gains Archives

g-Angela-Merkel-Serzh-Sargsyan-696x464 By Naira Hayrumyan,

Despite the diplomatic row between Germany and Turkey caused by the Bundestag’s adoption of a resolution formally recognizing the Armenian Genocide in the Ottoman Empire and the German responsibility for this crime, Berlin and Ankara are likely to remain allies, the difference being that Germany will strengthen its positions in its future negotiations with Turkey over migrants and other issues of the European agenda.

Armenia, meanwhile, is trying to evaluate the significance of the Bundestag resolution in terms of Armenian interests. Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan thanked the Germany leadership for what he described as a historical step. The German resolution was also welcomed by Armenia’s foreign minister. However, as experts note, Armenia does not put any legal claims to Turkey and does not demand any material or territorial compensations. Therefore, some note that the adoption of such resolutions cannot have legal and political consequences for Armenia, which officially has not denounced the 1921 Russo-Turkish Treaty, under which Moscow and Ankara have defined the current borders of Armenia.

In this regard, many analysts in Armenia and in the West believe that the adoption of the resolution by the Bundestag more concerns relations between Turkey and Germany than Armenia proper. Germany, which is one of the European leaders, has complicated relations with Turkey. Europe accuses Turkey of conniving at the flow of migrants from the Middle East. Europe has signed an agreement with Turkey on the regulation of the migrant crisis, but immediately after its conclusion, the person who signed it, then Prime Minister of Turkey Ahmet Davutoglu, was dismissed. The issue of the Turkish-European agreement was called into doubt and may be revised, and by adopting the resolution on the Armenian Genocide, Germany has strengthened its positions in the future dialogue.

Western analysts also note that Turkish-EU relations may finally come to a standstill if the Kurds manage to achieve success in Syria and Iraq and declare about the establishment of Kurdistan. In this case, the treaties concluded after the First World War and the collapse of the Ottoman Empire can be revised, too. And then the Armenian issue may reemerge.

Armenian experts also believe that after the adoption of the resolution, Germany, as the current OSCE Chairman-in-Office, may try to take over the Karabakh settlement. Some even claim that Karabakh may be “compensation” for the recognition of the Armenian Genocide. However, in the meantime, Germany states that it remains committed to the format of the OSCE Minsk Group on the Karabakh settlement in which the co-chair roles are assigned to the United States, Russia and France.

It is noteworthy that immediately after the adoption of the resolution by the Bundestag, there have reemerged calls on the outgoing U.S. President Barack Obama to honor his election pledge and officially recognize the Armenian Genocide. Analysts do not rule out that whenever the United States, like Germany, considers it appropriate to put pressure on Turkey, it may also adopt such a resolution.

Germany, which has taken a tough line on Greece, has profited from the country’s crisis to the tune of 100 billion euros ($109 billion), the AFP reports, citing a new study.
The sum represents money Germany saved through lower interest payments on funds the government borrowed amid investor “flights to safety”, the study said.

“These savings exceed the costs of the crisis – even if Greece were to default on its entire debt,” said the private, non-profit Leibniz Institute of Economic Research in its paper.

“Germany has clearly benefited from the Greek crisis.”

When investors are faced with turmoil, they typically seek a safe haven for their money, and export champion Germany “disproportionately benefited” from that during the debt crisis, it said.

“Every time financial markets faced negative news on Greece in recent years, interest rates on German government bonds fell, and every time there was good news, they rose.”

Germany, the eurozone’s effective paymaster, has demanded fiscal discipline and tough economic reforms in Greece in return for consenting to new aid from international creditors.

Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has opposed a Greek debt write-down while pointing to his own government’s balanced budget.

The institute, however, argued that the balanced budget was possible in large part only because of Germany’s interest savings amid the Greek debt crisis.

The estimated 100 billion euros Germany had saved since 2010 accounted for over three percent of GDP, said the institute based in the eastern city of Halle.

The bonds of other countries – including the United States, France and the Netherlands – had also benefited, but “to a much smaller extent”.

Germany’s share of the international rescue packages for Greece, including a new loan being negotiated now, came to around 90 billion euros, said the institute.

“Even if Greece doesn’t pay back a single cent, the German public purse has benefited financially from the crisis,” said the paper.