria’s role in the struggle against the Islamic State militant group, Jacques Cheminade said.

Earlier in the day, French Minister Laurent Fabius told RTL radio that troops loyal to Syrian President Bashar Assad, along with the Free Syrian Army and the Kurds, could be used to fight ISIL on the ground.

“A change in France’s position is evident. Even Fabius suggested that the Syrian army could participate in the struggle against the IS,” Jacques Cheminade said.

He added that French President Francois Hollande assumed that the Syrian army would join the coalition against the ISIL group, despite his negative attitude toward Assad’s government.

The Syrian army and some local militias are fighting ISIL in Syria on the ground.

Earlier in November, Hollande announced his plans to create a broad anti-terror coalition to fight ISIL jihadists.

Putin VS Erdogan: Syrian Kurds Seek Alliance With Russia

October 10, 2015 By administrator

Syrian Kurds have expressed their willingness to cooperate with Russia. This would be a setback for the Turkish President Erdogan, who is seeking to destroy the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), DWN wrote.
In an interview with al-Monitor, the leader of the Syrian Kurds Salih Muslim announced his willingness to cooperate with Russia and Syrian President Bashar-al-Assad, the newspaper reported.
He said the Syrian Kurds are interested in cooperating with anyone who fights against ISIL. Moreover, Russia had promised the government in Damascus that it would respond to any Turkish intervention in Syria, which many Kurds are afraid of.
The US, for its turn, has been also increasingly supporting cooperation with the Russians. Many US officials believe that Russia could be helpful in their fight against ISIL, which turned out to be more difficult than expected.
However, Turkey fears that potential Russia’s support for the Kurds may lead to a situation in which a new Kurdish region would form along its southern borders and destabilize Turkey. This could result in a further downturn in the relations between Turkey and Russia, which have already deteriorated after an aviation incident at the Turkish border.
On October 3, a Russian Su-30 fighter jet had briefly crossed Turkish airspace due to poor weather conditions. Russian authorities officially apologized for the incident, saying it was a “misunderstanding,” and promised to avoid such incidents in the future.

Egypt, Greece, Greek Cyprus form alliance, isolates Turkey further

May 5, 2015 By administrator

Egyptian President al-Sisi (C) chats with Greek Prime Minister Tsipras (L) and Greek Cypriot leader Anastasiades in Nicosia

While the leaders of regional actors Greece, Egypt and Greek Cyprus, which have been at odds with Turkey, met in nicosia last week for a trilateral meeting to boost security, energy and economic relations, Turkey is increasingly isolating itself by adding the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC) to the list of regional actors it has offended.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi traveled to Greek Cyprus to meet with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and Greek Cypriot leader Nicos Anastasiades last Wednesday. El-Sisi had previously hosted Anastasiades and former Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras last November in Cairo, declaring new energy cooperation in the region between the three parties.

Analysts closely following Turkey agree that Ankara’s faulty foreign policy in the region helps the formation of such new friendships and contributes to Turkey’s further isolation. Former Turkish foreign minister and architect of its regional policies Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu’s “zero problems with neighbors” concept has long been a source of mockery in international circles as “zero neighbors,” with Turkey increasing its problematic relations in the region by the day.

During his visit to Greek Cyprus, Tsipras said that Greece would launch consultations with Egypt and Greek Cyprus to establish maritime boundaries in the eastern Mediterranean. Visiting Nicosia’s southern area, Tsipras said the maritime boundaries would be defined in areas where the consent of third countries was not required.

Maritime zones claimed by countries for commercial research, known as economic exploitation zones (EEZ), are normally governed by the United Nations’ Law of the Sea or bilateral agreements between neighboring states that usually settle on an equidistant boundary. Ankara, which is not a signatory to that convention, questions the jurisdiction of Cyprus’s internationally recognized Greek Cypriot government in exploring for oil and gas.

Greek Cyprus has rebuffed Turkish claims and defined its economic zone in 2004. Since then it has delineated its maritime boundaries with Egypt and Israel, where vast amounts of natural gas have been discovered in the past two years.

Turkey and Greece have been at loggerheads for decades over land, air, sea and seabed borders in parts of the Aegean Sea.

After talks with el-Sisi and Anastasiades, Tsipras said, “We agreed on further consultations for defining our sea zones wherever that is deemed necessary, and obviously where it does not require an understanding and cooperation with third countries.”

The three parties have also agreed to step up cooperation on combatting terrorism amid fears over worsening security conditions in the region, including Libya. El-Sisi, Tsipras and Anastasiades agreed to boost defense and security ties and to discuss relevant information to counter terrorist threats. They expressed “grave concern” over a growing terrorist threat in Libya that may destabilize neighboring countries, adding that they support putting in place a counterterrorism strategy that would run in tandem with the ongoing political process.

Source: Zaman