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Will Turkish-US relations survive the Armenian test? #armeniangenocide

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409

MURAT YETKİN

By MURAT YETKİN

Turkish-U.S. relations have survived many tests on the Armenian issue before.
The worst recent one was Ankara recalling the Turkish ambassador to Washington, back in 2007, when an “Armenian genocide resolution” was voted through the House of Representatives’ Foreign Affairs Committee. Ambassador Nabi Şensoy was sent with a confidential list of measures to be implemented if the bill was approved, (the closing of the İncirlik Air Base to U.S. flights was speculated as being among those measures). In the end, the resolution was turned down by then President George W. Bush. Report hurriyet

President Barack Obama promised during his election campaign in 2008 that he would recognize the 1915 massacres against the Ottoman Armenian population as “genocide.” But meeting the strategic realities of the U.S. interests, Obama has since adopted a smart way to express himself, using the Armenian word “Meds Yeghern” for it, (meaning “Great Disaster”), thus bypassing the entire political and legal consequences of the alternative.

This year, April 24 – which is taken as a symbolic anniversary for Armenians of the Ottoman Interior Minister Talat Pasha’s order to deport Armenians “collaborating with the invading Russian armies” during the First World War – may be quite different from previous years.

First of all, this year is the centenary of the events, and thus has a high symbolic and emotional value for Armenians.

Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan has invited leaders from all over the world to attend a special commemoration ceremony in Yerevan on April 24, 2015, and many replied positively. Invitations from Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan to attend Gallipoli commemorations on the same day have not been welcomed with much enthusiasm so far. Sargsyan’s answer to the move to change the Gallipoli commemoration date was to ask his parliament to annul a normalization protocol with Turkey, which was signed through Swiss mediation in 2009.

Armenia gives the utmost importance for the centenary campaign, especially targeting the U.S. Congress and the White House, and Yerevan has appointed one of the top guns in its arsenal as ambassador to Washington. Former Ambassasor Tigram Sargisyan was an internationally acknowledged name who has served as prime minister and central bank governor. One of his major achievements since arriving in the U.S. capital has been to gather all Armenian groups under one lobbying activity umbrella, leaving aside all their inner disputes for 2015.

It is not possible to say the same for the Turkish side.

Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu has been quoted as warning U.S. Ambassador to Ankara John Bass, when he first visited him late in November 2014, that if the U.S. recognized the Armenian claims, Ankara would “radically review” its relations with Washington.

Turkey-U.S. relations are not enjoying their golden age nowadays anyway. There are a series of problematic issues, from their stance regarding Russia in the Ukraine crisis to differences of approach in the struggle against radical Islamist groups in Syria and Iraq, from the Syrian and Egyptian administrations to Israel.

The Israeli lobby had been Turkey’s best friend for decades in countering Armenian moves in the Congress. It is not so enthusiastic anymore, due to Erdoğan’s consistent slamming of Israel. Turkey does not have an ambassador in Jerusalem, Cairo, or Damascus any longer, and already did not have one in Yerevan or the Greek side of Nicosia in Cyprus.

So, Turkish Ambassador to Washington Serdar Kılıç can expect no support from the Jewish, Greek or Arabic lobbies in the Congress. He cannot even have any hopes from all members of the Turkish Caucus in the Congress. Out of 131 congressmen in the Turkey Caucus, 41 recently put their signatures under a letter to U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry alerting him to the pressure on the Zaman media group.

Overall, they made up almost half of the signatories of that letter.

The Zaman group is currently the number one target of Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu’s government both inside and outside Turkey. President Erdoğan has already denounced its leader Fethullah Gülen, the moderate Islamist ideologue living in Pennsylvania (his former close ally) as the greatest threat to Turkey’s national security. The same Justice and Development Party (AK Parti) governments have previously almost outsourced serious Turkish activities abroad, including lobbying of Congress, through the Rumi Foundation, which is in line with Gülen.

One of leading figures of the Turkish Caucus, Gerry Connally recently cancelled an appointment with Ambassador Kılıç without any justification. Turkish lobbying groups, which are now dropping the experienced lobbying companies that used to work for them, are in such desperation that they have started to spread the word that Connally – a Catholic of Irish descent – was always under Gülen’s influence and is Jewish.

It seems that Ankara has no chance but to play the strategic card against Washington, to convince Obama that this time it can be a big gain for the White House, if not for the Turkish people.
February/18/2015

Turkey cancels a meeting with the EU in Istanbul due to a point on the Armenian Genocide

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Relations between Ankara and Brussels have been strained due to the inclusion of an item on the Armenian Genocide in the report by the European Parliament including 442 points.

According to the Turkish website objektifbakis.com for this reason Turkey unilaterally canceled the Parliamentary Committee EU-Turkey to be held on 18 and 19 February in Istanbul.

According to the website of Turkey and expressed his protest in Brussels saying that it is a “diplomatic against attack” against the addition of the point on the Armenian Genocide to the proposals.

Armenpress

Iran FM: Eurasian Union an option for development of Iran-Armenia cooperation

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13930215000493_PhotoIYEREVAN. – Armenia’s accession to the Eurasian Economic Union creates a good opportunity for development of cooperation between Iran and Armenia, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said in Yerevan on Tuesday.

The Minister said there is also a trilateral format of cooperation Iran-Armenia-Russia on communication.

“We are ready to work with Armenia and Russia in this field. There are many other areas for cooperation. We are neighbors and we have common interests. Our task is to use all opportunities, and the Eurasian Economic Union is one of them,” Zarif said during a joint press conference with his Armenian counterpart Edward Nalbandian.

Armenia became a full member of the Eurasian Union starting January 1.

2015 – A definitive year for Turkish-Armenian relations

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BY Sinem Cengiz,

41994d90-b4c1-42bd-a494-8061f4c8f65a_3x4_142x185The year of 2014 tested both Turkey’s foreign and domestic politics. The security threat originating from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) at its doorsteps and the domestic political turmoil challenged Turkish politics throughout the year. The foreign and the domestic issues that emerged during the year of 2014 are likely to continue during 2015.

However, among several foreign policy issues, Armenia seems to be the most significant issue that would dominate Turkish politics in the first half of 2015. Given the importance of 2015, the centennial of the tragic events of 1915 that led to the mass killings of Armenians by the Ottoman Empire during World War I, Turkish-Armenian relations is expected to go through a hard test.

The tragic events of 1915 are a greatly controversial matter in Turkey and Armenia as Armenians describe the events as “genocide” while Turkey says the events do not amount to genocide and that both Turks and Armenians were killed. April 2015, for this reason, will be very significant for both Turkey and Armenia. Armenians, who will be commemorating the centennial of the 1915 events, are engaged into several efforts for the international recognition of this tragedy as a “genocide”. On Turkish side, in response to the Armenians’ efforts for 2015, Turkish government plans to commemorate the centennial of the Çanakkale (Dardanelles) campaign on April 24-25 in order to counter the adverse effects of Armenian efforts.

Weathering the storm

According to Richard Giragosian, the director of the Yerevan-based Regional Studies Center (RSC), there are both challenges and limits in 2015; however, he believes that the Turkish government would seek to “weather the storm” of 2015, and only after the commemoration passes, would consider returning to the process of diplomatic engagement with Armenia.

Giragosian, in an interview last May in Yerevan, stated that Turkish side was exaggerating the importance of the year 2015 to be greater than it actually need be. “This is a psychological burden created by Turkey in terms of making the year 2015 a big issue. Turkey overreacting to the anniversary will only make the issue a bigger one,” he said. Agreeing with Giragosian, I believe that rather than considering 2015 as a panic year, Turkey should consider it as a year for opportunity to resume efforts at normalizing relations with Armenia. Turkey can take some significant steps, like it did in 2014, for the normalization of relations with its neighbor in 2015.

Armenia seems to be the most significant foreign policy issue that would dominate Turkish politics in the first half of 2015

Sinem Cengiz

Last year witnessed unprecedented, significant and historic developments in Turkish-Armenian relations. However, the most important step from the Turkish side came by then- Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the current president of Turkey, who issued a historic and a timing message of condolences about killings of Armenians in 1915. Erdogan’s statement came on 23 April, a day before of 99th anniversary of the tragic events.

For the first time in the history of Turkey, a Turkish leader offered condolences to the descendants of Ottoman Armenians. Such a message would have been unthinkable a decade ago. It was a very momentous indication of how the taboos regarding the Armenian question were breaking in Turkey although the official stance regarding the issue remains unchanged. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) government, with exception to many other issues, has taken important steps regarding the lifting of the taboos on freely discussing 1915 when compared to the previous Turkish governments. As Giragosian puts: “That statement not only offered a “safer space” within which to discuss the genocide issue, it also broadened the constituency for dialogue by sending a message not only to Armenians but also to Erdogan’s own base of supporters. And it established an important new precedent, whereby every Turkish prime minister will be expected to make a similar statement timed with each April 24th commemoration of the Armenian genocide.”

Also in 2014, Yerevan positively responded to Turkish invitation to take part in the Erdogan’s presidential inauguration ceremony. Foreign Minister Eduard Nalbandyan, who attended the ceremony, also invited Erdogan to visit Armenia on April, 24 2015. It is difficult to make a prediction whether Erdogan will visit Armenia or not but there are some steps that Turkish government can take in Armenia-Turkey rapprochement. Firstly, acknowledging the fact that Turkish-Armenian relations are multifaceted, Ankara can pursue a multidimensional policy in relations with Armenia. The Turkish-Armenian border, which has been closed since 1994, could be open as a gesture of good will. The long-awaited opening of the border between two neighbors would serve significantly in opening the mental borders between two societies. Secondly, the restoration of the diplomatic relations between two countries and the ratification of the frozen protocols signed between two countries in 2009 is a must for the improvement of the bilateral ties.

In the last days of 2014, Etyen Mahçupyan, the top adviser for theTurkish prime minister, stated that a priority for the future should be establishing relations with Armenia as well as the millions-strong diaspora rather than expecting to resolve a long-running dispute within this year. Mahçupyan, who considers 2015 as a “tough year” because of the anniversary, said “I don’t think we need to hurry 100 years on. What happens later on should proceed more healthily.”

The improvement of the relations between two countries is not easy to be achieved within a year, as it requires further time for the both sides to make their societies ready and to take confidence building measures. The both sides should not consider 2015 as an end, rather it should be considered as a start or the efforts to normalize the ties between two countries in the post-2015.

For both Ankara and Yerevan, there may be hard limitations in moving toward normalization; however, dragging out the process is not in interest of neither side. The normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia will be best for the interests of the two sides as the peace and the stability at their doorsteps and in Caucasia is of great importance to both Yerevan and Ankara.

Allow me to conclude with a quote from former Turkish Ambassador to UK, Ünal Çeviköz, who believes that Turkey should bring out a new initiative to overcome the deadlock in Turkish-Armenian relations. “When I think of Turkish-Armenian relations, I am inclined to characterize it as “history of missed opportunities” that has done injustice not only to the two nations, the two peoples, the two countries, but also to the whole Caucasus region. Unless there is normalization in Turkish-Armenian relations we will have serious difficulty in talking about an environment of sustainable peace and stability in the Caucasus.”

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Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst based in Athens. Born and lived in Kuwait, Cengiz focuses mainly on issues regarding Middle East and Turkey’s relations with the region. She was also the former diplomatic correspondent for Today’s Zaman newspaper, English daily in Turkey. She is currently researching on Turkish-Saudi relations to complete her MA in International Relations. She can be found on Twitter: @SinemCngz

Kurdish leader Salih Muslim: ISIS-Turkey relations should be investigated

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GÜLER – BRUSSELS

e0318235476330836fa0159d3ec4294fDemocratic Union Party (PYD) Co-President Salih Muslim who spoke to ANF reacted angrily to Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu’s comment that Turkey did not support ISIS, proposing that an independent international commission be set up to carry out an inquiry.

Defence line from Tel Kocher to Afrin

What is the current situation in the cantons of Rojava? Is there still a threat of attack?

There is war and struggle in Rojava. While military defence against attacks is continuing efforts are also being made to establish a system, which is gradually coming into being. All the institutions and people are involved in this system. The defence of this unique system is being undertaken by the people of Rojava from Tel Kocher to Afrin.

We know that before the Kobanê resistance there were circles that were opposed to you and did not accept your system. Has this changed?

Important cities like Mosul and Raqqa did not hold out 24 hours against But a small city like Kobanê has been resisting for 3 months. The whole world has seen this. This is down to organisation. If we had not been organised we couldn’t have resisted. This has undoubtedly changed many people’s minds.

Can people who are not PYD supporters take their place in the system?

The government in Rojava is not PYD or TEV-DEM. It is the people who are resolving their own problems. There is not a classic system of authority, this needs to be understood. The circles you mention have offices and associations in many towns, particularly in Qamişlo. Nobody prevents them carrying out their activities. Everyone is free to carry out their democratic activities. Let everyone struggle for the freedom of Rojava with their own ideas.

Following the halting of ISIS in Kobanê what changes have occurred in the region?

ISIS thought it could capture the whole region, but it was mistaken. Regional states and forces also calculated this would happen. But it hasn’t worked out like that. Even the US was fooled. Until a few months ago they didn’t want to speak to us. However, now they have realised the threat posed worldwide by ISIS.

A commission of inquiry should be set up

Which forces do you think are behind ISIS?

US Deputy President Joe Biden made this abundantly clear. The whole world knows who is behind them.

Recently ISIS launched an attack on Kobanê from Turkey. In the subsequent debate Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu said: “No one can say we support ISIS”. How do you evaluate this?

We claim Turkey is supporting ISIS. We suspect this. If Ahmet Davutoğlu is right and is so sure, we propose that an independent international commission be set up to investigate what has gone on.

You are calling for a commission to be established?

Yes, it should come to Turkey, to Rojava and carry out an enquiry in the border areas. Then it will emerge who is and who isn’t supporting ISIS, and the debate will stop.

How are your relations with the opposition within Syria?

They previously carried our propaganda against us. Some circles oppose us, saying we have a relationship with the PKK, and others clasim we collaborate with the regime. For those reasons they didn’t want to associate with us in international forums. But Kobanê has demonstrated who is a terrorist and who is fighting against terrorism. Both Western countries and forces in the Middle East have changed their stance as they have realised we are a serious actor in the Middle East.

In 2015 we will develop Kurdish diplomacy

Weren’t the Kurds seen as an actor previously?

International forces previously spoke to the Kurds through states such as Turkey, Iran and Iraq, but with Kobanê the Kurds began to be spoken to directly. For instance, it is because of Kobanê that states such as America, the UK and France have accepted us at a high level. This came about as a result of the struggle being waged by the Kurds in Kobanê. For three months the hearts of 40 million Kurds have been beating for Kobanê. Hence, hundreds of thousands of people all over the world came onto the streets for Kobanê. This opened many doors.

How will this assist Rojava diplomacy in 2015. What initiatives are you thinking of taking?

As a movement we are new to diplomacy and international relations. Therefore we have shortcomings. We could have achieved a lot more if we had had the cadre and organisation. I therefore take this opportunity to call on young people in academic circles in different countries to make contact with us, as we cannot go everywhere.

But despite this we have made a good start, and in 2015 we are expecting to achieve significant results in diplomacy. We do not expect ISIS and the chaotic situation in the Middle East to end soon. We are a significant force in the region, despite our shortcomings. We have proved this. Every day we receive applications from dozens of delegations wanting to visit Rojava, as we are establishing a freedom-based system in the Middle East with women playing a prominent role. Hence the interest.

At the Kurdish conference in the European Parliament you said that you would take an initiative for 1 November to be declared an international day against terrorism and in solidarity with Kobanê. Have you taken any steps?

We have announced this twice. We will continue our efforts to have this taken up by international bodies such as the UN. We decided this as a party and will wage a struggle for it.

BREAKING NEWS U.S. to Restore Full Diplomatic Relations With Cuba, Officials Say

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The United States will restore full diplomatic relations with Cuba and open an embassy in Havana for the first time in more than a half century after the release of an American contractor held in prison for five years, American officials said Wednesday.
In a deal negotiated during 18 months of secret talks hosted largely by Canada and encouraged by Pope Francis, who hosted a final culminating meeting at the Vatican, President Obama and President Raul Castro of Cuba agreed in a telephone call to put aside decades of hostility to find a new relationship between the island nation just 90 minutes off the American coast.
The contractor, Alan Gross, boarded an American government plane bound for the United States on Wednesday morning and the United States sent back three Cuban spies who have been in an American prison since 1981. American officials said the Cuban spies were swapped for a United States intelligence agent who has been in a Cuban prison for nearly 20 years and said Mr. Gross was not technically part of the swap but released separately on “humanitarian grounds.”
In addition, the United States will ease restrictions on remittances, travel and banking relations and Cuba will release 53 Cuban prisoners identified as political prisoners by the United States government. Although the decades-old American embargo on Cuba will remain in place for now, the administration signaled that it would welcome a move by Congress to ease or lift it should lawmakers choose to.
“Today, the United States is taking historic steps to chart a new course in our relations with Cuba and to further engage and empower the Cuban people,” the White House said in a written statement.
READ MORE »
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/18/world/americas/us-cuba-relations.html?emc=edit_na_20141217

Belgrade will take steps to strengthen Armenian-Serbian relations

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armenian-serbia-fmOfficial Belgrade will take steps to strengthen Armenian-Serbian relations.

Serbian President Tomislav Nikolić noted the aforesaid at his meeting, on Thursday in the Serbian capital city of Belgrade, with Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian.

Nikolić added that the Serbian and the Armenian peoples are connected to one another by historical friendly similarities.

In turn, Nalbandian conveyed to President Nikolić the best wishes by Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan, and expressed confidence that the Serbian leader’s forthcoming visit to Armenia’s capital city Yerevan will give new impetus to the expanding and deepening of cooperation between the two countries.

During the talk, the interlocutors stressed the willingness of both sides to further promote Armenian-Serbian relations, and underscored the establishment of reciprocal diplomatic representations in the two capital cities.

Tomislav Nikolić and Edward Nalbandian also exchanged views on several regional and international matters and the avenues for their resolution.

Turkey’s Erdogan speaks on relations with Armenia

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ungree-erdoganTurkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that Turkey favors peace in relations with Armenia.

Speaking at the official opening of the new legislative year of the Turkish parliament, Erdogan also reflected on the Karabakh issue and relations with Armenia, reported NTV television of Turkey.

“We [, Turkey,] exhibit a completely principal, objective, peace-advocating, and constructive position in the Cyprus issue, elimination of the occupation of Azerbaijani lands, [and] relations with Armenia and the events [that occurred] in 1915,” the Turkish president stated.

Serzh Sargsyan: Armenian-Arab relations date back to depths of centuries

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arab-armenianYEREVAN. – On Tuesday, Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan’s new Ambassador to Armenia, Mohammad Nour Othman Yousef Balkar, presented his credentials to President Serzh Sargsyan.

The President congratulated the ambassador for commencing his diplomatic mission in Armenia, wished him success, and expressed the hope that Ambassador Balkar will use his experience and knowledge to strengthen bilateral relations.

Stressing that Armenian-Arab relations date back to the depths of centuries, Sargsyan noted that it is on this foundation that Armenia develops its relations with the Arab countries, including Jordan.

The Armenian President and the Jordanian diplomat shared the view that there is great potential for the strengthening of interstate relations and the development of cooperation in several domains. In this connection, they underscored the need to expand the legal and the contractual framework between the two countries.

The interlocutors also spoke with delight about the two countries’ cooperation within international organizations.

The new Jordanian ambassador, for his part, assured that he will spare no effort to achieve closer ties between Armenia and Jordan.