Styopa Safaryan: short and preliminary observations on what happened on the street.

April 17, 2018 By administrator

Styopa Safaryan

The Armenian Institute of International and Security Affairs – AIISA

Again, short and preliminary observations on what happened on the street.
– The target is not to declare a state of emergency, like some friends, write commentators, draw parallels with March 1. In my preliminary opinion, the goal is to instill fear among the youth and the people that there are already such groups in the streets and there are “fields” to be feared, so that many people will want to communicate with such a group, leave home or leave their own young person. Believe me, the government has even benefited from the broad dissemination of this, direct broadcasting.
-This is not about the fears of the authorities, as some friends write again. No, there is just a desire to influence the transformation of the movement that would like or want the movement’s creators and supporters to begin with. The old goal is not achieved, the old roadmap is no longer in force for its strategic purpose, and now new goals should be set.
The authorities see that the aim of Nikol Pashinyan and the movement is to prevent the nervous system of the government from indirect attacks and barbaric strategies in the face of these actions during these days / leave the word velvet revolution, the ways to reach it are not completely visible, with such an attempt to counteract the enemy’s indirect attack against an indirect assault.
– As long as we laugh, ridicule and consider unsuccessful what we have, remember something once and for all.
According to the theory of strategic interactions, if small and large parties adopt indirect attack strategies, such as barbarism / happening in the asymmetric conflict, then in the case of such combinations of strategies and matrices, the victory is stronger with resources, power, and so on. This is not what I say, science and the statistics of asymmetric conflicts over the past two hundred years.
Thus, both the type of strategies adopted by both parties and the outline of the upcoming developments are already visible.
So, do not underestimate the power strategists. Someone is obviously well-versed in such things.
Of all, I know that some revolution experts will have speeches and reviews, but I can not …

Կրկին կարճ ու նախնական դիտարկումներ Պողոտայում կատարվածի վերաբերյալ.
– թիրախն ամենևին արտակարգ դրության ռեժիմ հայտարարելը չէ, ինչպես որոշ ընկերներ, մեկնաբաններ գրում են՝ զուգահեռներ անցկացնելով մարտի 1-ի հետ: Իմ նախնական կարծիքով նպատակը երիտասարդության, բնակչության շրջանում վախի սերմանումն է, որ փողոցներում արդեն նման խմբեր ու վախենալու”դաշտեր” կան ու կարող են հանդիպել, ըստ այդմ՝ նպատակ ունենալով, որ շատերը կզգուշանան նման զանգվածի հետ շփվել, տանից դուրս գալ կամ թողնել սեփական երիտասարդին: Հավատացեք, իշխանությանը անգամ ձեռնտու էր այդ ամենի լայն սփռումը, ուղիղ հեռարձակումը:
-կատարվածն ամենևին իշխանության վախերի մասին չէ, ինչպես կրկին որոշ ընկերներ գրում են. ոչ, պարզապես ցանկություն կա ազդելու շարժման տրանսֆորմացիայի վրա, որը ուզեն թե չուզեն շարժման հեղինակներն ու համակիրներտ, սկսված է. հին սահմանված նպատակը ձեռքբերված չէ, հին ճանապարհային քարտեզն իր ռազմավարական նպատակով այլևս ուժի մեջ չէ, այժմ պետք է նոր նպատակներ դրվեն:
-Իշխանությունը տեսնում է, որ առայժմ Նիկոլ Փաշինյանի ու շարժման նպատակը իշխանության նյարդային

“Serzh Sargsyan appoints Karen Karapetyan to “stand in for him” until 2018”. Styopa Safaryan

November 28, 2016 By administrator

Styopa Safaryan
Founder & head of research programmes of the Armenian Institute of International and Security Affairs

By Luiza SUKIASYAN

“Since Serzh Sargsyan has not ruled out his perspective of becoming a Prime Minister after 2018, an important question arises whether he will see Karen Karapetyan off after the parliamentary elections and later. The RPA Congress answered this question: until the end of the term of Serzh Sargsyan’s power in 2018, Serzh Sargsyan appoints Karen Karapetyan a stand in for him and as to what he will do after the end of his term in office, the question remains open,” said political scientist Styopa Safaryan to Aravot.am, referring to statements voiced in the RPA Congress that in the case of obtaining a vote of confidence in the nearest parliamentary elections, Karen Karapetyan will be nominated as a candidate for the RPA prime minister. In his description, Serzh Sargsyan has made an important move for him, “He has reduced the risks associated with the acute struggle for being a prime minister inside the team. Serzh Sargsyan has once seen it in the face of Hovik Abrahamyan’s and Tigran Sargsyan’s struggle. In addition, Serzh Sargsyan eased the Russian threats for him. In the past, in the form of Armenian players and directly especially in 2013-2014, it was shown that Tigran Sargsyan is an unwanted Prime Minister and Serzh Sargsyan keeps him literally. Now, it seems that Serzh Sargsyan should not have fears of the political forces with Russian orientation because if they try to come out against the government, it would turn out that they want to come out against Tigran Karapetyan, a “man of Moscow”.”

Styopa Safaryan does not rule out that in the context of all this, Russia after the events in April pursuing the goal to regain the trust will apply to cajoling actions in the military-political field, “Maybe they will become more tactful. Recently, it has become obvious that the Russians have become cool and are a little afraid to advance their plan on Karabakh which they were formerly doing it in rather a brazen way,” noted the political scientist.

Styopa Safaryan. It is obvious that Gagik Tsarukyan has hopes with the government

October 28, 2016 By administrator

“Gagik Tsarukyan has put his return in dependence on several parameters. If he does not sharply refute his return, it means that he himself thinks about it” while talking to Aravot.am said Head of Armenian Institute of International and Security Affairs, Styopa Safaryan. Note that on October 25 while talking to journalists former president of the Prosperous Armenia Party Gagik Tsarukyan said that he had closed the page of politics, but he does not exclude his return to politics.

Styopa Safaryan noted that Gagik Tsarukyan himself connects his return to a certain factors, “It is notable that Gagik Tsarukyan not naturally refers to the statement made on February 12, 2015 because Tsarukyan not only left by his statement but also he left by the statement and decision of the authorities. Therefore, it seems that he himself makes it clear that for his return it is not only the factors related to him because ultimately Serzh Sargsyan called him a disaster and demanded leave the politics. Thus, if the dismissal took place by the decision of both sides, then I think the return also supposes the decision of both sides. It is not a coincidence that Serzh Sargsyan hints on renowned governors”. Touching upon the statement made by gagik Tsarukyan so that the Prime Minister knows what he does, do not worry, Styopa Safaryan said that he did not know why Tsarukyan trusts Karen Karapentyan’s words, however, according to him; this is what shows that Gagik Tsarukyan has a problem with a wing of the authorities “but not with the government and the newly appointed Prime Minister.

Styope Safaryan considers this an obvious fact that Gagik Tsarukyan’s statement are related to the upcoming parliamentary elections “Why he thinks about it, because in any case in 2012 he got the second weight of the political field as a political force. On that basis it is notable that if his factor is removed from the political field for ever, definitely Prosperous Armenia Party will record quite humble results. Gagik Tsarukyan knows well what political support means, and surely he would not love to lose what he got in 2012. And perhaps this is the reason why he does not exclude the possibility of returning to the party before the parliamentary elections of 2017”.

I can not say which prominent wing is that because all those, who are not prominent for Gagik Tsarukyan, are prominent oligarchs for the public. To tell the truth, I do not know who he considers but it is obvious that he separates the government and keeps hopes with it, but also hints about the bad governance by some celebrities. Now who are among those celebrities, whether he hints Serzh Sargsyan, I can not say. But I do not think that those who were speaking wgainst Gagik Tsarukyan are the celebrities”.