Fehim Taştekin

Contributor, Turkey Pulse

Following two years of secret talks, Turkey and Armenia signed  two protocols aimed at normalizing ties in Zurich on Oct. 10, 2009,  attended by the US and Russian foreign ministers. Even though the protocols  made no reference to Nagorno-Karabakh, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan put  forward a condition that Armenia should take a step toward resolving the  conflict. In Armenia, meanwhile, the Constitutional Court approved the protocols  with reservations before sending them to parliament for ratification. Turkey  protested that the court’s reasoning went “against the spirit of the protocols.”  Finally, Armenian President Serzh Sarkisyan announced Armenia was suspending the  ratification process on the grounds that Turkey was putting conditions on  it.

Three years on, Turkey is seeking to revive the Armenian dossier. The first  signal came on Nov. 6 from Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. In  a briefing to parliament’s Foreign Affairs Commission, he said, “Our  efforts ahead of 2015 are continuing at full speed. Our demand is that [the  Armenians] pull out from Karabakh. We are expecting a move on this issue. If it  happens, both the border crossing and the railroad will be reopened and other  relations will follow. But we want to do this together with Azerbaijan,”

Turkish Foreign Ministry sources told Al-Monitor that the  “second Armenian opening” was discussed with Azeri President Ilham Aliyev when  he visited Ankara on Nov. 12 and was decorated with a state medal, as well as  during Davutoglu’s visit to Washington Nov. 18-19 and Erdogan’s meeting with  Russian President Vladimir Putin in Saint Petersburg Nov. 22.

“We are open to all creative ideas that could pave the way for regional  peace,” one diplomat said, stressing Ankara’s hope that the Azeri and Armenian  governments would be also open to “creative” ideas, now that they have both  overcome their election tests. “For every step we take, we speak with Azerbaijan  and reach consensus,” the diplomat added. The failure of the 2009 protocols owed  much to Azerbaijan’s tough objections.

Pullout condition

Several ideas have surfaced ahead of Dec. 12, when Davutoglu will be in  Yerevan to attend a gathering of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation  Organization. According to media reports, Ankara has outlined the  following new  proposal: If Armenia pulls out from at least two of the seven regions it  occupied in 1993, Turkey will reopen one border crossing. Aliyev was reportedly  briefed last month about Turkey’s proposal to reopen the border in return for  Armenian withdrawal from parts of the occupied territory. The  Armenian Aravot newspaper, meanwhile, reported that  Armenia had conveyed its own three-item road map to Davutoglu through secret  diplomatic channels in early December. The three conditions the newspaper listed  are as follows:

1. Turkey should openly recognize the Armenian  genocide.
2. The Turkish-Armenian border should be reopened immediately  and bilateral diplomatic relations established.
3. Support should be given to efforts to install a peacekeeping force that  would prevent cease-fire violations at the Nagorno-Karabakh border, ensure the  removal of snipers from the area and lay the ground for a peaceful  climate.

A Turkish Foreign Ministry official told Al-Monitor that  the ministry is willing to discuss fresh ideas with its Armenian counterpart in  Yerevan, but denied that Yerevan had relayed its own road map. The ministry is  reluctant to openly confirm the Turkish proposal, but Turkish pro-government  newspapers describe it as “Turkey taking action for both peace in the  Caucasus and normalization of ties with Armenia.”

Getting ready for 2015

Could Turkey’s new move yield results? The Armenian government is unlikely to  accept a proposal that falls behind the 2009 terms, as it already had  difficulties in explaining to its public why the protocols did not include an  apology for the genocide. This is also evident from the snippy  remarks of Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister Savarsh Kocharyan: “If  Turkey wishes to have civilized relations with Armenia, it must recognize the  genocide and open the border. Instead of making provocative statements that  could hurt the prospect of any positive development, the Turkish foreign  minister should use his visit to Yerevan to visit the genocide  memorial and pay respect to the genocide victims.”

And that’s the point where the whole process becomes deadlocked. For any  Armenian, recognition of the genocide is the one and only doorstep to  friendship, whereas Turkey is scrambling to go a different route.

Davutoglu’s new Armenian opening has little chance of success. The initiative  will no doubt be seen as a maneuver to counter the pressure that will pile up on  Turkey ahead of 2015, the 100th anniversary of the genocide. Listening to the  debates in parliament is enough to reach this conclusion.

Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc, speaking Nov. 5 at the parliament’s  Budget and Planning Commission over the budget of the Turkish History  Institution, explained how Turkey would counter the Armenians’ international  campaigns for 2015.

“2015 is the 100th anniversary of the Gallipoli battle on the one hand, and  the so-called Armenian genocide allegations on the other. We are working  seriously on that. Work is underway on symposiums, conferences, panels, book  publications and documentaries,” said Arinc. “But at the same time, we are  working also on some very special initiatives in other realms that could have an  impact on all countries around the world in terms of public diplomacy.” The  institution, he added, would organize 14 “scientific meetings” in 2014 and  allocate 8,239,000 Turkish lira ($4,045,000) for its activities.

While the government is mobilizing to debunk the “genocide allegations,” the  opposition is targeting it for not doing more. At loggerheads on myriad issues,  the opposition and the government reach a national consensus when it comes to  the Armenian issue.

Making such preparations for 2015 sours the positive impact the new opening  could make on Armenians. The Turkish Foreign Ministry believes the political  atmosphere in Yerevan is favorable for a new opening, but given the traumatic  conditions the 2015 anniversary is already creating and Armenia’s deepening  relations with Russia, the prospects for Ankara-Yerevan ties are far from  promising.

Yerevan has fully delegated its security to Russia with a decision to extend  the Gyumri Base treaty until 2044 and decided to  join the Russian-led Eurasian Union instead of entering into a  free-trade agreement with the European Union. Both moves stand out as  discouraging external factors with respect to Turkish-Armenian  rapprochement.

Restoring the 2009 momentum seems difficult in any case. Sadly, the barrier  in front of Turkish-Armenian peace is rising even higher ahead of 2015, rivaling  Ararat Mountain itself.

Fehim Taştekin is a columnist and chief editor of  foreign news at the Turkish newspaper Radikal, based in  Istanbul. He is the host of a fortnightly program called “Dogu Divanı” on IMC  TV. He is an analyst specializing in Turkish foreign policy and Caucasus,  Middle East and EU affairs. He was founding editor of Agency