Next month marks the 20th anniversary of the cease-fire in the zone of the Karabakh conflict that ended hostilities and bloodshed in a war that lasted nearly three years, but after two decades of state ” neither war nor peace “, the still quivering conflict continues to hang like a sword of Damocles over the heads of the peoples of the region.

The Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict that began in the early 20th century, but has been “frozen” during the Soviet period, broke out in 1988, devouring thousands of lives, whose blood has reached the current borders of the region.

In the active phase of the conflict that lasted from 1988 to 1994, including military operations from 1992 to 1994, the Armenian side, including the armed forces of Armenia, Defense Army of Nagorno-Karabakh and units self-defense, have lost 6500 lives. According to data released by the authorities in Baku in January 2014, the number of victims to the Azerbaijani side was 11557. But in 1993 President Heydar Aliyev of Azerbaijan spoke of 16,000 victims. And in February 2007, a number of organizations and non-governmental experts of Azerbaijan reported about 24,000 victims and 4,000 missing soldiers.

Towns and villages in ruins, displaced people, broken lives, but also a liberated country and access to independence … Finally, a cease-fire was signed in May 1994. Signed Bishkek between representatives of Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan with the mediation of Russia and reiterated Moscow marked the beginning of a new period of tension – a war of nerves.

On 5 May 1994, in the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek, the leaders of the parliamentary structures of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh signed what became known as the Bishkek protocol called for ceasefire from 9 May The same day, the authorized Russian President Vladimir Nagorno-Karabakh Kazimirov representative arranged a cease-fire for an indefinite period of time which was signed by the Azerbaijani Defense Minister Mamedrafi Mamedov; May 10 in Yerevan, he was signed by the Armenian Defense Minister Serzh Sarkisian, and May 11, in Nagorno-Karabakh was signed by Samvel Babayan army commander Karabakh. The cease-fire came into force on May 12 at midnight.

Many believe that the absence of major hostilities between Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh in the past 20 years is the one great success of international mediation in place to negotiate a lasting solution to the conflict.

But nearly 20 years after the conclusion of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), in its annual report for 2013, recognized that the search for a lasting political settlement of the Nagorno- Karabakh remains “one of the most complex challenges” in the OSCE region.

“Despite the declaration of a cease-fire in 1994, shootings in the region are common and violations of ceasefire are reported on an almost daily basis. Five civilians and 32 soldiers were wounded by gunshot in 2013 and 14 other casualties. In the same period, the team of Ambassador Andrzej Kasprzyk visited the contact line 16 times, and nine times the border, “notes the OSCE report published earlier this month.

The spokesman of the Armenian Defense Ministry Artsrun Hovhannisyan said that the cease-fire of 1994 was important for Armenia, but regrets that it is not viable and is not become a legal document.

“Our decisions and opinions are always the same: we want peace and we have always advocated this position. It would be nice if the opponent also had this approach, “said Hovhannisyan, noting with regret that after the signing of the cease-fire the Armenian side had every year up to a dozen victims because violations by the Azerbaijani side.

“As strange as it may be, but the opponent has forgotten that in 1994, he was the one who asked the ceasefire, we have copies of this call,” added the spokesman of the Ministry of Defence .

There a few years ago the former Russian co-chair of the Minsk Group Vladimir Kazimorov wrote about it on the site of the Regnum news agency of the Russian Federation. He said that it is the President of the Parliament of Azerbaijan Rasil Guliyev and his vice president Afiyatdin Jalilov who said Moscow and Bishkek it was necessary and urgent to sign a cease-fire. According Kazimirov in 1994 Baku thought only how to keep Barda and Tartar to stop the Armenians reaching the Kur River.

Until today, many in Armenia continues to assert that the cease-fire was the first concession made by the Armenian side as it was more necessary for Azerbaijan who had been at that time in a state of total disrepair and his army were completely demoralized after suffering a number of heavy defeats. Many also believe that the Armenian army, despite the shortage of manpower and material resources, had discharged his duties and without this agreement, Armenian units would have been much more favorable positions on the field today and Azerbaijan was forced to sign a pro-Armenian peace.

Political analyst Tigran Abrahamyan think war is not the way to resolve the conflict and from this point of view the only conclusion of the cease-fire was necessary and important for all parties. At the moment, says Abrahamian, the conflict took enormous resources to Armenia and Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh, where the main problems had been accumulated.

“The signing of the agreement established relative peace in the region, which, however, was not a guarantee against the resumption of hostilities. Nevertheless, the agreement allowed the parties to the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement process shift on the field of peaceful negotiations, “said the analyst.

Director of the Armenian Center for National and International Studies Manvel Sargsyan, who in 1992-1995 was Permanent Representative of Armenia and Karabagh in 1994 was also an advisor to the Minister of Foreign Affairs of NKR and participated in the negotiations of the after the war, says the war has never stopped since it began again with Turkey and probably will continue indefinitely. According to him, the Armenians have just managed to stop this war for some time.

“We managed to create the most important thing – the army. We managed to keep balance based on the power of the army, which is very essential. This is an unprecedented situation in the history of Armenia when we managed to defend ourselves. If you allow someone else to enter the territory, he disarms you and you will not be able to do anything, “said Sarkisian.

According to the Armenian political analysts, the number of violations of the cease-fire along the contact line increases and decreases depending on attempts of Azerbaijan to show the international community that the Nagorno-Karabakh is not frozen. Moreover, they say, by committing violations Azerbaijan also tries to resolve moral and psychological problems that have emerged in the country after the end of the war. Observers believe that before a final solution aggressive behavior Azerbaijan against Nagorno-Karabakh will not cease and that under these conditions Armenia needs to create effective defense mechanisms.

“Already two decades, our army and the entire Armenian people lived in a state of” no war, no peace “, it is a particularly difficult situation for any army and every soldier and officer took separately. But throughout this period, our army has fulfilled its mission with honor, “said Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan in his congratulatory speech on the occasion of the Army Day marked on January 28.

ArmeniaNow