By René Dzagoyan Archives

By: René Dzagoyan

On 27 January 2014, the President Hollande will visit Turkey for an official two-day trip. As required such visits, the power must be invited to make a number of clear answers on the outstanding issues, while providing a few compliments on the state of the host nation. The exercise are likely to be somewhat dangerous, we would propose here some elements of the language think tank of our president, for all practical purposes.

For example, in April 2013, soon after the agreement of the Elysée on the principle of this trip, Bülent Arinc, Turkish Deputy Prime Minister, said that the return to good relations with Ankara held to two conditions: first, that France favors the continuation of negotiations on the accession of Turkey to Europe. November 5, 2013, it was done: at the request of France, the European Commission initiated Chapter 22 on regional policy. Under this chapter, the candidate country must comply with Community law, in particular the criteria of impartiality and transparency in public procurement. Knowing that the Erdogan government is currently experiencing the biggest scandal in its history of corruption, it is unclear how President Hollande will be able to rent these virtues of impartiality and transparency of its guests. On this point, we suggest to allow Mr. Holland a discreet silence.

The second condition Mr. Arinc was on the bill, canceled in February 2012 by the Constitutional Council, to criminalize denial of the Armenian genocide. “We know, said the Deputy Minister to the press, that this law can return to the agenda … François Hollande would have explained very clearly what is his attitude … If a new text is presented, he explained, Turkey reserves the right to return to it had lifted sanctions in the wake of the election of François Hollande. “As France is negotiating for a contract of 17 billion euros for four nuclear reactors, another € 3 billion on a system of anti-aircraft missiles, an order for 117 single-aisle A320 aircraft type and a perspective of long-haul Airbus 150, which reaffirm foolhardy on the same soil Turkey a commitment that cost so dear to the French industry. Again, a prudent silence is required.

To furnish the President can certainly be agreed on “Turkish economic miracle” with its famous 2-digit growth praise. But alas, at the time these lines are written, the Turkish lira plunged into the abyss of devaluation, the Istanbul Stock Exchange recorded nearly $ 15 billion loss, the expected growth rate in 2014 is at- below 3%, the trade deficit widened to USD 1 billion a month, and foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank have almost halved. As for inflation, no one dares to propose a figure as the outlook is alarming. In short, the Turkish miracle nightmare. Also, in the economic field, the utmost discretion is required.

Remain the praises of democratic progress, much vaunted by Mr. Cohn-Bendit, would have encouraged the European accession process. But, alas, helping corruption scandal, where her son was taken even fingers in the pot, Erdogan has launched headlong into setting cut set of the judiciary and police, which the According to the famous Turkish columnist Ertuğrul Özkök leads Turkey straight towards fascism. Risk increases as the Prime Minister has made an agreement with the army, whose support has resulted in the immediate retrial ultranationalist general incarcerated under the Ergenekon conspiracy. Ankara rediscovered the virtues of uniform. The prosecutor in the case, dismissed by the rules, has also lodge a complaint against Mr Erdogan himself to death threats, so that by the time President Hollande squeeze the hand of his host, it should, according to democratic rules, wear handcuffs. Also, make the panegyric of Turkish democracy in these circumstances would, admittedly, pretty bold.

The same applies to the “Zero problem” diplomacy dear to Foreign Minister Davutoglu. Difficult to boast success, because it would raise the murder of three Kurdish activists rue Lafayette, which we now know it was sponsored by Ankara. Equally difficult to praise his contribution to regional peace, given the open war with Damascus, the oil dispute with Baghdad, dissension with Tehran, the blockade with Yerevan, friction with the United States, hostilities with Cyprus, divorce with Israel, quarrels with Egypt and tensions with Greece. Apart from all these countries, Mr. Holland will talk about the rest of the world. Incidentally, Turkey maintains excellent relations with Pakistan, Malaysia and South Korea. It take good few minutes of conversation.

Here are some topics that would be during this trip, quite incongruous to speak. Apart from this, one wonders what Mr. Holland and Mr. Erdogan will say. Anyway, on his return, we bet after long silences commercial contracts shall be duly signed, confirming that François Mitterrand said: “I am the last of the great presidents. After me, there will be more than financial and accounting. “In any case, goodbye, President, or rather Gule, Gule, Holland Effendi!